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The annual growth in the number of workers leaving Bangladesh for overseas jobs slowed sharply to 5.1 percent in 2008 compared to 118.2 percent in 2007.Among the major destinations for overseas employment, new jobs for Bangladeshi workers in Saudi Arabia fell by 35.3 percent in 2008. Kuwait has reduced hiring Bangladeshi workers since late 2006. In 2008 new jobs for Bangladeshi workers in Kuwait fell by 92.4 percent and in Bahrain by 19.8 percent.New job opportunities also declined in 2008 in Malaysia by 51.8 percent and in Brunei by 11.1 percent on economic downturn.The recession is also badly affecting new Bangladeshi job seekers in Europe. Jobs fell by 36.7 percent in Italy and 2.1 percent in the UK in 2008.Job opportunities however grew by 202.6 percent in Oman, 85.2 percent in the UAE, 68.9 percent in Qatar and 47.6 percent in Singapore.The central bank officials' forecast indicates a lower remittance inflow in the next few months as a significant number of workers returned home.

According to the latest revisions by the World Bank, India, China and Mexico retain their position as the top recipients of remittances among developing countries. The top 10 recipients list also includes Philippines, Poland, Nigeria, Romania, Egypt, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Zahid said the economy of the country was stable and the projected economic growth for the fiscal year 09 would be 5.5 per cent. He, however, said in the worst case of declining of export and remittance it could be as low as 4.5 per cent in the fiscal year 09.The senior economist of the bank said that the inflation rate of 6.1 per cent in January of this year was quite satisfactory due to the falling prices of commodities in the international market.

Recession in the developed markets and slowdown in the Middle East has already begun to pose threat to Bangladeshi exports and remittance inflows, he added. Citing a 30 percent decline in capital machinery import, Zahid said there might have been a significant slowdown in investments. On the impacts of the global crisis he said, export, remittance, revenue and banking sector along with the employment would be affected severely. "At least 2 to 2.5 million new local jobs will be needed until the global economy recovers, compared to 1.1 million job creation prior to the crisis," he mentioned."Demands for bailout packages from businesses might not help the poor and the agriculture, livestock and fisheries sectors are doing well", said the senior economist of the international donor agency.Xian Zhu said the impact on Bangladesh's growth may not be severe during the current fiscal year and the government should prepare the best for the worst.He said that government need to take precautionary measures to mitigate the impacts of the crisis especially for the poor by creating more jobs internally and safety net programmes should be given highest priority."The government needs to carry out the unfinished reform agenda to turn Bangladesh a middle income country," he added.

The country's overall trade deficit rose to $3.451 billion during the period from $2.838 billion of the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.During the period, export earnings stood at $9.073 billion against the import payments of $12.524 billion, according to the central bank statistics."Due to larger current account transfers of $5.784 billion the current account balance recorded a surplus of $464 million during July-January, 2008-09 against the surplus of $168 million during July-January, 2007-08," the central bank said in its Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update-March, 2009, released recently.The overall balance also showed a larger surplus of $618 million during the period under review against the deficit of $45 million during July-January period of the previous fiscal, the Monthly Update added.

"Both the government and the central bank are now working to help mitigate the impact on the ongoing economic meltdown in our economy," the central bank official said.He also added that the BB has taken some measures including slashing interest rate on lending in five specific areas and relaxation of loan rescheduling rules to four affected export-oriented sectors.

Meanwhile, remittances from Bangladeshi expatriates stood at $7.029 billion in nine months of this fiscal, growing by 24.43 per cent from that of the corresponding period of last fiscal.The country received $7.029 billion during the July-March period of fiscal 2008-09 against $5.649 billion of the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, the BB's data showed.However, the flow of net foreign direct investment (FDI) rose to $764 million during the period from $430 million of the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, according to the Update.On the other hand, the flow of portfolio investment has recorded a deficit of $67 million during the period under review due to the ongoing global financial meltdown, they added.The net receipts of foreign aid stood also lower at $580.62 million during the period against $669.15 million of the corresponding period of previous fiscal, the BB officials confirmed.

We believe the ADB’s latest predictions are more credible and plausible - although it shows GDP in Bangladesh slower at 5.6% than the Bangladesh Government’s current official forecast of 6%, it is worth emphasizing that this still results in Bangladesh achieving the second fastest growth within Asia, and expanding more than India, a remarkable achievement in terms of economic resilience.

As noted by the World Bank, collapsing Global Trade demand in advanced economies has had serious implications for global trade, with 2009 expected to experience the first yearly decline in world trade volumes since 1982, the largest decline in 80 years.

The World Bank forecasts that remittance flows are estimated to have reached USD 305 billion in 2008, an increase of around 9 percent from 2007

 According to BB statistics, Bangladesh's remittance inflow grew24.43 percent to around 7.03 billion U.S. dollars in July-March period of the current fiscal year (July 2008-June 2009) despite a global recession that forces job cuts around the world.     Bangladesh's exports in the first eight months of the current fiscal year 2008-09 (July 2008-June 2009) posted 15.90 percent growth and stood at around 10.35 billion U.S. dollars.     The country's Letter of Credits (L/Cs) against imports worth 1.57 billion were settled in February over that of 1.999 billion U.S. dollars in January, according to the central bank provisional statistics.

Clothing manufacture underpins impoverished Bangladesh's industrial activity, accounting for 80 percent of overseas sales and pulling in 11 billion dollars a year.

At the start of Bangladesh's financial year in July, garment exports were up 72 percent from a year earlier, but by February growth had slowed to four percent year-on-year as orders from Western retailers evaporated.

"The whole economy can unravel if garment exports continue to slow down as many other sectors such as transport, services and construction are directly dependent on this sector," said Masato Miyazaki, an IMF adviser on Bangladesh.