Long Game

"Lebanon's Shiite Islamist movement Hezbollah on Wednesday engineered the collapse of the country's coalition government. Eleven ministers representing the Hezbollah-led March 8 Coalition resigned their Cabinet positions, forcing their main opponent, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri (whose Future Movement leads the rival March 14 Coalition), out of office. The move was designed to thwart al-Hariri from working with the U.S.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) to indict Hezbollah members for their alleged involvement in the 2005 assassination of his father, former Lebanese Premier Rafik al-Hariri."

"U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates met with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the second day of his trip to China. Gates' trip has served as a public display of renewed military communication between the two countries, as well as a forerunner to Hu's highly anticipated trip to Washington from Jan. 18-21."

"The P-5+1 talks with Iran will resume Jan. 21-22. For those not tuned into the obscure jargon of the diplomatic world, these are the talks between the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia), plus Germany - hence, P-5+1. These six countries will be negotiating with one country, Iran. The meetings will take place in Istanbul under the aegis of yet another country, Turkey. Turkey has said it would only host this meeting, not mediate it. It will be difficult for Turkey to stay in this role."

"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Monday that Germany was not pressuring the Portuguese government to seek financial assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The statement followed a Der Spiegel report that Germany and France were trying to force the Portuguese leadership to request aid. The denial from Schaeuble came as financial media reported that bond traders claimed the European Central Bank was intervening Monday to buy Portuguese debt in secondary markets. The Portuguese yield rose to more than 7 percent before settling at 6.93 percent. Greece asked for its bailout in March 2010 as yields went above 8 percent."

""Reason is man's only means of grasping reality and of acquiring knowledge." The first difficulty we must confront is trying to entangle what is meant by "reason." As far as I can make out, "reason," for Rand, means creating a logically consistent body of knowledge based on the evidence of the senses. Rand is fond of describing "reason" in terms of "integration," which seems to assume is a kind of "whole" made up of indivdual parts that have been logically conjoined together. Rand claims that "The method which reason employs in this process is logic-and logic is the art of non-contradictory identification." This description entails the additional difficulties involved in trying to figure out what on earth Rand could possibly mean by suggesting that logic is the "art of non-contradictory identification." Logic involves the study of arguments. But here Rand is suggesting that logic has a much larger range, that it involves "identification."" By Greg Nyquist at Ayn Rand Contra Human Nature on January 10, 2011

The Kremlin announced Wednesday that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev is going to visit the Palestinian territories in a few weeks, just as Medvedev's trip to Israel has been canceled. Medvedev had planned to go to Israel on Jan. 17-19, but his trip was postponed due to a strike at the Israeli Foreign Ministry. While this may just seem like a logistical and technical issue, there is a shifting Russian foreign policy strategy, giving Moscow freer capability to act against the Israelis and increase support for the Palestinians. At StratFor on January 6, 2011.

"Any Chinese move to take over Taiwan would trigger a confrontation with the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Is the U.S. prepared to counter this growing threat?"

"When asked whether he preferred building a rail project westward to Europe or eastward to Russia, Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis on Wednesday said the latter option - a railroad to Moscow - would be more justifiable to Latvia. Dombrovskis was careful to add that the decision would be made based on which option was more economically viable, but he said neither project - the high-speed rail to Europe known as "Rail Baltica" or a high-speed rail from Riga to Russia - would hold priority until a thorough economic analysis is conducted. While it seems that the initial statement favoring Russia is relatively mild and reasonable, it is a subtle yet indicative representation of the changing winds in the Baltics."

"On Dec. 15, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent a joint bulletin to state and local law enforcement agencies expressing their concern that terrorists may attack a large public gathering in a major U.S. metropolitan area during the 2010 holiday season. That concern was echoed by contacts at the FBI and elsewhere who told STRATFOR they were almost certain there was going to be a terrorist attack launched against the United States over Christmas."

""An emotion that clashes with your reason is only the carcass of that stale thinking which you forbade your mind to revise." How on earth did Rand know this? Without providing even a jot of evidence, it becomes impossible for a rational person to judge this assertion." By Greg Nyquist at Ayn Rand Contra Human Nature on December 28, 2010.

"The conscious mind "programs" the subconscious mind. Rand's view is that the conscious mind serves as a kind of gate keeper for what gets into the unconscious mind. Again, we are faced with the question: How did she know this to be true? Where is her evidence? Is this merely a speculative conjecture? If so, why doesn't Rand make this clear?" By Greg Nyquist at Ayn Rand Contra Human Nature on December 21, 2010.

"Europe is on the cusp of change. An EU heads-of-state summit Dec. 16 launched a process aimed to save the common European currency. If successful, this process would be the most significant step toward creating a singular European power since the creation of the European Union itself in 1992 - that is, if it doesn't destroy the euro first."

"Contemplating the shortcomings of the younger generation has ever been a hobby of the elder. As I start to transition to the latter population (perhaps a bit early for my age), I've found myself worrying more and more about the kids, and how little they seem to appreciate things. That kind of complaint is neither constructive or original. But the fact is that the kids are growing up pretty weird these days, because of the way technology has outpaced our institutions of learning and standards of knowledge."

"NEW YORK, Nov. 12 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Nickelodeon research study, titled "The Family GPS," reports that the generation gap is a thing of the past as today's increasingly multi-generational American families are united by an expanding set of values and converging tastes. Released today, the Nickelodeon study finds that new cultural attitudes, technology and the current economic climate are drawing today's American families closer together and changing how parents raise, and regard, their children compared to how their parents raised them. Nickelodeon's "The Family GPS" study was conducted as part of an ongoing partnership with Harris Interactive in which the companies will study the changing face and role of the family in the U.S. "As Millennials become parents and Baby Boomers become grandparents, today's families are different from what we've seen and come to expect from previous generations, in that staying together and playing together are the top priorities among everyone in the household," said Ron Geraci, Senior Vice President, Nickelodeon Research. "Instead of being divided by tastes and clashing over values and things like music and entertainment choices, today's parents, kids and grandparents are being drawn closer together by them, as well as embracing new value systems of tolerance and acceptance.""

"Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, a massive diplomatic entourage and a business delegation representing 100 firms arrived in India on Wednesday for a three-day visit. Wen began the visit by addressing concerns over the growing Sino-Indian rivalry, proclaiming that there need be no essential conflict between the Dragon and the Elephant and that Asia has room enough for both of them. After meeting with Indian Premier Manmohan Singh, Wen will travel to Pakistan, a staunch Chinese ally and Indian arch-foe, to emphasize where his deepest commitments lie. "

""Emotions are not tools of cognition." Where is Rand's evidence for this view? Again, we have nothing -- merely her own say-so. In Objectivism, emotions are equated with mere "whims"; to allow one's judgment to be affected by emotions is tantamount to committing the horrible crime of "whim worshipping." This, of course, is an argument ad hominem with no scientific standing whatsoever."

"With Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and al-Iraqiya List leader Iyad Allawi meeting in Baghdad Tuesday night, a governing coalition appears near. And with a review of the efficacy of the counterinsurgency-focused strategy in Afghanistan due to the White House before the end of the week, the Iraqi question appears to be settling out while Afghanistan remains as unsettled as ever. But in looking at the months ahead, the reverse is also true: While Afghanistan is likely to continue along its current path, the fate of Iraq hangs in the balance."

"For me, Christmas has always been a secular occasion. I grew up in an unaffiliated household. My mother is Catholic, though she didn't practice for most of my childhood. My father was raised in a devoutly Jewish home, but he always adored Christmas. My grandmother tells, half-fondly and half-sadly, of when he was 6 and asked whether he could become Christian so that Santa Claus would pay him a visit. He eventually stopped practicing Judaism, but his love of Christmas never went away." By Torie Bosch at Slate Magazine on December 23, 2008

"Julian Assange has declared that geopolitics will be separated into pre-"Cablegate" and post-"Cablegate" eras. That was a bold claim. However, given the intense interest that the leaks produced, it is a claim that ought to be carefully considered. Several weeks have passed since the first of the diplomatic cables were released, and it is time now to address the following questions: First, how significant were the leaks? Second, how could they have happened? Third, was their release a crime? Fourth, what were their consequences? Finally, and most important, is the WikiLeaks premise that releasing government secrets is a healthy and appropriate act a tenable position?" By George Friedman at StratFor on December 14, 2010.

""Emotions are the result of your value judgments," Rand declared in her Playboy Interview; "they are caused by your basic premises, which you may hold consciously or subconsciously, which may be right or wrong." How did Rand know this? Where is her evidence for this extraordinary assertion? Surely a theory so bold, so unconventional, so contrary to obvious facts commonly known should be supported with evidence strong enough to shift the balance of plausibility in its favor!" By Greg Nyquist at Ayn Rand Contra Human Nature on December 13, 2010.