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cbrock5654

Turkey's Clumsy Politics and the Kurdish Question - 0 views

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    This is an opinion piece written by Cegniz Aktar, Senior Scholar at the Istanbul Policy Center, a director at the UN, and one of the leading advocates of Turkey's integration into the EU. In this piece, Aktar argues that Turkish politician "fearing the birth of a Kurdish nation-state more than anything but eager on the other hand to assert their regional supremacy, are ending up by alienating all three Kurdish communities" in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. He is referring specifically to President Ankara making a speech comparing the PKK to ISIL, a few days after stating that the PKK should be fighting ISIL rather than Turkey. Even though the Turkish government has been an economic partner of the Iraqi Kurds, they have offered them no military support, and have also preventing Turkish Kurds from joining the fight against ISIL. The Turkish government's fear of a sovereign Kurdish state is leading to extremely poor diplomatic outcomes.
allieggg

Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East's 30 year war » The Spectator - 0 views

  • There are those who think that the region as a whole may be starting to go through something similar to what Europe went through in the early 17th century during the Thirty Years’ War, when Protestant and Catholic states battled it out. This is a conflict which is not only bigger than al-Qa’eda and similar groups, but far bigger than any of us. It is one which will re-align not only the Middle East, but the religion of Islam.
  • Either way there will be a need for a Treaty of Westphalia-style solution — a redrawing of boundaries in a region where boundaries have been bursting for decades.
  • But for the time being, a distinct and timeless stand-off between two regional powers, with religious excuses and religiously affiliated proxies will in all probability remain the main driver of this conflict.
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  • ‘Saudi Arabia is the custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and the birthplace of Islam. As such, it is the eminent leader of the wider Muslim world. Iran portrays itself as the leader of not just the minority Shiite world, but of all Muslim revolutionaries interested in standing up to the West.’
  • ‘Saudi Arabia will oppose any and all of Iran’s actions in other countries, because it is Saudi Arabia’s position that Iran has no right to meddle in other nations’ internal affairs, especially those of Arab states.’
  • Saudi officials more recently called for the Iranian leadership to be summoned to the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes. Then, just the month before last, as the P5+1 countries eased sanctions on Iran after arriving at an interim deal in Geneva, Saudi saw its greatest fear — a nuclear Iran — grow more likely. And in the immediate aftermath of the Geneva deal, Saudi sources darkly warned of the country now taking Iranian matters ‘into their own hands’. There are rumours that the Saudis would buy nuclear bombs ‘off the shelf’ from their friends in Pakistan if Iran ever reaches anything like the nuclear threshold. In that  case, this Westphalian solution could be prefaced with a mushroom cloud.
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    This article touches on an array of ideas but for the sake of my research I focused on the "Thirty Years War" section. Douglass Murray from The Spectator conveys the perspective that the Middle East is likely to be going through a similar 17th century European 30 years war, when Protestant and Catholics launched a full fledged war against one another. This means that religious war in the Middle East is so much bigger than just al-Qaeda and similar groups. The conflict will re-align the region, but also the entire religion of Islam. Douglass says the outcome would call for a Treaty of Westphalia-style solution, redrawing boundaries of a region where they've been bursting for decades.  For the time being the drivers of the conflict is a standoff between the two regional powers and their affiliated proxies, Saudi Arabia and Iran. 
mharcour

Refuting John Kerry and Advocating a Single State Solution - 0 views

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    In this Electronic Intifada article, Ali Abunimah advocates for the single state solution and addresses John Kerry's statements of no possible, peaceful, outcome from a single state solution.
alarsso

The Choices for Syria's Christians - 0 views

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    This article explores possible outcomes for Syrian Christians and the best situation for them if the regime falls, or if civil war continues
ysenia

Debating the Iran nuclear deal: A former American negotiator outlines the battleground ... - 0 views

  • They will prevent Tehran from using the $100-plus billion in previously frozen oil revenues that will be released under the JCPOA to go on a buying spree next year for advanced conventional weaponry and ballistic missile technology. Although Iran will seek to evade the renewed restrictions, Russia and China voted for them and, together with other U.N. members, will be bound to enforce them. Although the arms embargo does not cover all categories of arms (air defense systems such as the S-300 are not included), neither Russia nor China is expected to sell Iran the weapons that are covered, such as high-performance aircraft.
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    American Negotiator goes in depth about the long-term effects of the Iran Nuclear Deal. Outweighing the pros and cons of the situation and predicting the outcome.
ysenia

US warns of dire outcomes if Iran nuclear deal scrapped - CNNPolitics.com - 0 views

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    Obama administration warns presidential candidates of negative effects that could occur if they were to pull out of nuclear deal. Claims that it would destroy the relationship they have built and Iran would go back to program. Candidates threaten to pull out of deal despite warnings in order to maintain alliances with other countries.
mportie

Iran and Saudi Arabia Heading Toward A Cyber War? - 1 views

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    Iran and Saudi Arabia are suspected to go head to head in cyber warfare. Wikileaks revealed information that people put on edge in regards to Saudi Arabia and Iran.
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    Iran and Saudi Arabia, regional rivals in the Middle East, are involved in a cyber conflict. The nations use cyber attacks to release or leak critical intelligence to affect the outcomes of ongoing military conflicts in the region.
allieggg

Islamists Aren't the Obstacle | Foreign Affairs - 0 views

  • A minority of the population -- 26 percent of Tunisians and 28 percent of Egyptians -- believes that Islam should play a large role in government.
  • Both secularists and Islamists associate democracy with economic prosperity
  • Islamist parties received considerable support in both countries' recent elections -- not only because there is a broad ideological affinity for Islamism among the population but also because of Islamist parties' effective campaigning.
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  • When asked about the most important feature of a democracy, 69 percent of Egyptians and 32 percent of Tunisians put providing people with basic necessities or narrowing the gap between rich and poor at the top of their lists.
  • On a related note, Islamist parties have shown a remarkable ability to maintain their base.
  • Tunisia has fared better than Egypt so far in the post-Arab Spring transition, with less violence, fewer demonstrations, and greater political stability. This is in part because challenges are easier to confront in a country of only 11 million, 98 percent of whom are Sunni Muslim, compared to the more diverse and populous Egypt. But Tunisia's success is primarily a result of its stronger institutions, which provide a conduit for political debate.
  • Many onlookers claim that Egypt's more tumultuous post-revolution trajectory is because of the country's legacy of religiosity and Islamism.
  • Egyptians, in fact, are no more religious than Tunisians.
  • Egypt's institutions are weak and have been routinely undermined by entrenched interests. The countries' different geopolitical situations play a role here. Tunisia's minimal strategic importance means that foreign countries have less reason to intervene. But Egypt's proximity to Israel and the Palestinian territories, its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, and its role as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas make its political developments important to Israel and the United States. Consequently, Egypt is vulnerable to foreign interference, particularly to attempts to prop up its military. Furthermore, beyond serving as a pillar to Egypt's authoritarian regimes, the Egyptian military has significant business interests and accounts for ten to 30 percent of Egypt's gross domestic product.
  • Egypt's judicial branch, which is also more powerful than Tunisia's, has at times undermined democratic processes.
  • Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that the Islamist-dominated parliament and the Constituent Assembly it elected were unconstitutional, because Islamist parties contested seats intended for independent candidates. The move polarized the country and pushed the executive branch to take extreme measures.
  • Egyptian democracy is undermined by the inability of institutions to address citizens' demands and the impulse of powerful actors to interfere, not by the divide between Islamists and secularists. Institutions in Egypt fail to provide a meaningful forum for debate. As a result, violent street protesters and extremist sheiks are gaining power.
  • U.S. policy must support institutions rather than actors, and processes rather than outcomes, in order to help Egypt and Tunisia achieve their democratic potential.
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    The Council on Foreign Relations published an article about democratization in the middle east and the major obstacles that are present in the process. While most assume Islamists and Islamic embedded institutions are the root of the delayed democratic transition, the problems are much bigger than that. While Islamist regimes do indeed stunt the growth of democratic progress in terms of creating a stable government, Arab countries struggle with economic and social factors as well. The Arab Spring Revolutions have caused economic and social degradation across the region, resulting in a road block of political leadership. Without a reliable and capable government structure, the states are unable to progress economically. However, in order to have a stable government, social and economic institutions must be in place to create this capitalist economy that they strive for. Because most wealth resides in oil, the revenue that the states bring in isn't distributed properly throughout society and is concentrated within few business elites. The article stresses that instead of foreign aid going into the hands of an unstable leader or regime, it should be invested in institutions in order to spur economic growth and eliminate corruption. Rather than focusing on the Islamist-secularist divide, the world should be working towards the strengthening of institutions to create a stable foundation for governance. 
fcastro2

Syria crisis: Where key countries stand - BBC News - 0 views

  • The eruption of civil conflict in Syria in 2011 very quickly provoked a deep split in the international community over which side to back and what outcome to see
  • Syria regarded as the world's most pressing crisis, the US and Russia, along with other permanent members of the UN Security Council, Turkey and Arab states, have attempted to resolve their differences.
  • Their Geneva Communique, which calls for a transitional government based on "mutual consent", has become the basis for peace talks in the Swiss city. But it is clear the sides have different interpretations of the plan, and have so far failed to achieve a breakthroug
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  • US wants Bashar al-Assad out of power, and is pushing for the transitional government called for in the Geneva communique.
  • President Barack Obama sought Congressional support for military action but postponed the vote - which was not certain to pass - when Syria indicated it would surrender its chemical stockpile
  • United States has been one of the most prominent advocates of firm action against the Syrian government, which it has accused of using chemical weapons and other atrocities.
  • It is backing Syria's "moderate opposition" with "non-lethal" assistance, including communications equipment, generators, and office supplies - but is also believed to be supplying light weapon
  • Russia is one of Mr Assad's most important international backers and has warned the US and its allies against taking one-sided action against Syria
  • Russia was key to Syria agreeing to give up chemical weapons, and backs the Geneva Communique. But it has repeatedly said Syria's future should be decided by Syrians and blocked anti-Assad resolutions at the UN Security Council. It continues to supply Syria with arms, including missile systems and aircraft
  • Britain has been a big critic of the Assad government and signed a statement in 2013 calling for a "strong international respons
  • supported military action but had to rule out Britain's involvement when he failed to secure the backing of parliament in August 2013.
  • UK, along with France, successfully lobbied for the EU's arms embargo to be lifted so as to allow further supplies to Syrian rebels
  • France has been among the most hawkish Western countries and was the first to stop recognising the Syrian government and deal with the main opposition coalition instead.
  • France up to join US military action until plans were put on hold. The president acknowledged that France could not, and would not, act on its own
  • China has joined Russia in blocking resolutions critical of Syria at the UN Security Council. It has criticised the prospect of strikes against Syria, insisting any military action without UN approval would be illegal.
  • Turkish government has been one of the most vocal critics of Syrian President Assad since early on in the uprising and signalled its willingness to join international action even without UN approval
  • Saudi Arabia has been a rival of the Syrian government for years. It has been particularly active in pushing for action against Mr Assad, and called for "all legal means possible" to be used to stop the bloodshed
  • Qatar is thought to be one of the main suppliers of weapons to Syrian rebels and says outside military intervention has become a necessity to protect the Syrian people.
  • ebanon there is deep division between supporters and opponents of President Assad. The country has suffered from an overspill of violence, including bomb attacks, as well as a huge flood of refugees. It has said it thinks military intervention might make the situation worse.
  • Jordan has also received hundreds of thousands of refugees and has called for a political solution to the conflic
  • Iran has been Syria's main backer in the region since well before the current conflict.
  • Iran has warned that any foreign intervention risks sparking a regional war.
  • Israel regards President Assad as an enemy, but has refrained from publicly backing military action against him. It fears its backing could alienate the Arab world,
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    This article details were certain countries, that are most affected by the Syrian conflict, stand within the conflict and how they would like to solve the issue. 
allieggg

Revisiting the Libyan War | The American Conservative - 0 views

  • I do not in any way regret my support for that intervention, which saved many thousands of lives and helped to bring an end to a brutal regime. Still, it is impossible to look at Libya’s failed state and civil war, its proxy conflict and regional destabilization, and not conclude that the intervention’s negative effects over the long term outweigh the short-term benefits.
  • left Libya without a functioning state and little solid ground upon which to build a new political order. The likelihood of such an outcome should have weighed more heavily in my analysis.
  • My hope had been that the intervention would act to restrain other autocrats from unleashing deadly force against protesters and encourage wavering activists to push forward in their demands for change. Unfortunately, this only partially panned out and had unintended negative effects.
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  • No government that bordered on Libya wanted outside intervention, presumably because they feared that they would be adversely affected by it. The Arab governments that most wanted the war were the ones least likely to suffer from its ill effects. The fact that authoritarian GCC governments supported this “humanitarian” intervention should have been a reason to be very wary of military action instead of being an argument in its favor.
  • The worst effects were on Syria. The Libya intervention may have imposed a certain level of caution on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, leading him to search for just the right level of repression to stay beneath the threshold for international action.
  • Libya intervention almost certainly encouraged Syrian activists and rebels – and their backers in the Gulf and Turkey – in their hopes for a similar international campaign on their own behalf. That unintended moral hazard probably contributed to the escalation of Syria’s civil war.
  • Intervention in Libya was always likely to give protesters and rebels in other countries false hope that their plight would trigger outside intervention as well. The moral hazard may not have been intended, but it was there for all to see.
wmulnea

Saudis block OPEC output cut, sending oil price plunging | Reuters - 0 views

  • This outcome set the stage for a battle for market share between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, as a boom in U.S. shale oil production and weaker economic growth in China and Europe have already sent crude prices down by about a third since June.
  • Saudi Arabia blocked calls on Thursday from poorer members of the OPEC oil exporter group for production cuts to arrest a slide in global prices, sending benchmark crude plunging to a fresh four-year low.
  • "It is a new world for OPEC because they simply cannot manage the market anymore. It is now the market’s turn to dictate prices and they will certainly go lower," said Dr. Gary Ross
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  • and Algeria had calling for output cuts of as much as 2 million bpd.
  • The wealthy Gulf states have made clear they are ready to ride out the weak prices that have hurt the likes of Venezuela and Iran
  • hoped that lower prices would help drive some of the higher-cost U.S. shale oil production out of the market.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accounts for a third of global oil output.
  • A price war might make some future U.S. shale oil projects uncompetitive due to high production costs, easing competitive pressures on OPEC in the longer term.
  • "We interpret this as Saudi Arabia selling the idea that oil prices in the short term need to go lower, with a floor set at $60 per barrel, in order to have more stability in years ahead at $80 plus," said Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix consultancy.
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    This article suggests that OPEC is losing control of global oil prices. The article addresses budget considerations for smaller OPEC producers, like Venezuela, and the battle over market share between OPEC and gulf producers.
alarsso

Syria after Assad: Heading toward a Hard Fall? - The Washington Institute for Near East... - 0 views

  • To a certain extent, the nature of the transition will be i
  • nfluenced by how the Assad regime leaves the scene.
  • forces retain their cohesion
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  • control
  • whether the opposition moves to purge regime employees
  • offices are trashed and looted
  • violent power struggle
  • unitary state with a strong central government is unlikely to emerge from the civil war.
  • great challenges exerting control over local leaders who fought the regime
  • ederation of warlords (probably former military and security chiefs) ruling over fiefdoms
  • unitary entity
  • Syrian army
  • opposition will have more time to set up rudimentary institutions
  • provide humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees
  • likely be accompanied by a new round of massacres and ethnic cleansing
  • Sunni extremist groups.
  • new opportunities for external actors, especially Iran and Hizballah, both of which would seek allies among the former regime's Alawite security elite
  • Iran's
  • remain a major player in the Levant
  • hostile to Iran and more closely aligned with Turkey, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia.
  • revolutionary Sunni government in Syria
  • Iran and Hizballah
  • support to former regime
  • Washington should continue with preparations to contain spillover from the conflict
  • enabling it to collect tariffs on imports
  • Washington will need to know as much as it can about the key players,
kdancer

10 Reasons Why America Should Let Others Destroy ISIS and End Perpetual Military Involv... - 0 views

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    U.S. troops have been in combat longer than at any point in American history. In addition to two major wars, U.S. Special Forces were deployed to 133 countries (approximately 70 percent of the nations on the planet) in 2014. It makes little sense to continue with the same tactic of perpetual war, without any assurance of a better strategic outcome.
mcooka

A New System for K-12 Education in Qatar | RAND - 0 views

  • The leadership of the Arabian Gulf nation of Qatar, like that of many other countries, views education as the key to future economic, political, and social progress.
  • In summer 2001, the State of Qatar’s leadership asked the RAND Corporation to examine the K–12 (kindergarten through grade 12) school system in Qatar
  • Qatari K–12 edu-cation system served about 100,000 students, two-thirds of whom attended schools that were financed and operated by the government. The highly centralized Ministry of Education oversaw all aspects of public education and many aspects of private education.
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  • Finally, although Qatar has a high per capita income, the national investment in education was small. Teachers received low pay and little professional development, many school buildings were in poor condition, and classrooms were overcrowded.
  • he most fundamental need was for clear curriculum standards oriented toward the desired outcomes of schooling. The new system’s curriculum, assessments, and professional development would all need to be aligned with these clear standards
  • AND presented three governance options to the Qatari leadership for discussion: (1) a Modified Centralized Model, which upgraded the existing, centrally controlled system by allowing for some school-level flexibility with or without parental choice of schools; (2) a Charter School Model, which encouraged variety through a set of schools independent of the Ministry and which allowed parents to choose whether to send their children to these schools; and (3) a Voucher Model, which offered parents school vouchers so that they could send their children to private schools and which sought to expand high-quality private schooling in Qatar.
  • Qatar now possesses curriculum standards in Arabic, mathematics, science, and English for all 12 grades — and these standards are comparable to the highest in the world.
  • These tests and surveys were then upgraded and repeated in 2005 and 2006 as part of the ongoing accountability system. The tests are the first standardized measures of student learning available in the Arabic language.
  • otential school operators responded enthusiastically to the call to open the new schools.
  • from a pool of 160 initial applicants; all 12 opened under three-year renewable contracts. In 2005, 21 additional Independent schools opened, and in 2006, 13 more opened.
  • Increased expertise is needed in Qatar’s teaching workforce and among the Institutes’ staff. Non-Qatari specialists are likely to be required in the future, but it is important that they find the means to transfer knowledge to Qataris to build local human resources.
  • The four principles of the reform — autonomy, accountability, variety, and choice
  • The emirate of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates recently adopted a strategy of public financing for private providers of education that is similar to that of Qatar. Also, the Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council praised Qatar’s initiative, especially its curriculum standards. Since these standards are the foundation for teaching, learning, and accountability, the Secretary General’s praise, motivated by concern throughout the region about preparing students for later life, represents a major endorsement of the approach taken in Qatar.
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    This piece is about the education reform K-12 in Qatar. The program has started to use local education supplies to create a better community attitude toward education. Their have been efforts to create a universal curriculum and higher evaluation and testing. 
ysenia

One Year After the Iran Nuclear Deal - WSJ - 0 views

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    One year after Iran deal was est. Wall street Journal looks at Iran as being a force of terror still. Cyber attacks as well as threats towards the U.S. remains at large and is still very hostile.
csherro2

Algerian Specificities: Algeria's Place in the 2011 Arab Revolutions - 0 views

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    In the Arab World, 2011 is developing into the year of revolution. Following the dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt, a chain reaction has exposed the region's autocratic regimes to popular pressure like never before. Whatever the outcome of these events, the relationship between the rulers and the ruled in the Arab World has forever ...
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