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In a new Wisconsin poll by CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 51% to 46%. The survey of 859 likely voters was taken Friday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The results are similar to the last poll by the same sponsors, a mid-September survey in which Obama led 50% to 47%. Four other states were polled at the same time. In the latest survey, Obama led McCain 50% to 47% in Ohio and 53% to 45% in New Hampshire. The two were tied at 49% in North Carolina, and McCain led 51% to 46% in Indiana.

The plans of presidential candidates are never set in stone, if only because circumstances and the makeup of Congress change after the election. The uncertainty is even deeper in this election because Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain laid out most of their agenda before the government committed up to $700 billion to address the financial crisis. Obama acknowledges what is true for both: "The next president will have to scale back his agenda and some of his proposals." Yet neither candidate has spelled out what promises might have to be postponed or changed. With that caution, here's a look at where McCain and Obama stand on a selection of issues.

For months, the magic that once surrounded Barack Obama's presidential candidacy was lost in a fog of petty politics: the negative ads, the Clinton dramas, the degrading of Obama to the status of a mere "celebrity," the back-and-forth with John McCain over who is an elitist and who is a flip-flopper. The recent direction of the campaign reflects a basic political fact: If this contest turns out to be a big election, Obama will almost certainly win. But if it is converted into a small election, Obama could well lose. And the McCain campaign has done all it could to bring Obama back to earth and to dissipate the sense of possibility he once inspired. If it did nothing else, this week's Democratic National Convention served as a reminder of the historical import of Obama's nomination and the astonishing transformation of the country in just three generations.

Now John McCain is pea-green with envy. That's the only explanation for why a man who prides himself on honor, a man who vowed not to take the low road in the campaign, having been mugged by W. and Rove in South Carolina in 2000, is engaging in a festival of juvenilia. The Arizona senator who built his reputation on being a brave proponent of big solutions is running a schoolyard campaign about tire gauges and Paris Hilton, childishly accusing his opponent of being too serious, too popular and not patriotic enough. Even his own mother, the magical 96-year-old Roberta McCain, let slip that she thought the Paris Hilton-Britney Spears ad was "kinda stupid."

* Over $15 million spent in presidential TV advertising since conclusion of conventions * More than 55% of McCain ads are in conjunction with RNC * Nearly all Obama ads all paid for with candidate money * Obama airs larger percentage of negative ads than McCain * Traditional battleground states receive majority of ad spending

Summary: On NPR's Morning Edition, Mara Liasson asserted that a new McCain campaign ad "catalogued all of the false or sexist or awful things that Democrats and Obama supporters have said about [Gov.] Sarah Palin." In fact, the ad did not "catalogue" any "false" statements the Obama campaign or other Democrats have made about Palin and, as FactCheck.org noted, the ad "distorts" each of the three Obama campaign statements it uses "to make the case" that Sen. Barack Obama is "being 'disrespectful' of Palin."

By running an attack campaign that is almost a parody of George W. Bush's 2000 and 2004 exertions, McCain is chucking away his greatest opportunity, which is to show that he could reform Republicanism and offer voters an alternative way of breaking with a past they have come to loathe.

He leads nationally in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll by 53 percent to 43 percent. He leads, too, by a wide margin in estimates of the Electoral College. Virtually all of the closest states left at this point voted for President Bush four years ago. The presidential race is not over, but at this point, Obama has a better chance of becoming president than McCain, and as a result, the questions ought to be going toward him as much or more than McCain -- questions not of tactics but of substance.

A new McCain ad calls Obama a celebrity (true) who says he'll raise taxes on electricity (false).

A McCain-Palin TV ad accuses Obama of being "disrespectful" of Palin, but it distorts quotes to make the case.

Short answer: Not much

This should be a very informative debate. The video will be archived if you can't view it live. Looking forward to hearing an education focus for the Presidential election!

Join us for "Education and the Next President," a live debate from Teachers College, Columbia University, with Linda Darling-Hammond, education adviser to Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama, and Lisa Graham Keegan, education adviser to Presidential Republican nominee John McCain. The event is being exclusively Webcast by edweek.org with generous support from NASSP. A video archive of the event will be available Wed., Oct 22, at noon.

The Democratic Party's outreach to young people and to people of faith seems to be paying off. A new survey on faith and American politics shows Democratic nominee Barack Obama making inroads among some believers and moving ahead of Republican John McCain among Roman Catholics, largely because of young Catholics' support. In the biggest shift over the past four years, Senator Obama now wins the backing of 60 percent of voters who attend religious services once or twice a month, a jump from the 49 percent the Democratic nominee won in 2004.

Barack Obama is gaining support in the rural, conservative town of McArthur, Ohio, reflecting nationwide trends in which the Illinois senator has been consolidating support among independents and in some traditional Republican strongholds.With just three weeks until the election, political analysts say absent an October surprise it will be difficult for Republican John McCain to turn things around. That's a challenge his campaign, which has been written off before, says it is delighted to take up.

With 25 days to go until the election, Barack Obama is presently at his all-time highs in four of the six national tracking polls (Research 2000, Battleground, Hotline and Zogby) and is just one point off his high in Gallup. He has emerged with clear leads in both Florida and Ohio, where there are several polls out today. He is blowing McCain out in most polls of Pennsylvania and Michigan, and is making states like West Virgina and Georgia competitive

By all rights, there should be a revolt at this week's Republican convention against John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate--for the very same reasons so many Republicans opposed President Bush's selection of Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court. Palin is, if anything, less qualified for the vice presidency (and the presidency) than Miers was for the court. But there is one big difference: Palin passes all the right-wing litmus tests, which means she is unlikely to suffer Miers' fate. It's amusing to watch Republicans play gender politics. At the time Bush chose Miers, he was under pressure to pick a woman to replace retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. But most of the plausible women jurists were either too moderate to satisfy conservatives or so right wing that they faced serious confirmation problems.

The GOP opens its convention here Monday as a party in peril. Hobbled by an unpopular president, a disillusioned and divided base, and low poll ratings on almost every domestic issue, the party of Nixon and Reagan and Bush may well be at the end of a historic 40-year grasp on power, say conservative thinkers and political historians. Republicans lost the House of Representatives in 2006, and are now at risk of losing the Senate. They were defeated in special elections this year in congressional districts that in some cases hadn't elected a Democrat since the days of Lyndon Johnson.

But now, seemingly all of a sudden, conservatives are the ones who are tongue-tied, as demonstrated by Sen. John McCain's limping, message-free presidential campaign. McCain's ongoing difficulties in exciting voters aren't just a tactical problem; his woes stem largely from his long-standing adherence to a set of ideas that simply haven't worked in practice.

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