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Crunching the Numbers - September 05, 2008 Nate Silver created a remarkably accurate computer system that projects stats for baseball players and teams. Now he's turned his attention to polling data for the presidential election with his website Five Thirty Eight. Silver explains how his site can out-perform the polling firms, whose data he relies on.

No controversy looms larger than that about "likely" voters. Polls that count them, rather than registered voters, are usually more accurate, but maybe not this year. Pollsters determine who is likely to cast a ballot by asking questions such as whether they voted in 2004, are following the campaign and plan to vote. Respondents get a point for each "right" answer.