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Yes, the freeze that has extended from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic states is helping to boost demand for anything that takes the chill out of the house.The result: Natural-gas prices have soared 78 percent in the past 30 days, and even home heating oil is up 2.5 percent. The price of a barrel of oil is now more than $78 – about double the price of a year ago.

Energy traders are watching more than just the weather. Recently, another factor has been whether the US dollar was rising or falling. When the dollar has dropped, traders have bought commodities, such as oil, as a store of value. That has sent the price of oil up.

But after the country's contested presidential elections in June, the majority of Iran's parliament formally endorsed Ahmadinejad's victory. In late October, lawmakers cemented their support by backing legislation to phase out by March 2014 subsidies for fuel, water, flour, bread, wheat, rice, oil, milk, sugar, and postal and transportation services.

The subsidies, which the president argues benefit the wealthy more than the poor, are to be replaced with cash handouts to the lower-income half of Iran's population, with compensation currently estimated to be worth 170,000 rials ($17) a person

Critics say Ahmadinejad's lavish spending on housing projects, infrastructure, cash handouts, and subsidized loans since his election in 2005 has spurred inflation and reduced currency reserves to a precariously low level

Since Zarqawi's death, al Qaeda's composition, formerly dominated by foreign jihadists, started to "Iraqify" through the recruitment of local fighters

Other factors account for al Qaeda's resilience. The fragile economic situation weakens Iraq's security capabilities, threatening to reverse gains in stability. Official Iraqi reports show how dramatic budget cuts have negatively affected security. This year, the government budget was reduced from $79 billion to $59 billion due to falling oil prices. The security sector has been particularly affected, with a freeze on new hires of police and security officers. This situation is worsened by widespread corruption and bribery, which not only plague Iraq's institutions but imperil the overall process of reconstruction.

Yet al Qaeda's vulnerabilities also mean that now is not the time for fatalism. Al Qaeda's tactics have alienated the local population, and its transnational, pan-Islamic ambition is inconsistent with most Iraqis' desire for national reconciliation.