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By all rights, there should be a revolt at this week's Republican convention against John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate--for the very same reasons so many Republicans opposed President Bush's selection of Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court. Palin is, if anything, less qualified for the vice presidency (and the presidency) than Miers was for the court. But there is one big difference: Palin passes all the right-wing litmus tests, which means she is unlikely to suffer Miers' fate. It's amusing to watch Republicans play gender politics. At the time Bush chose Miers, he was under pressure to pick a woman to replace retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. But most of the plausible women jurists were either too moderate to satisfy conservatives or so right wing that they faced serious confirmation problems.

But now, seemingly all of a sudden, conservatives are the ones who are tongue-tied, as demonstrated by Sen. John McCain's limping, message-free presidential campaign. McCain's ongoing difficulties in exciting voters aren't just a tactical problem; his woes stem largely from his long-standing adherence to a set of ideas that simply haven't worked in practice.

Barack Obama is gaining support in the rural, conservative town of McArthur, Ohio, reflecting nationwide trends in which the Illinois senator has been consolidating support among independents and in some traditional Republican strongholds.With just three weeks until the election, political analysts say absent an October surprise it will be difficult for Republican John McCain to turn things around. That's a challenge his campaign, which has been written off before, says it is delighted to take up.

The GOP opens its convention here Monday as a party in peril. Hobbled by an unpopular president, a disillusioned and divided base, and low poll ratings on almost every domestic issue, the party of Nixon and Reagan and Bush may well be at the end of a historic 40-year grasp on power, say conservative thinkers and political historians. Republicans lost the House of Representatives in 2006, and are now at risk of losing the Senate. They were defeated in special elections this year in congressional districts that in some cases hadn't elected a Democrat since the days of Lyndon Johnson.