Analysis - The power behind the throne in North Korea | Reuters - 0 views
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Real power in North Korea now probably belongs to a coterie of advisers following the death of Kim Jong-il, not his youngest son, an untested man in his 20s who has been anointed the "Great Successor."
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These advisers will decide whether North Korea launches military action against South Korea to strengthen the succession around Kim Jong-un -- or seeks a peaceful transition.
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"Jang has played a considerable role during Kim Jong-il's illness of managing the succession problem and even the North's relations with the United States and China," said Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies."Jang is in overall charge of the job of making it formal for Kim Jong-un to be the legal and systematic leader by pulling together the party and the military."
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Jang had the full backing of his brother-in-law, who named him to the National Defence Commission in 2009, the supreme leadership council Kim Jong-il led as head of the military state.That appointment was part of a flurry of moves Kim Jong-il made following a stroke in 2008 which probably brought home the reality that, unlike his father at his death in 1994, he was unprepared for a trusted son to take over.
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The commission has been the pinnacle of power in North Korea and which Kim had used to preach his own version of political teaching called Songun, or "military first."
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The naming of Jang as a vice chairman of the commission effectively catapulted him to the second most powerful position in the country.It also put him in line to become caretaker leader of the dynastic state in the event Kim was unable to orchestrate a gradual transition of power and the grooming of Jong-un.
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Jang, who also holds the humble title of a department chief in the ruling Workers' Party, disappeared from public for two years before returning in 2006, widely believed to have been purged then rehabilitated as part of a power struggle involving backers of Kim's second and third wives.He is considered a pragmatist who earned Kim Jong-il's trust because of his understanding of domestic politics and economic policy.
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Few observers believe either Jang or his wife will try to push the junior Kim out and grab power for themselves."That would kindle a power struggle that will get out of control, and they will know better than to do that," said Yang of the University of North Korean Studies.
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With the military already very powerful, there appears to be little risk of a coup or the kind of regime change seen in the Arab world this year.
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Ri Yong-ho, the rising star of the North's military and its chief of staff, is ranked fourth on the list of funeral committee officials, an indication of the power he wields not only in the army but as Kim Jong-il's confidante in domestic politics.Ri, despite being on good terms with Jang, provides an ideal balance to the power of Kim's brother-in-law.
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Parliament is headed by Kim Yong-nam, a loyal but passive figurehead who analysts say poses no threat to the transition
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"The North Korean leadership is united," said Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul. "They understand that they should hang together in order not to be hanged separately."
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Jang, his wife Kim and Vice Marshal Ri are expected to make sure Jong-un survives as the third generational leader and that North Korea holds together at least through the centenary of Kim Il-Sung's birth in 2012.