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“widespread unrest does not arise from long-standing political failings of the system,” the authors wrote, “but rather from its sudden perceived failure to provide essential security to the population.”

If current trends continue, the authors note, prices will permanently cross that barrier as early as next July. Prepare for a lot of angry people.

the relationship between income elasticity and the price (in-)elasticity of food means that “quite modest increases in global income will drive food prices up alarmingly unless matched by increases in supply.”