The 2020 U.S. presidential election has driven significant action across crypto-powered predictive markets. The election markets on major crypto-asset derivatives exchange FTX saw wild volatility in the wake of election day. For example, TRUMP tokens, redeemable for $1 each should the incumbent president secure re-election, swung from $0.38 prior to the close of polls to less than $0.09 the next day. Ethereum-powered decentralized predictions platform Augur also saw significant action, as did Matic-powered decentralized prediction platform Polymarket.
Prediction markets are a subject that has interested me for many years. The idea of allowing anyone in the public to make bets about future events, and using the odds at which these bets are made as a credibly neutral source of predicted probabilities of these events, is a fascinating application of mechanism design. Closely related ideas, like futarchy, have always interested me as innovative tools that could improve governance and decision-making. And as Augur and Omen, and more recently PolyMarket, have shown, prediction markets are a fascinating application of blockchains (in all three cases, Ethereum) as well.
The first debate of the 2020 U.S. presidential election had no clear winner, but crypto-powered prediction platforms are having a field day. Election futures on crypto derivatives exchange FTX boomed, with the platform's CEO reporting more than $4 million in open interest trying to pick the winner between Democrat Joe Biden, and Republican Donald Trump. Volumes on FTX are amplified by leverage. On predictive platforms that do not offer leverage, more modest six-figure volumes were recorded. Polymarket saw more than $100,000 in volume flow into its 'Will Trump win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?' market on September 30.
Some investors anticipate the coin to grow in the upcoming month. If SHIB price ends its trade for 2022 on a bullish note and carries forward its legacy. With further impetus from initiatives such as DAO, Shiba Inu game, and NFTs, the Shiba INU Price Prediction according to Coinpedia could breach the target of $0.00002962.
"One of the most popular prediction markets will have to close its doors after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said it failed to comply with the terms of a no-action letter. PredictIt has operated in the US since October 2014 under the protection of a No Action letter from the CFTC. The company's Twitter account brands it "the stock market for politics." Users purchase and trade shares representing an outcome priced by public consensus. Traders will see a larger payout if they place their predictions when the public disagrees and the shares for the outcome are priced lower. If the trader is right, the value of the shares rise and traders can either sell their shares or hold on until the market closes."
"Though future events are always unknown, you can make reasonable bets about what may happen based on research, data and an understanding of trends. Crypto-based prediction markets make this "bet" explicit, by offering an opportunity for anyone to stake money on what they think will happen. Andrew Eaddy and Clay Graubard, founders of Baserate.io, discussed just this on the Big Ideas stage at Consensus 2022 in Austin, Texas, on Saturday. Their platform, called Baserate.io, enables people to buy shares in the probability of future events."
Stock-to-flow is a ratio that measures a commodity's outstanding stock against fresh market inflows. For Bitcoin, this model has been used to predict astronomical price rises following the upcoming third Bitcoin halving. While some Bitcoiners cling to this model as mathematical proof that "number go up," others are certain that the halving is already "priced in."
Based on Facebook's statement and several anonymous comments made by people tied to the project, Caitlin Long predicts that Facebook will pay interest to holders of its stablecoin, and this will eventually lead to populist calls to repeal corporate subsidies to banks at the heart of the US banking system.
This paper proposes a new framework for supervisors to measure the risk-adjusted performance of machine-learning (ML) credit assessment models, harnessing the process for validating internal ratings-based (IRB) systems for regulatory capital to detect ML's limitations in credit default prediction. From a supervisory standpoint, having a structured methodology for assessing ML models could increase transparency and remove an obstacle to innovation in the financial industry.
A new report from Techemy Capital identifies winning and losing business models, explores underwriting options beyond "cash in the bank" and predicts the likely stablecoin market evolution through to 2022.
A one-standard-deviation increase in the current day's Bitcoin return predicts a 0.33% increase in the next day's. A one-standard-deviation increase in the Twitter post count for the word "Bitcoin" yields a 2.5% increase in week-ahead Bitcoin returns.
UK retail investors will face limits on how much money they can put into P2P platforms under new Financial Conduct Authority rules that experts predicted would trigger the closure of more lenders.
"Crypto is alive and well these days, even if you reject the utopian predictions that it will somehow displace money as we know it. If we have had a hard time seeing the resiliency of the crypto space, it is because we are not used to thinking of futures that are radically different from the present. But those futures - for monetary institutions at least - now seem to be closer than ever before."
According to the IMF paper, several central banks in different countries are considering implementing some form of CBDC. Uruguay has reportedly launched a pilot program already, while the Bahamas, China, Eastern Caribbean Currency Union, Sweden and Ukraine are on the verge of testing their systems.
The result might be a modern version of the type of price volatility that private currencies caused in the US back in the 1830s. Bullard predicts that today's consumers and businesses won't like exchange-rate chaos any more today than people did then. He says that system's unpopularity factored into the government's decision a few decades later to replace it with a national banking system. Out of that chaos, the dollar was able to rule.
In a June report, Gartner predicted that by 2021, more than 90% of current enterprise blockchain platform implementations will fail or need to be replaced in a 18 months period. This is due to a fragmented blockchain market and 'unrealistic expectations' by CIOs.
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