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When bitcoin advocates claim adoption is surging in developing countries, particularly during periods of political unrest or economic turmoil, their go-to source for evidence is often the LocalBitcoins P2P exchange. But a closer look at the way this data is collected shows substantial noise mixed in with the signals, undermining the claims of growing crypto use empowering the downtrodden.

Data trends also show that blockchain's been losing its fizz. In a big turnaround from years prior, the flow of cash into blockchain start-ups has dropped, according to data compiled by CB Insights. Businesses focusing on blockchain are on pace to draw $1.6 billion this year, down from a record $4.1 billion in 2018, the firm said recently.

Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs) have recently gained more attention for being one of blockchain's most exciting use cases, and the hype is well founded. In concept, DIDs aim to use cutting-edge cryptography and unique identifiers to enable users to validate themselves online, while still dictating when and how that identity data is used. Put simply, Decentralized IDs have the potential to help internet users around the world wrest back control of their data from the corporations that presently control it.

"The final story in this analysis is that, in totality, nearly six years of aggregate data paint the picture that Bitcoin has utility and that its promise is beginning to be realized for the types of people Satoshi said it would."

As a result of the digitization and datafication of finance, combined with new technologies, cybersecurity and technological risks are now evolving into major threats to financial stability and national security. In addition, the entry of major technology firms into finance - TechFins - brings new issues. The first arises in the context of new forms of potentially systemically important infrastructure (such as data and cloud services providers). The second arises because data - like finance - benefits from economies of scope and scale and from network effects and - even more than finance - tends towards monopolistic or oligopolistic outcomes, resulting in the potential for systemic risk from new forms of "Too Big to Fail" and "Too Connected to Fail" phenomena. This paper suggests some basic principles about how such risks can be monitored and addressed, focusing in particular on the role of regulatory technology ("RegTech").

The European Commission Expert Group on Regulatory Obstacles to Financial Innovation published its recommendations on how to create an accommodative framework for Fintech. The group's 30 recommendations are pertaining to the innovative use of technology in finance, maintaining a level playing field, access to data, and the financial inclusion and ethical use of data.

Microsoft's Project ION (Identity Overlay Network) will allow users to mint decentralized digital identities, which aim to act as an immutable replacement for email addresses and usernames, and potentially a vault for sensitive personal data. These identities will be used to seamlessly access online applications without the need to indiscriminately surrender personal data. They could also be used in real-life applications by allowing doctors to cryptographically verify the medical details of patients, or university students to verify their qualifications. To scale to the capacity needed, Microsoft has built Project ION as a Layer 2 network, similar to Lightning but with no tokens and no signatories. Using the underlying protocol Sidetree, ION batches transactions and anchors them with a single hash, increasing efficiency and pushing fees down to what would be just a "rounding error" to Microsoft.

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) outlined a five-year digitalization plan to modernize the country's domestic payment landscape. The CBK says it will work to define standards for API development and mandate data portability with hopes that more options and innovative solutions will be made available for users in Kenya to choose from. These standards will include API specifications for identification, verification and authentication; customer account information/data access; transaction initiation; and formats and coding languages for APIs. https://www.centralbank.go.ke/2020/12/23/invitation-for-public-comments-on-the-draft-kenya-national-payments-system-vision-and-strategy-2021-2025/

In places where banks are not doing their jobs in allocating credit and not innovating, bigtechs face a huge opportunity. Their informational and network advantages allow them to make vast numbers of loans that boost access, productivity, and growth. Moreover, with low default rates, they can offer cheap credit and remain profitable. In advanced economies, where banks are producing and using information, as well as integrating new technologies into their businesses, the evolution of financial services providers could be very different. Big tech firms generally are still shying away from obtaining their own banking licenses. Instead, we see them creating partnerships in which banks exploit their expensive compliance systems and knowledge of regulation, while big tech firms provide the data and a flow of customers. Meanwhile, banks are investing in technology to provide additional services, as well as capture and process data.

The U.S. Justice Department has sued to block Visa's $5.3 billion acquisition of bank data sharing startup Plaid, citing competition concerns. It claims that "Visa is a monopolist in online debit transactions, extracting billions of dollars in fees annually from merchants and consumers. Plaid, a financial technology firm with access to important financial data from over 11,000 U.S. banks, is a threat to this monopoly: it has been developing an innovative new solution that would be a substitute for Visa's online debit services. By acquiring Plaid, Visa would eliminate a nascent competitive threat that would likely result in substantial savings and more innovative online debit services for merchants and consumers.

The Bank of Thailand issued a circular to businesses looking to apply for digital loan business licences that approved the use of alternative data which includes utility bills and online shopping information. Greater use of alternative data will help service providers to analyse the ability and willingness of borrowers' debt payment based on information-based lending. It will also pave the way for the unbanked to get access to personal loans. https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/PressandSpeeches/Press/2020/Pages/n6463.aspx

The global Bitcoin futures market has hit a six-month high of $52 billion, according to data on Coinalyze.net. On October 18, 2020, the market total was at $4.5 billion, before increasing to $30 billion and $38 billion on October 21 and November 5 respectively. The share of this futures market is dominated by crypto exchange Binance, which holds a total of $16.1 billion worth of Bitcoin futures. In second place is crypto exchange Huobi's futures platform HuobiDM, with a total share worth $12.7 billion. https://coinalyze.net/futures-data/global-charts/bitcoin/

This NY Fed blog post discusses the implications of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) that offers consumers a low-cost, privacy-preserving electronic means of payment-essentially, digital cash. Central banks are better positioned, relative to private intermediaries, to commit to safeguarding data from outside vendors, because a central bank has no profit motive to exploit payments data. By helping consumers to monetize privacy, central banks would not be proposing a radical transformation to the payments landscape. Rather, they would be preserving aspects of payments that existed prior to the digital revolution. However, this would require regulators and lawmakers to rethink how to adapt current anti-money laundering practices.

The Global System for Mobile Communications (GSMA) released a COVID-19 response tracker that monitors mobile money-specific regulatory policy, government and provider interventions globally, collated using both primary and secondary sources and updated weekly. The tracker is intended to support mobile money providers and regulators with a mobile money-specific policy response database and learnings from other markets, in order to effectively tailor policy responses for their market. The tracker collates data from 32 countries, spread across Sub-Saharan Africa (17), East Asia & Pacific (7), South Asia (4), Middle East & North Africa (3), and Latin America & Caribbean (1). An interim analysis of the data collated in the tracker showed preferred policy response instrument, regional variations, and the validity period of these instruments.

This Boston Fed paper discusses the key developments, drivers, and considerations in the U.S. market that support progress towards open banking and application programming interfaces (APIs) and how APIs offer a wide variety of new services. It finds that opening a bank's platform to third-party applications can create synergies with innovative technology businesses to build a new generation of digital financial activities that enhance the consumer experience. Open banking can create a paradigm shift in how financial institutions (FIs) treat the issue of ownership, storage, and use of data. However, several risks and challenges need to be addressed. The industry is waiting for guidance from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Interoperability is lacking and many FIs struggle to replace legacy infrastructures with fully digital platforms, which can require considerable investment. FIs may be struggling to prioritize open banking and API permissioned data with competing projects.

This article reflects on the effects of technological change on financial intermediation, distinguishing between innovations in information (data collection and processing) and communication (relationships and distribution). Both follow historic trends towards an increased use of hard information and less in-person interaction, which are accelerating rapidly. The article point to more recent innovations, such as the combination of data abundance and artificial intelligence, and the rise of digital platforms. It argues that in particular the rise of new communication channels can lead to the vertical and horizontal disintegration of the traditional bank business model. Specialized providers of financial services can chip away activities that do not rely on access to balance sheets, while platforms can interject themselves between banks and customers. We discuss limitations to these challenges, and the resulting policy implications.

This Bank of Canada study examines how the pandemic has influenced the demand for and use of cash using data from its Bank Note Distribution System. These data show that the value of notes in circulation grew sharply in March and April. Part of the increase reflects precautionary steps taken by financial institutions to increase their cash inventories during the pandemic, given concerns about possible disruptions to cash transportation services, and to reduce the risk of cash stockouts from potential customer demand. The flow of cash deposits from retailers to financial institutions, which would typically help replenish institutions' note inventories, was disrupted during the pandemic. As a result, financial institutions compensated for this shortfall by drawing cash from the Bank of Canada.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has launched two programmes to promote the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence and data analytics for financial institutions. The two projects are aimed at developing fairness metrics in credit risk scoring and customer marketing, and helping financial institutions validate their data-based systems. https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/media-releases/2020/fairness-metrics-to-aid-responsible-ai-adoption-in-financial-services

"A CBDC 2.0 will be issued and decentrally governed either on a national or on a supranational level, across multiple jurisdictions. This implies a different set of legal, monetary, and fiscal policies, some of them automated, required to be codified and put in place across nations... Decentralized governance will result in fast and cheap cross-border transactions, pseudonymity, personal data protection, and international operability. CBDC 2.0 will be interoperable at the protocol level so that data exchange and functionality should be easily accessible and transferable... The currency should be interoperable on a supranational level, meaning that emerging economies could suffer less from purchasing power inequality."

Data shows that nearly 10% of Bitcoin's total circulating supply is dormant, meaning that it has not been touched for over 10 years. This data boosts the narrative regarding Bitcoin's scarcity, as its actual supply may be far lower than previously thought.