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Benjamin McKeown

This year's El Nino will be the strongest in 18 years, WMO says - Technology & Science ... - 0 views

  • The current El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to peak between October and January and could turn into one of the strongest on record, experts from the World Meteorological Organization said at a news conference on Tuesday.
  • waters in the east-central Pacific Ocean are likely to be more than 2 degrees hotter than average,
  • Arctic warming effect at work on the Atlantic jetstream current.
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  • "The truth is we don't know what will happen. Will the two patterns reinforce each other? Will they cancel each other? Are they going to act in sequence? Are they going to be regional? We really don't know,"
  • it is still unclear how global warming is affected by the frequency or magnitude of El Nino events.
Benjamin McKeown

How Successful Were the Millennium Development Goals? A Final Report | New Security Beat - 0 views

  • “despite many successes, the poorest and most vulnerable people are being left behind.”
  • eport calls for better data collection practices to create a post-2015 development agenda that can overcome the MDG’s shortcomings.
  • number of people living in extreme poverty and proportion of undernourished people in developing regions has declined by more than half since 1990,
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  • The maternal mortality ratio has declined by 45 percent worldwide, and the proportion of the global population using an improved drinking water source rose from 76 percent to 91 percent
  • Those still left out, however, are increasingly concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, and all across the globe, women and young people face the highest odds of living in poverty
  • Conflict and displacement is taking a toll as well.
  • While hunger has fallen in most areas, projections indicate that the prevalence of undernourishment in the Middle East will rise by 32 percent between 2014 and 2016 due to war, civil unrest, and increasing numbers of refugees.
  • Progress in maternal health is sharply divided along rural-urban lines
  • marginalized and easily forgotten amidst promising overall trends. “Millions of people are being left behind, especially the poorest and those disadvantaged because of their sex, age, disability, ethnicity, or geographic location,”
  • We need to tackle root causes and do more to integrate the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development,
  • “employment opportunities have diminished in both developing and developed regions
  • he employment-to-population ratio, which measures what percentage of the working population is employed, has declined around the world since 1990 with the biggest drops in East and South Asia.
  • rapid urbanization is taxing already-inadequate infrastructure. The proportion of the urban population living in slums in developing regions fell from 39 percent in 2000 to 30 percent in 2014, surpassing the MDG target. However, the total number of urban residents living in slums continues to grow as a result of accelerating urbanization and population growth
  • Population growth and increased consumption have also stressed the environment, presenting challenges that overshadow progress on the seventh MDG
  • While ozone-depleting substances have nearly been eliminated since 1990 and the ozone layer is expected to recover by midcentury, carbon dioxide emissions have risen by more than 50 percent in the past 25 years
  • Between 1998 and 2011, the number of countries experiencing water stress increased from 36 to 41. Water scarcity currently affects more than 40 percent of the world population, a statistic that is only projected to increase.
  • For the global poor whose livelihoods are directly tied to natural resources and suffer the most from environmental degradation, climate change hinders development in other sectors. That’s why environmental change is a much bigger focus in the Sustainable Development Goals, set to be adopted later this year.
Benjamin McKeown

Global warming 'will make our winters colder' - Climate Change - Environment - The Inde... - 0 views

  • Climate scientists believe they have found evidence to suggest that the loss of floating Arctic sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas north of Scandinavia can affect the global circulation of air currents and lead to bitterly cold winds blowing for extended periods in winter over Central Asia and Europe, including the UK.
  • the cooling effect is unlikely to last beyond this century
  • Rising global temperatures will eventually cancel out any localised cooling caused by loss of Arctic sea ice, although they said it is not possible to predict when this will happen.
Benjamin McKeown

Admit it: we can't measure our ecological footprint | New Scientist - 0 views

  • “when humanity exhausted nature’s budget for the year” and began “drawing down local resource stocks and accumulating carbon dioxide in the atmosphere”. This year it was on 20 August, the earliest date yet.
  • “so misleading as to preclude their use in any serious science or policy context,” it says in a paper in PLoS Biology.
  • The footprint analysis does not really measure our overuse of the planet’s resources at all. If anything, it underestimates it.
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  • It does this by measuring the productive land and sea area available – cropland and pasture, forests and fishing grounds – and matching that against the demands placed on them. This biological accountancy system concludes that planet Earth has a biocapacity of 12 billion hectares, and a human demand equivalent to 18 billion hectares. Hence the 1.5 Earths figure. Our footprint is 50 per cent too big.
  • I had assumed that the analysis assessed the damaging environmental consequences of how we use the land – things like soil erosion and the overuse of water reserves. But no. It only measures land area.
  • “Local ecosystem abuse is a significant problem [but] to make reliable adjustments would require data sets that do not exist,” he writes. Or, as he told me: “Our current accounts cannot include soil erosion. Hence cropland use equals cropland availability.”
  • It uses UN statistics to compare the timber we harvest against annual growth. The conclusion is that, while we are deforesting some areas, growth elsewhere more than makes up for the loss. This is reflected in a surplus in the accounts.
  • If the calculation is to be believed, while some fish stocks are being over-exploited, a greater number are under-exploited and overall fish biomass is increasing. That’s another surplus
Benjamin McKeown

Canada Breaking Logjam on Arctic Equipment - 0 views

  • irst with new patrol ships and then by upgrading utility aircraft for operations in the country's northern regions.
  • Five ships will be constructed by Irving Shipbuilding of Canada, while Lockheed Martin is handling onboard combat systems in the CAN $3.5 billion (US $3.4 billion) project.
  • Royal Canadian Air Force's CC-138 Twin Otter aircraft, which are used for utility transports in the Arctic. The project is expected to cost $20 million to $49 million.
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  • "Up in the north, it's still about survival," he said.With that in mind, the Canadian Army plans to outfit individual soldiers with new winter warfare equipment, including snowshoes, skis and toboggans. Up to $49 million will be spent on that gear with deliveries to begin in 2021.
  • he Army plans to purchase up to 100 all-terrain vehicles capable of operations in the snow.
  • Increasing the Canadian government and military's presence in the resource-rich Arctic is a key defense platform for Conservative Party Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
  • Harper contends that the increased military and government presence is needed because oil, gas and minerals in the Arctic are critical to the country's economic growth. The types of incidents the Canadian Forces would most likely have to respond to in the Arctic, Jolin said, would be a major environmental disaster or a search-and-rescue operation, such as aiding a commercial cruise ship that has capsized after hitting an uncharted obstacle.
  • "The biggest thing will be coordination, so you'll want to have the ability to mount a command post, have good radios and radars, good surveillance," he said. "It's about command and control, power generation and communications."
  • construction of two polar communications and weather satellites.
  • The Canadian military also has an increased surveillance capability planned for the Arctic, dubbed Polar Epsilon 2. The system will use the data produced by the Canadian government's Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM) spacecraft currently under design. The RCM satellites are scheduled for launch in 2018.
  • Originally the plan was to build a deep-water port at Nanisivik, but because of the high costs of construction in the Arctic that has been scaled back to a $130 million refueling site for the Royal Canadian Navy. The site will be used to support the new Arctic offshore patrol ships.
Benjamin McKeown

MWC 2016: Facebook uses AI to map people's homes - BBC News - 0 views

  • We believe this data has many more impactful applications, such as socio-economic research and risk assessment for natural disasters," Facebook said in a blog.
  • "I am torn in my reaction between excitement at the technical innovation and concern about the public policy issues," said Emily Taylor, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank.
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  • But the British Red Cross charity said the initiative could potentially help it locate vulnerable communities.Finer details
  • Facebook intends to use the maps to inform its Internet.org initiative, which aims to connect more people to the internet.
  • The company is currently developing drones that would extend internet signals beyond cities via lasers beamed between the aircraft.
  • "There are many areas globally that still remain off the digital map," said British Red Cross maps expert Andrew Braye."These areas are also home to vulnerable communities at risk from natural disasters or conflict.
  • "Organisations that share open data are enabling the humanitarian sector to respond more rapidly."The information is then available to emergency responders and assists with decision-making."
Benjamin McKeown

El Nino and extreme weather will be a theme of 2016 - 0 views

  • In fact, it’s probably the strongest that’s ever been measured. I
  • In fact, due to an atmospheric lag, extreme weather will likely keep getting worse for several more months. Though El Niño is typically the most powerful player among the world’s constantly feuding meteorological morphologies, it takes months for its burst of heat to filter around the globe from the tropical Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the El Niño regions of the Pacific usually peak in November or December, but globally-averaged temperatures don’t typically peak until between February and July of the following year.
  • Though El Niño is the proximate cause of many of this year’s weather records, its effects are an upward wiggle on top of the slow-rolling steamroller of climate change.
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  • Nearly 100 million people worldwide are facing food and water shortages this year due to drought and floods linked to El Niño.
  • current
  • El Niño is also helping to spread vector-borne diseases, like Zika, malaria, and dengue fever. And all the crazy weather is creating an uncertain economic environment, too.
  • been a few Florida tornado outbreaks th
  • This is what weather chaos looks like. Thankfully, climate scientists are using this rare event to learn as much as they can about what the super El Niño might tell them about future events and climate change—like in coral reefs, which are especially threatened this year.
  • his El Niño will transition to a La Niña—featuring an unusually cool patch of tropical Pacific waters—by late this year.
Benjamin McKeown

Good practice - 3x1 Citizens' Initiative - 0 views

  • The 3x1 initiative started as the 2x1 programme, which was established in Zacatecas, Mexico in 1993. This initiative aims to expand Home Town Associations' (HTA) community development funds: for every dollar contributed by HTA, the different government levels match this contribution. The 3x1 initiative stared operations in 2002. Projects include support for the church, town beautification, basic assistance in health and education, and constructing and improving public infrastructure. A small number of projects support wealth generation activities. Twenty-seven states in Mexico and 40 HTAs in the United States currently participate in this programme.
  • In, 2002 the 3x1 projects totalled US$ 43.5 million, a quarter coming from HTAs. Zacatecas received over one-third of the allocation, while Jalisco, Guanajuato, and Michoacan also participated significantly. Ten per cent of the projects focused on electrifications and economic infrastructure and over ten per cent focused on social infrastructure. Most of the communities targeted suffer basic development problems and have high emigration rates, and are in need of basic public infrastructure.
  • First, funds tend to flow to non-marginal communities; and, second, most projects funded are not productive. In response, the Mexican government has introduced a quota for marginal communities, and since 2002, to insist on productive investment.
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  • The practice encourages partnership between Mexicans abroad, local community leaders, and state and federal authorities.
Benjamin McKeown

Stretching the Colorado River : CBMWD - 0 views

  • The Colorado River basin is experiencing a chronic shortage due to natural flows along with a short-term problem of the current drought conditions. Additinally, Lake Mead’s natural flow patterns are projected to drop about 20 feet during 2014. An informative piece on this river rcently ran in the New York Times.
  • Reducing dependence on the Colorado River through voluntary agriculture-to-urban water transfers is one of the benefits of the Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA)
  • The QSA defines the rights to a portion of water from the Colorado River for four water districts in Southern California
Benjamin McKeown

Bold steps: Japan's remedy for a rapidly aging society - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • Ms. Shimamura worked part-time in a hotel for years, and at the age of 65 began working full-time as a janitor – retiring only when she was 85.
  • long-term-care insurance program
  • Here, she has food, shelter, scheduled activities and the attentive care of a Filipino health care worker.
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  • hospital's long-term-care ward
  • Japanese leaders have made radical changes to the way health care is delivered in recent decades, most notably with the introduction of long-term-care insurance in 2000. The system is far from perfect, but Japan has been unafraid to improve the system as they learned its faults, and as an economic boom gave way to zero growth.
  • ut Japan's government, businesses and society are facing these challenges earlier than others, allowing the world to learn and benefit from their stumbles, innovations and experiments.
  • 5 per cent of Japan's population is currently over the age of 65,
  • where the hospital says there are no trainee nurses.
  • this demographic is forecast to make up a full 40 per cent of the country's population by 2060
  • 2010 and 2060, the percentage of Japanese citizens over the age of 75 will more than double from 11 per cent to 27 per cent
  • he absolute number of old people will soon level off in Japan, but the proportion of the population who are young is declining rapidly: The percentage of Japanese younger than 19 years old, who constituted 40 per cent of the population in 1960, will decline to just 13 per cent in 2060.
  • apan's total population peaked in 2010 at around 127 million people and has already begun to decline. In 2014, the country lost a record 268,000 people, as deaths continued to outstrip births.
  • ging society is a reality, as well as a business opportunity.
  • Lawson Inc.,
  • "seniors' salon" with a blood pressure monitor, pamphlets on municipal health care services and nursing homes, and on-staff social workers.
  • he store also has a special section featuring adult diapers, special wipes for bathing the elderly, straw cups, a gargling basin and detergent that is tough on urine and perfect for bed mats and wheelchair coverings. Staff will also deliver heavier items, such as bags of rice or water, to local residents.
  • Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration is concerned about how Japan's aging and shrinking work force will slow down the national economy. One piece of Mr. Abe's so-called Abenomics revival program – which also includes getting more women in the workplace – is an emphasis on new medical technologies, including experimental regenerative medicine and cell therapy. The hope is that with two new acts governing regenerative medicine to help commercialize technologies more quickly, the Japanese government can save money on future health care costs while spurring the creation of a valuable new industry – particularly in bio-medical hubs such as the one in Kobe, which features a gleaming new mini-city of medical buildings, research centres and hospitals on a man-made island near the port city's airport.
  • macro level, Japan's predicament is prosperity, which is always followed by lower fertility rates and higher life expectancy. At 83.4 years, Japan has the longest life expectancy at birth in the world, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Many Japanese people are also fearful of the type of immigration that has sustained slow population growth in the industrialized West.
  • The elderly in Japan, similar to seniors across Asia, are less likely to live with their children
  • women, after decades of opting out of a career after giving birth, are also being encouraged by the government to re-enter the work force, something that may eventually help boost Japan's declining labour numbers, as the government hopes, but also prevents women from acting as caregivers.
  • small baby boom "echo" took place between 1971 and 1974
  • Liberal Democratic Party to expand the country's health care system as Japan aged, but by the 1990s, the enormous price tag raised the spectre of tax hikes.
  • Japan chose to supplement its national pension plan with long-term-care insurance (LTCI), which was implemented in 2000.
  • one of the most generous long-term-care systems in the world in terms of coverage and benefits."
  • People pay into the system starting in their 40s and are eligible to receive benefits starting at 65, or earlier in the case of illness.
  • assigns the person a care level.
  • allowing the patient to choose between competing institutions and service providers offering everything from home visits, bathing and help getting groceries to paying for short stays in hospitals or long-term residence in nursing homes and specialized group homes for dementia patients.
  • The LTCI system covers up to $2,900 a month in services, as opposed to cash payment, and does require "co-payments" from patients. LTCI co-payments are capped or waived for low-income individuals, and the system saves money by providing options other than full-on institutionalization.
  • has demonstrated to other governments around the world that it pays to adjust programs before problems become systemic.
  • The LTCI system was originally designed to alleviate the strain on family caregivers, but that hasn't entirely happened. Research shows that LTCI, in terms of freeing up family carers to work and have more free time for themselves, has only marginally benefited caregivers, and only then from wealthier families.
Benjamin McKeown

US trade war would make world 'poorer and more dangerous' - BBC News - 0 views

  • Most recently, China announced new trade tariffs on $60bn of US goods, including products such as liquefied natural gas, produced in states loyal to the US President Donald Trump.
  • There will be great and fast economic retaliation against China if our farmers, ranchers and/or industrial workers are targeted!" he said. US tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports came into effect last month.
  • n this worst case scenario, the US economy would take a significant hit, while economic growth in China would drop below 5% in 2019, compared with a current prediction of 6.2%
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  • impose a 25% on all imported cars
  • While the IMF said UK interest rate rises would need to rise over the next few years to keep a lid on inflation,
Benjamin McKeown

Looming megadroughts in western US would make current drought look minor | Environment ... - 0 views

  • California is in its sixth year of drought, which was barely dented by rains brought by the El Niño climate event and sparked a range of water restrictions in the state. But warming temperatures and uncertain rainfall mean that if more isn’t done to slow climate change, droughts lasting 35 years are likely to blight western states by the end of the century, according to the study, published in Science Advances.
  • Such a megadrought would impose “unprecedented stress on the limited water resources”
  • the study predicts a 70% chance of a megadrought by the end of the century,
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