European Union

The EU ship of state has just been holed just above the waterline. While it is unlikely to sink, it could take in water, start listing, and eventually become very difficult to steer.

One of the biggest losers in the wake of the Irish referendum will be the EU's enlargement plans, insofar as they have existed. Pierre Moscovici, one of the leaders of the French opposition Socialist Party and a former Europe Minister, made that point in Paris on June 9. "I think that globally, an Irish 'no' would mean that the European Union would no longer be in a position to pursue further its policy of enlargement," Moscovici said. "For institutional reasons in the first place, because the Treaty of Nice -- I know this, because I was one its negotiators -- is designed for up to 28 [member states]. After that, we'll be in 'no man's land.'" Of the current candidates, only Croatia would be guaranteed entry under existing rules.

The European Commission has called for ratification of the Lisbon treaty to continue, despite the No result in Ireland's referendum. "This vote should not be seen as a vote against the EU… [It] has not solved the problems which the Lisbon Treaty is designed to solve," commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said in Brussels on Friday (13 June).

"The ratification process is made up of 27 national processes, 18 Member States have already approved the Treaty, and the European Commission believes that the remaining ratifications should continue to take their course," he added.

In a joint statement later on, France and Germany also called for the ratification of the Lisbon treaty to continue. "The ratification procedure has already been achieved in 18 countries. Therefore we hope that the other member states will continue the process," the Franco-German declaration reads. Britain has already said it would press ahead with the ratification, according to the BBC.

In a resounding defeat for the treaty, only ten out of 43 Irish constituencies voted in favour of the Lisbon Treaty. A majority of Irish people - 53.4 percent - voted against the EU's Lisbon treaty in Thursday's referendum, while 46.6 percent voted in favour, according to final results released Friday (13 June). Participation was at 53.13 percent.

Labour: 'Lisbon is dead' His Yes coalition ally, Labour leader Eamon Gilmore, however disagreed with Mr Cowen that it should be "full-steam ahead". "The Lisbon Treaty is dead," he said in a separate RTE interview. "Ireland cannot ratify it – therefore Lisbon falls." "This has to be recognised by everybody – by the Taoiseach [the Irish prime minister], by other member states." "This proposal is now gone." Other Irish politicians were scornful of the idea of continued ratification. European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso earlier in the afternoon had said the remaining ratifications "should continue to take their course."

However, recent electoral violence and nationalistic mood are not the only worrying signs. A second major problem is the suppression and long persecution of Bulgarian-Macedonians in the country, a policy that causes unrest in Bulgaria, although the Bul-garian government has made efforts to keep a low profile with a view to avoiding American reactions. The coming election reruns will not certainly change the political landscape in the country, since the parliamentary balance of power is given. Yet, the current configura-tion of power in domestic politics is by far the most unpromising one during the last years, while the mood reminds of Greece in the early 1990s. It is obvious that the current political situation in Skopje leaves only marginal space for conflict resolution since nationalism is the driving force behind domestic politics. The dominant role of ultra-nationalists led to the political marginalization of those modest voices inside the country that could operate as facilitating factors in the name dispute.

The EU's police and civil administration mission for Kosovo, EULEX, is set to start work side-by-side with the existing UN mission, UNMIK, in a legal and organisational mess surrounding Kosovo's struggle to establish independence.

A new UN resolution drafted in 2007 was to see UNMIK cede powers to the government of an independent Kosovo, supported by the 2,200-strong EULEX police and customs force and overseen by an EU special representative and his International Civilian Office. Russia blocked the new UN resolution but Kosovo declared independence unilaterally on 17 February, creating the current situation in which just 20 of the 27 EU states have recognised Kosovo independence and just 300 EULEX officials have so far been deployed.

The French Senate's foreign affairs and defence committee on Wednesday (11 June) moved to scrap a clause introduced by parliamentarians in May that would have made it compulsory to hold a referendum on EU membership of large countries, in particular Turkey. The committee said that the provision introduced by the National Assembly as an amendment to a constitutional reform package "could appear to be directed against a friendly state and ally of France, that is Turkey," and is "likely to cause grave harm to diplomatic relations between France and this country."

The final decision will be taken in July when the upper and lower houses gather for a congress meeting. The text has to be agreed by a three-fifths majority.

The Finnish and Estonian parliaments have ratified the EU's Lisbon treaty, just a day before Irish citizens are to cast their vote on the document in a referendum being closely watched across Europe. A large majority of Finnish deputies – 151 out of 200 – on Wednesday (11 June) voted in favour of the document, while 27 opposed it and 21 were absent, according to AFP news agency.

A little later on Wednesday afternoon, the Estonian parliament also approved the Lisbon treaty. Its vote was almost unanimous: 91 votes in favour and one against. Nine MPs abstained. In both countries, the presidents now have to sign off the document for ratification to be finalised. European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso welcomed both votes, saying: "The treaty has now been approved by seventeen member states. The two votes today send a strong signal, confirming the desire for the treaty to be ratified in good time to enter into force by 1 January 2009."

In addition, the Greek parliament was expected to vote on the document later in the day.

There is great fear in the hearts of treaty supporters on the continent that the Irish, who have benefited from EU largesse arguably more than any other member state, may spurn their benefactor once again as they did when they rejected the Nice Treaty seven years ago.

Macedonia says it is ready to open EU accession talks in the second half of this year and has taken steps to reassure Brussels over violent incidents that marred the country's recent elections.

Despite the incidents, the minister stressed that his country felt ready to open EU accession negotiations and was hoping for this to happen this year. "Macedonia is aware that we will not be prepared by tomorrow to become a member of the EU, but we feel prepared tomorrow to open accession negotiations over EU membership," he said.

Macedonia's preferred timing coincides with France's presidency of the EU, which is to start on 1 July and will last until the end of the year. But French President Nicolas Sarkozy has clearly stated that he supports Greece in a 17-year-old name row over Macedonia's name - something that may eventually prove problematic for Skopje's EU bid.

On 1 July 2008, France takes over the EU's six-month rotating presidency from Slovenia with an exceptionally busy agenda. According to a French diplomat in Brussels, "this presidency is the heaviest one of all the history of the European Union in terms of workload".

"For the first time, you have this coincidence of a heavier Union but there is also the end of the political mandate of the Commission and Parliament as well as the end of the [ratification process of] the Lisbon Treaty. You never had all these things together."

Irish referendum on everyone's minds The outcome of the Irish referendum on 12 June will undoubtedly have a considerable impact on the Presidency's schedule. 

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Die Stärkung der Europäischen Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik (ESVP) steht auf der Agenda der französischen Ratspräsidentschaft weit oben. Die Chancen sind groß, dass in diesem Bereich ein bedeutender Fortschritt erzielt werden könnte, da Frankreich eine führende Militärmacht in Europa ist.

Stärkung der zivilen und militärischen Kapazitäten Eine der Prioritäten ist die Entwicklung einer europäischen „Carrier Task Force“, die auf britischen und französischen Flugzeugträgern und einer gemeinsamen Flotte aus A400M-Flugzeugen für strategischen Transport basiert. Es bestehen auch beträchtliche Kapazitätenmängel im Hinblick auf den Einsatz von Hubschraubern.

Nächste Schritte: 1. Juli 2008: Frankreich übernimmt die EU-Ratspräsidentschaft. 2. und 3. Oktober 2008: Informelles Treffen der Verteidigungsminister. 15. und 16. Oktober 2008:  EU-Gipfel. 10. November 2008: Treffen der Verteidigungsminister. 11. und 12. Dezember 2008: EU-Gipfel. Links EU Offizielle Dokumente Eur-Lex: Permanent Structured Cooperation Europäische Union Parliament: Lisbon Treaty at the heart of reports on CFSP and ESDP

The latest poll in Ireland has revealed a shock swing to the "no" side ahead of next week's vote on the EU's Lisbon treaty. Carried out for the Irish Times, the TNS/mrbi poll shows that those saying they intend to vote "no" has almost doubled to 35 percent (up 17 points) since their last survey three weeks ago.

The poll revealed a clear socio-economic divide, with a majority of better-off voters intending to vote "yes," and a majority among the working class planning a "no" vote. Meanwhile, older voters tended to be more positive towards the treaty, but there was only a majority of "yes" supporters among the over-50s. The survey's result comes despite the fact that Ireland's main political parties all support the treaty, and shows there will have to be a large swing before the 12 June vote if it is to result in a "yes."

Ireland's biggest farmers' group on Tuesday (3 June) said it would encourage its members to vote in favour of the EU Lisbon treaty in a referendum on 12 June, with the decision expected to boost the "yes" side's result.

The IFA decision is seen as crucial, as polls have been indicating a narrow gap between the "yes" and "no" supporters, and the agricultural sector is still an important part of Irish society. The IFA represents 85,000 farming families engaged in agricultural activity. The farmers' backing came after Irish prime minister Brian Cowen indicated he would veto EU approval of any world trade deal that would go against their interests.

The European Parliament is seeking to bolster its role in the bloc's common foreign and security policy (CFSP), with senior MEPs saying it is time for Europe to become a "player and not just a payer" on the world stage.

The proposed new EU foreign minister and diplomatic service as well as the possibility for a group of member states to move ahead in defence cooperation mean foreign policy is "one of the most innovative parts of the treaty." The fact that Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief, will for the first time be present at the MEPs' annual debate on CFSP on Wednesday (4 June) is in itself a "turning point," said the Pole at a briefing on Tuesday. Euro-deputies will today debate a report that sets out principles for the EU's foreign policy - such as respect for human rights - calls for certain issues to be prioritised and says that the CFSP budget from now until 2013 is "insufficient."

The report also calls for parliament to be given greater democratic oversight over the area, which to date has remained firmly the domain of member states. It suggests that the foreign minister "regularly" appear before MEPs and that the parliament be "fully consulted" on who the foreign minister should be, as well as what the diplomatic service should look like.

The European Union has voiced deep concerns over the ethnic violence which marked election day in EU-hopeful Macedonia, leaving one person dead and eight wounded. "The European Commission is very concerned about the use of violence during the election in the country," the EU's executive body said following Sunday's polls (1 June), widely seen as a test of Macedonia's democratic credentials.

Meanwhile, current prime minister Nikola Gruevski hailed the landslide victory of his centre-right VMRO-DPMNE party, with preliminary results suggesting it secured over 48 percent of the vote. The score is likely to translate to more than 60 seats in the 120-strong parliament, giving the winning party enough power to stir the agenda.

EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn has signalled that Bulgaria could see a suspension of millions of euros in EU aid over persistent shortcomings in the fight against organised crime, in what could be the first ever such move by Brussels' against a member state. The European Commission is preparing a monitoring report on the southeast Balkan country to be published early July, as part of the close scrutiny that both Bulgaria and Romania are undergoing for not meeting EU legal standards before joining the bloc in 2007.

The legal problems encountered by EU-Lex, the EU mission in Kosovo, could soon be solved, with diplomats currently in talks over plans to share the leadership with UNMIK, the United Nations peace-keeping mission.

Background: The EU decided in February 2008 to deploy a 2,200 strong 'Rule of Law' mission to Kosovo under the name 'EU-Lex Kosovo'. Its deployment has already started, after having been delayed for both technical and political reasons.  The initial objective was for EU-Lex to take over from UNMIK, the civilian mission established in the Serbian province following the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 in June 1999. But Serbia and Russia strongly protest against EU-Lex, because this mission has not been endorsed by the UN Security Council (EurActiv 16/04/08). The objective of setting up an EU mission in Kosovo is highly political. The EU has ambitions to take over the post-crisis management of a territory on European soil. It previously failed to do so in 1999 when it had to resort to NATO to stop the ethnic cleansing and acts of extreme violence perpetrated by the regime of Slobodan Milosevic. 

Under plans originally foreseen by the EU, the 2,200 strong EU-Lex mission would eventually replace UNMIK as the leading rule-of-law mission in the new-born state of Kosovo.  But faced with rejection from Serbia and Russia, which have both challenged the mission's legal legitimacy, diplomats are now drawing up plans for the two missions to co-exist under joint command.  The solution would provide the EU with a face-saving trick, according to diplomats who were speaking to EurActiv on condition of anonymity. This is because UNMIK has already been accepted by Serbia and Russia, which has a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. 

The European Commission has adopted a code of conduct regulating lobbyists' behaviour as a forerunner to the voluntary register to be launched by Administration and Anti-Fraud Commissioner Siim Kallas on 23 June.

The 'Code of Conduct for Interest Representatives ', officially adopted on 28 May, contains "clear and precise rules" for lobbyists to follow in their relations with Commission staff, according to the EU executive. 

The code of conduct is intended to complement the lobbyists register the Commission is set to publish on 23 June and constitutes part of the wider transparency initiative launched by Vice President Kallas in 2005. 

The lower house of the French parliament on Thursday (29 May) approved an amendment to constitutional reforms that could make it compulsory for France to hold a referendum on large countries joining the EU, in a move targeting Turkey. Under the amendment tabled by Jean-Luc Warsmann – a deputy from the centre-right UMP party - holding a referendum would be obligatory to approve the EU accession of any country whose population surpasses five percent of the EU population (about 500 million people).

Ukraine also affected Besides Turkey, the amendment would also affect EU hopeful Ukraine with its some 46 million inhabitants.