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But Digital Sport is not just about creating must-have sports gadgets. Getting so close to its consumers' data holds exceptional promise for one of the world's greatest marketers: It means it can follow them, build an online community for them, and forge a tighter relationship with them than ever before.

Nike's spending on TV and print advertising in the U.S. has dropped by 40% in just three years, even as its total marketing budget has steadily climbed upward to hit a record $2.4 billion last year. "There's barely any media advertising these days for Nike," says Brian Collins, a brand consultant and longtime Madison Avenue creative executive.

n 2000, Wieden handled all of Nike's estimated $350 million in U.S. billings. Now those campaigns are increasingly split between Wieden and a host of other agencies that specialize in social media and new technologies.

Gone is the reliance on top-down campaigns celebrating a single hit -- whether a star like Tiger Woods, a signature shoe like the Air Force 1, or send-ups like Bo Jackson's 'Bo Knows' commercials from the late '80s that sold the entire brand in one fell Swoosh. In their place is a whole new repertoire of interactive elements that let Nike communicate directly with its consumers, whether it's a performance-tracking wristband, a 30-story billboard in Johannesburg that posts fan headlines from Twitter, or a major commercial shot by an Oscar-nominated director that makes its debut not on primetime television but on Facebook.

It spent nearly $800 million on 'nontraditional' advertising in 2010, according to Advertising Age estimates, a greater percentage of its U.S. advertising budget than any other top 100 U.S. advertiser. (And Nike's latest filings indicate that that figure will grow in 2011.)

Two years ago a group including Stefan Olander, 44, a longtime marketing executive (and Matthew McConaughey look-alike) formally pitched Parker on the idea for Digital Sport, a cross-category division that would take the Nike+ idea -- chip-enabled customer loyalty -- into other sports. Up and running a month later, the Digital Sport division now works across all of Nike's major sports.

The reason for the shift is simple: Nike is going where its customer is.

But as the marketing mix becomes less about hero worship and more about consumer-driven conversation, they say, Nike is insulating itself from an era of athlete endorsements gone wrong. "Everybody's realized there's not the same one-to-one relationship as in the past: When Jordan's hot, his shoes are hot," says a former Nike executive. "I don't know if hero worship is the same as it used to be."

That's not to say everything has been a slam dunk. Nike shut down its Joga network after the last World Cup game in 2006, confusing the million-plus members who'd signed up for it. Its Ballers Network, meanwhile -- launched in 2008 as an app that let basketball players organize street games -- recently had less than 300 users in the U.S.; a recent wall post was a teenager complaining he couldn't get it to work. And critics say products like the FuelBand and Nike+, while dazzling, are more about keeping Nike's retail prices high than innovating.

move rapidly towards the plateau of productivity. This makes it an exciting place to invest budgets, gain traction with consumers and achieve both business and marketing objectives.

THE RISE OF SOCIAL BUSINESS More companies will move beyond an experimental approach to social media.

PAID, OWNED AND EARNED

SOCIAL SOFTWARE

The challenge facing brands will be to successfully utilise the software to deliver real business benefit. In such a nascent industry, we can expect some trailblazers to drive competitive business advantage for their clients, while others will fail just as fast as they appeared. It will take canny observers to predict the winners and losers.

In such a nascent industry, we can expect some trailblazers to drive competitive business advantage for their clients, while others will fail just as fast as they appeared. It will take canny observers to predict the winners and losers.

The discussion about who "owns" social media will move to be focused on "how can we better colla-borate and become more open?". Human resources, customer service, insight and operations, as well as marketing, should all benefit.

The shift towards closer integration between paid, owned and earned media will accelerate in 2013. As social networks look for ways to monetise their audiences and brands search for more effective ways to engage consumers, there will be increased growth of paid-for social advertising. Facebook may see the lion’s share of advertising revenue but will need to tread a delicate balance between consumers’ and advertisers’ needs. Expect to see plenty of changes around the News Feed, ticker and notifications. Expect changes to the EdgeRank algorithm and key application programming interfaces. After all, if you are only "1 per cent done", there is plenty of change ahead.

SOCIAL MEDIA MEASUREMENT

THE RISE OF SOCIAL CRM

With the emergence of better-tracking and more useful social CRM platforms, brands can focus on finding and engaging valuable brand advocates. Turning these "superfans" into evangelists and rewarding them will move from being ad hoc to becoming part of a structured programme. In turn, consumers will become wiser about their importance to brands and look to demand a better deal in the value exchange. Expect some high-profile fallouts.  

BIG DATA

The promise of finding the needle in the haystack – the insight from the data puke – is an exciting one. The reality of looking at large volumes of social data in real time, understanding and responding to it is far more challenging. So, although 2013 won’t quite be "the year of big data", we’ll certainly see significant leaps forward.

Talent, expertise and creativity will be key components that will influence success.

the social media industry, and those brands willing to invest in it, will become stronger. Because data is accessible, points of view are shared and there is a cultural willingness to fail fast, learning from the randomness will be accelerated. In these fragile times, it’s comforting to know we may be able to rely on the antifragility of social media this year.