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Pedro Gonçalves

Analysis - The power behind the throne in North Korea | Reuters - 0 views

  • Real power in North Korea now probably belongs to a coterie of advisers following the death of Kim Jong-il, not his youngest son, an untested man in his 20s who has been anointed the "Great Successor."
  • These advisers will decide whether North Korea launches military action against South Korea to strengthen the succession around Kim Jong-un -- or seeks a peaceful transition.
  • The most powerful adviser is Jang Song-thaek, 65, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il.
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  • "Jang has played a considerable role during Kim Jong-il's illness of managing the succession problem and even the North's relations with the United States and China," said Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies."Jang is in overall charge of the job of making it formal for Kim Jong-un to be the legal and systematic leader by pulling together the party and the military."
  • Jang had the full backing of his brother-in-law, who named him to the National Defence Commission in 2009, the supreme leadership council Kim Jong-il led as head of the military state.That appointment was part of a flurry of moves Kim Jong-il made following a stroke in 2008 which probably brought home the reality that, unlike his father at his death in 1994, he was unprepared for a trusted son to take over.
  • The commission has been the pinnacle of power in North Korea and which Kim had used to preach his own version of political teaching called Songun, or "military first."
  • The naming of Jang as a vice chairman of the commission effectively catapulted him to the second most powerful position in the country.It also put him in line to become caretaker leader of the dynastic state in the event Kim was unable to orchestrate a gradual transition of power and the grooming of Jong-un.
  • Jang, who also holds the humble title of a department chief in the ruling Workers' Party, disappeared from public for two years before returning in 2006, widely believed to have been purged then rehabilitated as part of a power struggle involving backers of Kim's second and third wives.He is considered a pragmatist who earned Kim Jong-il's trust because of his understanding of domestic politics and economic policy.
  • Few observers believe either Jang or his wife will try to push the junior Kim out and grab power for themselves."That would kindle a power struggle that will get out of control, and they will know better than to do that," said Yang of the University of North Korean Studies.
  • With the military already very powerful, there appears to be little risk of a coup or the kind of regime change seen in the Arab world this year.
  • Ri Yong-ho, the rising star of the North's military and its chief of staff, is ranked fourth on the list of funeral committee officials, an indication of the power he wields not only in the army but as Kim Jong-il's confidante in domestic politics.Ri, despite being on good terms with Jang, provides an ideal balance to the power of Kim's brother-in-law.
  • Parliament is headed by Kim Yong-nam, a loyal but passive figurehead who analysts say poses no threat to the transition
  • "The North Korean leadership is united," said Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul. "They understand that they should hang together in order not to be hanged separately."
  • Jang, his wife Kim and Vice Marshal Ri are expected to make sure Jong-un survives as the third generational leader and that North Korea holds together at least through the centenary of Kim Il-Sung's birth in 2012.
Pedro Gonçalves

Foreign Policy: The Rise of Kim Jong-Un - 0 views

  • Jang (director of the KWP's Administrative Department, which oversees much of North Korea's security apparatus) had shifted his support to Kim Jong-un in light of Kim Jong Il's "special affection" for his third son and out of consideration for his own future political power.
  • The development of a collective leadership centered on Jang appears to have emerged out of the recent meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly. Some analysts point to the NDC, of which Kim Jong-un is now reportedly a member, as the platform through which the succession will be carried out, much as the KWP was Kim Jong Il's platform. In addition to Jang, the NDC is now populated with powerful military and security officials with ties to Jang, including vice chairmen Kim Yong-jun and O Kuk-yol and members Chu Sang-song (minister of public security) and U Tong-juk (deputy director of the State Security Department). Many think this collective leadership, which probably extends beyond the NDC to the party as well, will provide the support network for a dynastic succession. In this scenario, Kim Jong-un would be the public face of North Korea, while Jang led behind the scenes.
  • When the succession will be made public is a critical question. Some Pyongyang watchers speculate that it will be attached to an auspicious date in North Korean history. Many point to April 2012, which would mark the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth. Of course, the health of Kim Jong Il, which has appeared to worsen in recent months, will probably drive the timing of this announcement.
Argos Media

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | China urges N Korea to talk again - 0 views

  • The Chinese President Hu Jintao has urged North Korea to return to the negotiating table over its controversial nuclear programme. Mr Hu told North Korean Premier Kim Yong-il to co-operate with efforts to resume stalled six-party talks on the North's nuclear activities.
  • Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Mr Kim a day earlier that China wants to "actively push forward" the deadlocked negotiations. China's chief delegate to the nuclear talks, Wu Dawei, visited North Korea without fanfare in February seeking a breakthrough, South Korean and Japanese media reported at the time. Beijing has not confirmed the trip.
  • China has been hosting the talks which had been making progress until North Korea abruptly stopped disabling its nuclear programme last August. Talks in December failed to resolve a dispute with the US over how to verify the North's full range of past nuclear activities.
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  • South Korea and the US say Pyongyang may be preparing to test-fire a long-range missile and have warned it against the launch planned for April. The North insists it is preparing to send up a communications satellite. The US, Japan and South Korea have all expressed concerns that the North is actually planning to test-fire a long-range missile. North Korea is banned from firing either device under a UN Security Council resolution prohibiting it from ballistic activity.
  • North Korean Premier Kim Yong-il - who is not related to leader Kim Jong-il - arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for a five-day trip.
Pedro Gonçalves

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | N Korea 'names Kim's successor' - 0 views

  • North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il has designated his youngest son to be the country's next leader, according to reports in South Korean media.Two newspapers and an opposition lawmaker said South Korea's spy agency had briefed legislators on the move. North Korean officials were reportedly told to support Kim Jong-un after the North's 25 May nuclear test.
  • Little is known about Kim Jong-il's youngest son, who is thought to have been born in 1983 or early 1984.
  • There is no confirmed photograph of him as an adult. Questions have also been raised over whether his late mother, a Japanese-born professional dancer called Ko Yong-hui, was Kim Jong-il's official wife or mistress.
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  • The youngest Kim has been reported as being the son who most resembles his father. He is also reported to have a ruthless streak and the strongest leadership skills of Kim Jong-il's three sons.
  • There were reports he had been named as his successor in January. In April the South Korean newsagency, Yonhap, said he had joined the North's powerful National Defence Commission. Our correspondent notes that in a society that values seniority his youth could be a problem.
  • Meanwhile, at the end of a two-day summit, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and leaders from the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) condemned North Korea's recent nuclear test and missile launches.
Pedro Gonçalves

Excusive - N.Korea military, uncle to share power with heir | Reuters - 0 views

  • Jang Song-thaek, 65, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il and the younger Kim's uncle, is seen as the power behind the throne along with his wife Kim Kyong-hui, Kim Jong-il's sister. So too is Ri Yong-ho, the rising star of the North's military and currently its most senior general.
  • "All have a vested interest in regime survival," he said. "Their own personal safety and survival is inextricably tied to regime survival and Kim Jong-un is the manifestation of this. I think the regime will remain stable, at least in the near-term."
  • "Over the long term, there appears to be some hope, primarily emanating from Beijing, that Kim Jong-un will take North Korea down the path of Chinese-style reform, apparently based on the belief that Jang is or will be a 'reformer'.""Who knows, this may be true. While this could relieve the suffering of the North Korean people over time, it will do little to promote the cause of denuclearisation, however."
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  • The high-level source also said Beijing was only notified of Kim's death earlier on Monday, the same day North Korean state television broadcast the news. Kim died on Saturday
  • Mainly, the prospect of instability on its northeastern border worries China and it sees the younger Kim and his coterie as the best prospect for keeping North Korea on an even keel.
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