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Interest Payments. The cost of paying interest on the government’s debt is very high. In 2008 Debt interest payments will be £31 billion a year (est 2.5% of GDP). In 2009, they will be £35 billion (similar to defence budget). Public sector debt interest payments could be be the 4th highest department after social security, health and education. Debt interest payments are rising close to £70bn given rise in national debt.

First, the poor must have savings, and as I show, they don’t. Second, they must have access to borrowing, and as I show, they don’t (except for doorstep lenders). Third, the consumption patterns of the rich must be the same as the poor, and they’re not. In fact, the consumption patterns of the rich (for school frees, private health, leisure travel, second homes and financial services products) are all VAT free, unlike the consumption patterns of the poorest.

Overall the rise in VAT is likely to cause higher inflation, reduced GDP growth and some job losses in 2011 and into 2012 - so some deterioration in three microeconomic indicators at the expense of improved government finances. But in the long term a 20% VAT rate is unlikely to have any noticeable effect on UK competitiveness and growth. The long-term trend GDP is driven by supply side factors such as technological progress, working age population growth, improved work and enterprise incentives and the scale and quality of capital investment spending).