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Hansel

Need for job-creation in Bangladesh to Stall Recession - 0 views

  • "At least 2 million to 2.5 million new local jobs will be needed until the global economy recovers fully, compared with 1 million to 1.1 million local job creation needed prior to the global economic crisis," the WB said in a report "Bangladesh: State of the Economy and Policy Response to the Global Economic Crisis" launched yesterday.
  • Due to the global meltdown, the jute sector job loss is projected to reach 50,000 by the end of fiscal 2009, the report said. Twelve spinning mills out of 341 have been shut in the textiles sector.
  • "The labour force is increasing by two million people a year. If manpower exports revert to the pre-boom era in the Middle East (up to 300,000 a year), the domestic economy will have to create jobs for another 500,000 people a year," the WB said.
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  • In the first nine months of fiscal 2009 (July-March), 537,000 migrant workers found employment abroad compared to 720,000 in the same period last year. The migrant outflow to Gulf Cooperation Council member countries has declined by 16 percent from 407,000 in fiscal 2008 (July-Feb) to 342,000 in fiscal 2009 (July-Feb).Data shows that 13,540 Bangladeshi workers returned between December 2008 and February 2009.
  • Frozen shrimp has experienced a steep decline in prices from $5 per kg to $3.7 per kg.
  • The current economic situation in Bangladesh is stable, but this cannot be taken for granted.
  • The WB suggested Bangladesh take effective stimulus measures that include strengthening social safety nets, frontloading existing projects and increasing maintenance spending, expenditure increase tends to be more effective than tax cuts.The WB said the measures Bangladesh should avoid include new large-scale entitlement programmes, increase in public-sector wage bill, increase in subsidies to specific industries, reduction in corporate tax rates, increase in tariffs, tax amnesties for companies and interest rate ceilings. On the constraints to a bailout package, the WB report said the government does not have adequate space to finance large bailout packages. "There is some room for higher fiscal deficit, because of savings from subsidy provision, but it needs to be used wisely. These may not benefit the poor," it said.There are better candidates for spending the improved fiscal space: infrastructure, support to small and medium enterprises, microcredit schemes, health and education, safety net programmes, it said.The WB stressed the need for structural reforms to improve investment climate.The WB recommended immediate measures such as reassessing public spending priorities: rural and urban infrastructure, especially power sector, basic health and education. It also emphasised support to the microfinance sector and enhancing the small enterprise fund and support to the housing finance market.Recommending giving transit, the WB said it would promote regional connectivity and trade. It said Bangladesh could earn an additional $1.0 billion or more from exports, transit charges and port fees.
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    The World Bank suggests Bangladesh create an additional 10 lakh (1 million) jobs for the people who run the risk of losing employment both at home and abroad in the global financial crisis.
Hansel

WB analyst observes Bangladesh economy stronger in the region - 0 views

  • Zahid said the economy of the country was stable and the projected economic growth for the fiscal year 09 would be 5.5 per cent. He, however, said in the worst case of declining of export and remittance it could be as low as 4.5 per cent in the fiscal year 09.The senior economist of the bank said that the inflation rate of 6.1 per cent in January of this year was quite satisfactory due to the falling prices of commodities in the international market.
  • Recession in the developed markets and slowdown in the Middle East has already begun to pose threat to Bangladeshi exports and remittance inflows, he added. Citing a 30 percent decline in capital machinery import, Zahid said there might have been a significant slowdown in investments. On the impacts of the global crisis he said, export, remittance, revenue and banking sector along with the employment would be affected severely. "At least 2 to 2.5 million new local jobs will be needed until the global economy recovers, compared to 1.1 million job creation prior to the crisis," he mentioned."Demands for bailout packages from businesses might not help the poor and the agriculture, livestock and fisheries sectors are doing well", said the senior economist of the international donor agency.Xian Zhu said the impact on Bangladesh's growth may not be severe during the current fiscal year and the government should prepare the best for the worst.He said that government need to take precautionary measures to mitigate the impacts of the crisis especially for the poor by creating more jobs internally and safety net programmes should be given highest priority."The government needs to carry out the unfinished reform agenda to turn Bangladesh a middle income country," he added.
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    Bangladesh is still not hit hard by the ongoing global economic recession and the economy of the country is stronger in comparison with other countries in the region, said the World Bank (WB) yesterday. "The economy of the country is stronger in comparison with other countries in the region and it has more time to anticipate effects than developed and other emerging nations", said Zahid Hussain, senior economist of the WB at a workshop on 'State of Bangladesh Economy and Policy Response to the Global Financial Crisis' at the bank office in the city.
Hansel

AT Capital - 0 views

  • We believe the ADB’s latest predictions are more credible and plausible - although it shows GDP in Bangladesh slower at 5.6% than the Bangladesh Government’s current official forecast of 6%, it is worth emphasizing that this still results in Bangladesh achieving the second fastest growth within Asia, and expanding more than India, a remarkable achievement in terms of economic resilience.
  • As noted by the World Bank, collapsing Global Trade demand in advanced economies has had serious implications for global trade, with 2009 expected to experience the first yearly decline in world trade volumes since 1982, the largest decline in 80 years.
  • The World Bank forecasts that remittance flows are estimated to have reached USD 305 billion in 2008, an increase of around 9 percent from 2007
    • Hansel
       
      $305billion = Total remittance flow in the world
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  • The CPD, in a recent report highlights:”Although overall exports have picked up again in January, 2009 (12 percent growth compared to January 2008), disaggregated figures of second quarter, FY 09 and January 2009 testify to the fact that global crisis have started to have an adverse impact on Bangladesh’s export-oriented sectors and has subjected it to higher volatility”. The government has said that it is considering the idea of expanding the existing cash subsidy scheme to another seven export items.
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    AT Capital Weekly -- 05 April 2009
Hansel

AFP: Dwindling exports hit Bangladesh economy - 0 views

  • Clothing manufacture underpins impoverished Bangladesh's industrial activity, accounting for 80 percent of overseas sales and pulling in 11 billion dollars a year.
  • At the start of Bangladesh's financial year in July, garment exports were up 72 percent from a year earlier, but by February growth had slowed to four percent year-on-year as orders from Western retailers evaporated.
  • "The whole economy can unravel if garment exports continue to slow down as many other sectors such as transport, services and construction are directly dependent on this sector," said Masato Miyazaki, an IMF adviser on Bangladesh.
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  • The garment industry employs 2.5 million workers, mostly women, who account for more than 40 percent of Bangladesh's industrial workforce.
  • the currencies of India and Pakistan have depreciated against the dollar in recent months, making their goods cheaper, while the Bangladeshi taka has remained steady."Garment exports grew over 40 percent in the first quarter as orders meant for China directed to Bangladesh because of its cheap production cost,' said trade expert Mustafizur Rahman, a visiting Yale University professor."But it started to slow down sharply since October as China has withdrawn taxes and pumped incentives to its apparel manufacturers to cushion against global recession," he said.The BGMEA, which groups 4,500 export-oriented garment factories, said firms need subsidies worth 10 percent of the value of their exports to stay competitive.
  • The World Bank has forecast growth this financial year could be two percentage points lower than expected at 4.5 percent, the lowest in eight years.Last year the economy grew by 6.2 percent and the government had been aiming for 6.5 percent this year.On top of the export slump, Bangladeshi workers abroad are being laid off in the Middle East, South East Asia and other countries where Bangladeshis find low-skilled, low-wage work.This has hit remittances, another worry for authorities as money sent home by workers abroad is the second biggest foreign exchange earner after exports.
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    One of the country's biggest selling points was its ability to undercut rivals India, Pakistan and China as Bangladeshi labour was among the world's cheapest. But those countries now are beating Bangladesh on price, industry leaders said. "We used to boast that nobody could beat us but Pakistan, China and India are now offering cheaper rates," said Z.A. Chowdhury, director of leading manufacturer Knit Asia, which sells garments to British supermarket chain Tesco.
Hansel

The Daily Star - Details News - 0 views

  • The annual growth in the number of workers leaving Bangladesh for overseas jobs slowed sharply to 5.1 percent in 2008 compared to 118.2 percent in 2007.Among the major destinations for overseas employment, new jobs for Bangladeshi workers in Saudi Arabia fell by 35.3 percent in 2008. Kuwait has reduced hiring Bangladeshi workers since late 2006. In 2008 new jobs for Bangladeshi workers in Kuwait fell by 92.4 percent and in Bahrain by 19.8 percent.New job opportunities also declined in 2008 in Malaysia by 51.8 percent and in Brunei by 11.1 percent on economic downturn.The recession is also badly affecting new Bangladeshi job seekers in Europe. Jobs fell by 36.7 percent in Italy and 2.1 percent in the UK in 2008.Job opportunities however grew by 202.6 percent in Oman, 85.2 percent in the UAE, 68.9 percent in Qatar and 47.6 percent in Singapore.The central bank officials' forecast indicates a lower remittance inflow in the next few months as a significant number of workers returned home.
    • Hansel
       
      Part of the large recent remittance could also be attributed to workers moving all their savings to Bangladesh as they lose their jobs.
  • According to the latest revisions by the World Bank, India, China and Mexico retain their position as the top recipients of remittances among developing countries. The top 10 recipients list also includes Philippines, Poland, Nigeria, Romania, Egypt, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
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    Remittance inflow to Bangladesh in March recorded $881million, but in terms of growth rate it was only 9 percent, the lowest in the last nine months because of the ongoing global recession.
Hansel

Bangladesh's Balance Of Payments Continues To Maintain Surplus Position | AHN | April 1... - 0 views

  • The country's overall trade deficit rose to $3.451 billion during the period from $2.838 billion of the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.During the period, export earnings stood at $9.073 billion against the import payments of $12.524 billion, according to the central bank statistics."Due to larger current account transfers of $5.784 billion the current account balance recorded a surplus of $464 million during July-January, 2008-09 against the surplus of $168 million during July-January, 2007-08," the central bank said in its Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update-March, 2009, released recently.The overall balance also showed a larger surplus of $618 million during the period under review against the deficit of $45 million during July-January period of the previous fiscal, the Monthly Update added.
  • "Both the government and the central bank are now working to help mitigate the impact on the ongoing economic meltdown in our economy," the central bank official said.He also added that the BB has taken some measures including slashing interest rate on lending in five specific areas and relaxation of loan rescheduling rules to four affected export-oriented sectors.
  • Meanwhile, remittances from Bangladeshi expatriates stood at $7.029 billion in nine months of this fiscal, growing by 24.43 per cent from that of the corresponding period of last fiscal.The country received $7.029 billion during the July-March period of fiscal 2008-09 against $5.649 billion of the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, the BB's data showed.However, the flow of net foreign direct investment (FDI) rose to $764 million during the period from $430 million of the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, according to the Update.On the other hand, the flow of portfolio investment has recorded a deficit of $67 million during the period under review due to the ongoing global financial meltdown, they added.The net receipts of foreign aid stood also lower at $580.62 million during the period against $669.15 million of the corresponding period of previous fiscal, the BB officials confirmed.
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    The current account balance recorded a surplus during the July-January period of fiscal 2008-09, thanks to robust growth of inward remittance, officials said.
Hansel

Bangladesh's foreign exchange surpasses $6 bln_English_Xinhua - 0 views

  •  According to BB statistics, Bangladesh's remittance inflow grew24.43 percent to around 7.03 billion U.S. dollars in July-March period of the current fiscal year (July 2008-June 2009) despite a global recession that forces job cuts around the world.     Bangladesh's exports in the first eight months of the current fiscal year 2008-09 (July 2008-June 2009) posted 15.90 percent growth and stood at around 10.35 billion U.S. dollars.     The country's Letter of Credits (L/Cs) against imports worth 1.57 billion were settled in February over that of 1.999 billion U.S. dollars in January, according to the central bank provisional statistics.
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    Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserve has surpassed 6 billion U.S. dollars, a senior official said on Monday.
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