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Real power in North Korea now probably belongs to a coterie of advisers following the death of Kim Jong-il, not his youngest son, an untested man in his 20s who has been anointed the "Great Successor."

These advisers will decide whether North Korea launches military action against South Korea to strengthen the succession around Kim Jong-un -- or seeks a peaceful transition.

The most powerful adviser is Jang Song-thaek, 65, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il.

Jang Song-thaek, 65, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il and the younger Kim's uncle, is seen as the power behind the throne along with his wife Kim Kyong-hui, Kim Jong-il's sister. So too is Ri Yong-ho, the rising star of the North's military and currently its most senior general.

"All have a vested interest in regime survival," he said. "Their own personal safety and survival is inextricably tied to regime survival and Kim Jong-un is the manifestation of this. I think the regime will remain stable, at least in the near-term."

"Over the long term, there appears to be some hope, primarily emanating from Beijing, that Kim Jong-un will take North Korea down the path of Chinese-style reform, apparently based on the belief that Jang is or will be a 'reformer'.""Who knows, this may be true. While this could relieve the suffering of the North Korean people over time, it will do little to promote the cause of denuclearisation, however."

North Korea's official KCNA news agency named Kim's youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as the "Great Successor", lauding him as "the outstanding leader of our party, army and people".But there was uncertainty about how much support he has among the ruling elite, especially in the military, and worry he might try some military provocation to help establish his credentials.

"Kim Jong-un is a pale reflection of his father and grandfather. He has not had the decades of grooming and securing of a power base that Jong-il enjoyed before assuming control from his father," said Bruce Klingner, an Asia policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington."(He) may feel it necessary in the future to precipitate a crisis to prove his mettle to other senior leaders or deflect attention from the regime's failings."

there will be questions over how much real control the younger Kim has, and whether the military elite accepts him.Zhu Feng, Professor of International Relations at Peking University, said it was clear the mechanism for transition was in place and working."The issue of primary concern now is not whether North Korea will maintain political stability, but what will be the nature of the new political leadership, and what policies will it pursue at home and abroad."In the short-term, there won't be new policies, only a stressing of policy stability and continuity. So soon after Kim Jong-il has died, no leader will dare say that an alternative policy course is needed," Zhu said.

The WPK is the ruling body of the reclusive state and Kim serves as its general secretary. He is also chairman of the increasingly powerful National Defense Commission.Analysts said the role of the Workers' Party has diminished over the past decades as the North has increasingly focused on its military power, but the party still dictates political ideology.

Kim has in recent weeks reshuffled the Defense Commission to put close aides sympathetic to dynastic succession on the panel. His brother-in-law, Jang Song-thaek, who is seen as a potential caretaker in the event of Kim's early demise, was named to the powerful vice chairmanship.Jong-un, in his 20s, has little experience and some analysts are skeptical he will pushed into a senior position at the convention.