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Obama and former President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail over the past three days in an attempt to save Coakley's campaign, which observers say has been hampered by complacency and missteps.

Obama and former President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail over the past three days in an attempt to save Coakley's campaign, which observers say has been hampered by complacency and missteps.

cnnRelatedTopicKeys.push('Martha_Coakley'); Martha Coakley cnnRelatedTopicKeys.push('Scott_Brown'); Scott Brown cnnRelatedTopicKeys.push('Edward_M_Kennedy'); Edward M. Kennedy cnnRelatedTopicKeys.push('Health_Care_Reform'); Health Care Reform The latest poll, however, showed Brown leading Coakley by 7 points, 52 to 45 percent. The American Research Group survey, taken Friday through Sunday, had a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. No polls released in the past few days showed Coakley ahead. In a sign of the high stakes involved, the Coakley campaign held an afternoon news conference Tuesday to complain that voters in three places received ballots already marked for Brown. McNiff confirmed that the secretary of state's offices received two reports of voters saying they got pre-marked ballots. The suspect ballots were invalidated and the voters received new ballots, McNiff said. Kevin Conroy, the Coakley campaign manager, said the "disturbing incidents" raised questions about the integrity of the election. In response, the Brown campaign issued a statement criticizing Coakley's team. "Reports that the Coakley campaign is making reckless accusations regarding the integrity of today's election is a reminder that they are a desperate campaign," Daniel B. Winslow, the counsel for the Brown campaign, said in the statement. Obama has been both "surprised and frustrated" by the race, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Tuesday. Obama and former President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail over the past three days in an attempt to save Coakley's campaign, which observers say has been hampered by complacency and missteps.

Obama and former President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail over the past three days in an attempt to save Coakley's campaign, which observers say has been hampered by complacency and missteps.

Obama and former President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail over the past three days in an attempt to save Coakley's campaign, which observers say has been hampered by complacency and missteps.

Obama and former President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail over the past three days in an attempt to save Coakley's campaign, which observers say has been hampered by complacency and missteps.

Obama and former President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail over the past three days in an attempt to save Coakley's campaign, which observers say has been hampered by complacency and missteps.

If the federal government doesn't provide the state with an additional $6.9 billion requested by Schwarzenegger, the governor's budget calls for eliminating In-Home Supportive Services, CalWORKS welfare and Healthy Families programs, which provides services to millions of Californians.

"There are recommendations to cut more than $2.9 billion from social service programs," McIntosh said. "This action alone will further push families into poverty, putting them in a dire situation from which they may never recover."

Elimination of these programs will, in turn, impact other areas as well, including the criminal justice system, the homeless population and county welfare rolls. Elimination of the IHSS and CalWORKS programs would put 450,000 people out of work.

That won’t happen.

None of these factors, however, can sustain strong growth past 2010 without a self-sustaining cycle of private spending and income growth. Several obstacles stand in the way of that transition. Through to mid-2009 households had lost $12 trillion, or 19% of their wealth, because of the collapse in house and stock prices. That saps their purchasing power and pushes them to save more, especially those nearing retirement. Though they’ll boost their saving only gradually, that still means consumer spending (about 70% of GDP) will grow more slowly than income, after two decades in which it usually grew more quickly. High unemployment will hold back wage gains (see chart); wage cuts are already commonplace. Leaving aside swings in energy prices, inflation, now about 1.5%, will slip to zero and may turn to deflation in late 2010. Deflation drives up real debt burdens, further sapping consumer spending.

The government won’t let any more big banks fail, but the survivors are neither inclined nor able to expand their lending much. Residential- and commercial-property values fell by $8 trillion, or almost 20%, through to mid-2009, impairing existing loans and eroding the collateral for new ones. Regulators are also proposing to raise capital requirements, which will further encourage bankers to turn down borrowers.

the rest of the world isn’t big or healthy enough, and a steeply falling dollar would inflict deflationary harm on others.

The list of roadblocks is depressing, but America will not slip back into recession or a lost decade akin to Japan’s in the 1990s. It did not enter its crisis with as much overinvestment as others, Japan in particular; its population is still growing (Japan’s is shrinking). It took two years to tackle its banks’ problems; Japan took seven. Boom times will be back. Just not very soon.