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datasetof statistics on what appears to be every college basketball team from years 2003-2012

and here's one guys analysis of the 2010 statistics and some of his predictions, just about all of his predictions ended up wrong except that he predicted Vanderbilt was the most likely team to be upset in the first round....there's a lot of interesting sports stuff on the rest of the harvard sports analysis site worth checking out too http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/predicting-ncaa-tournament-upsets-favorite-vulnerability/

The dataset itself is available at the bottom of the page - "Download the data." This page is a competition among data analysts/mathematicians to produce the most accurate predictive model, based on historical hospital admittance data, for finding people likely to enter a hospital in the next year - Giving preventative medicine a leg up by statistically determining the at-risk patients and decreasing the cost of care. Super cool!

the probability seems to be empirically based because it's a scientific prediction from the Tokyo's earthquake research center

"Beau's caretakers at the Yellow River Game Ranch in Lilburn say he has a 94 percent accuracy rating..." I'd say this is an example of subjective probability.