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In a new report, the R3 Team has outlined the key trends and predictions that business leaders, enterprise architects, and application builders should consider in 2020 as they evaluate or re-evaluate their blockchain strategies.

Regulatory sandboxes, modeled after what Kenyan regulators effectively did in the early stages of M-PESA, would provide an excellent opportunity for regulators to experiment with removing barriers to entry to nontraditional financial service providers and relaxed KYC-AML laws. It's difficult to predict with any confidence what innovations will emerge in this environment and achieve the most success. But if Africa's incredible success with mobile money is any indicator, the benefits of this enabling approach make it well worth the try.

The volume of bitcoin inflows into all major exchanges before the crash surged at around block 621.2K-a full three days before the actual dump. One suggestion is that this could've been a coordinated whale movement that initiated the mass sell-off.

"When people discuss the future of payments they tend to predict the end of cash. Our view is different. Not only does Deutsche Bank think cash will be around for a long time, it sees the transition to digital payments as having the potential to do no less than rebalance global economic power."

""Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts predict that either a global cryptocurrency or a national digital currency could undermine the U.S. dollar," the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence wrote in a job listing earlier this month, calling for two researchers to evaluate the impact of the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world reserve currency." https://www.zintellect.com/Opportunity/Details/ICPD-2020-02

"Even if Bitcoin is not, in my opinion, a particularly ideal monetary instrument, this does not preclude it from serving as a safe asset or longer-term store of value. Once market penetration is complete, its return behavior is likely to mimic the return behavior of any other safe asset. Safe assets generally earn a low expected return (that is, they are priced dearly). Investors can expect to earn unusually high returns in a crisis event. But if you buy at the top, you can expect to realize unusually high losses when the crisis subsides. In short, it's a great investment -- assuming you can predict when a crisis will occur and when it will end!"

Avanti Bank & Trust CEO Caitlin Long has declared that the US regulatory crackdown on crypto "has begun." She predicted that authorities will not target crypto-assets directly, instead opting to go after "intermediaries" and "access points" for U.S. dollars into the sector. She also noted that July 13 marked the "key event" in which the comment period for the Federal Reserve's proposed payment system access guidelines ended. Caitlin emphasized the importance of ensuring crypto firms are able to gain direct access to Fed master accounts.

Ex-CFTC Chair Giancarlo: "No perfect solution exists to address the challenges and promises of digital currency, nor can anyone predict all the technological advances these efforts will generate. The same was true when President Eisenhower proposed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and when President Kennedy vowed to put a man on the moon. America must once again establish a team of the world's brightest minds, this time to update a global economic order that ensures our freedom and prosperity."

Roubini predicted that "since the fundamental value of bitcoin is zero and would be negative if a proper carbon tax was applied to its massive polluting energy-hogging production... the current bubble will eventually end in another bust. He concluded by saying that "risky, volatile bitcoin doesn't belong in the portfolios of serious institutional investors. Many of its retail backers are suckers being manipulated by an army of self-serving insiders and snake oil salesmen. Tesla's Elon Musk and MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor may be betting the house on bitcoin. That doesn't mean you should."

Nouriel Roubini thinks Tether is issuing fake money. And that nothing short of an audit will prove the $30 billion in USDT the BVI-registered company has spewed out into the crypto markets thus far are even 74% backed. Tether is a "criminal enterprise," he bluntly told reporters on Coindesk TV. In a 10-minute interview, Roubini predicted Tether's looming demise, called for the SEC to look into Elon Musk's bitcoin tweets, and claimed that central bank digital currencies will spell the end for crypto.

This VoxEU column asks how economists can contribute to rationally progressing the debate on digital platform-focused regulation and legislation, so that it is not based on subjective priors, but uses applied theory to make testable predictions, and data to discriminate between theories. It suggests that business models matter fundamentally when one is evaluating the dual role of platform owners as umpires and players in their ecosystem.

In early 2020, researchers predicted the cost to mine Bitcoin will be at around $12,000 to $15,000 after the block reward halving in May. But, it is now much cheaper to mine BTC than the initial estimates. The low breakeven price to mine Bitcoin may leave it vulnerable to a correction. Bitcoin has become more affordable to mine in recent weeks due to two main factors: difficulty adjustments and cheaper electricity in Sichuan, China due to the rainy season. A low breakeven price of Bitcoin can raise the probability of a price pullback because miners have more incentive to sell BTC, which may increase selling pressure in the short-term.

This Bank of Canada paper examines how the cost structure of crypto-asset mining affects the response of miners to price fluctuations and the immutability of crypto-asset ledgers that rely on proof-of-work. It shows that the amount of mining power supplied to crypto-assets that rely on application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), such as Bitcoin, responds less to adverse price shocks than other crypto-assets respond to such shocks, a fact that is instrumental to avoiding double-spending attacks. These results weaken doomsday predictions for bitcoin and other crypto-assets with declining block rewards. However, smaller crypto-assets that rely on the same specialized hardware as larger ones may be less protected.

SWIFT gpi Instant has gained its first live link in the UK, with customers of Lloyds Banking Group now able to remit instant cross-border payments through Lloyds via the UK Faster Payments system. The gpi Instant service works by connecting SWIFT gpi, the high-speed cross-border rails with real-time domestic infrastructure, in this case the UK's Faster Payments. It enables banks to use existing infrastructure to provide better service 24/7, with faster speeds, clarity on fees and, crucially, predictability on when an end beneficiary's account will be credited.

"Canadian regulators continue to take a collaborative and cautious approach to regulating the cryptocurrency industry. Due to the ever-evolving landscape of the industry, regulators have taken it upon themselves to clarify the regulatory framework, to better support businesses seeking to offer innovative products, services and applications, and to protect Canadian investors. This may be a welcome approach insofar as it fosters increased stability and predictability, which will serve the industry well in the long run."

Before the pandemic started, payment volumes reached new heights, which are predicted to continue but at a pace reflecting both the increased reliance on non-cash transactions and the effect of a dampened global economy. Global non-cash transactions surged nearly 14% from 2018-2019 to reach 708.5 billion transactions, the highest growth rate recorded in the past decade. Asia-Pacific surpassed Europe and North America to become the 2019 non-cash transactions volume leader at 243.6 billion. The increase was driven by increasing smartphone usage, booming e-commerce, digital wallet adoption and mobile/QR-code payments innovations, led by China, India and other SE Asian markets (31.1% growth).

Bitcoin's predictable and transparent monterey policy is ultimately what makes it a good potential hedge against inflation. While the US dollar, and many other fiat currencies, face increased uncertainty about inflation expectations over the upcoming years, Bitcoin's inflation expectations are predefined. Due to its regular halvings and maximum supply cap, Bitcoin's inflation rate will decrease in the future, while fiat inflation rates may increase.

"Ethereum's London hard fork arrived almost on schedule at 12:33 pm UTC on August 5, 2021 at block height 12,965,000, ushering in Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559." With the upgrade triggered, Ethereum will now undergo a significant overhaul of the network's transaction fee market and other parameters that should make the network more stable, and make fees more predictable to users. Under EIP-1559, each transaction on Ethereum will involve burning the base fee, which automatically decreases the ETH circulating supply and reduce the profitability of mining ETH.

SWIFT has launched SWIFT Go, a low-value cross-border payments service that allows businesses and consumers to make direct transfers from their bank accounts. The company is using tighter service level agreements between institutions and pre-validation of data to provide end customers with a fast and predictable payments experience with upfront visibility on processing times and costs. Go is built on the high-speed rails of the SWIFT global payments interface (gpi) that increases the speed, traceability, and transparency of global fund transfers. Seven global banks, which collectively handle 33 million low-value cross-border payments per year, are already live with the service.

"It depends on what kind of flexibility you need with your financing, how much either option will cost you, and whether you're looking for predictability or incentives."