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Pedro Gonçalves

Analysis - The power behind the throne in North Korea | Reuters - 0 views

  • Real power in North Korea now probably belongs to a coterie of advisers following the death of Kim Jong-il, not his youngest son, an untested man in his 20s who has been anointed the "Great Successor."
  • These advisers will decide whether North Korea launches military action against South Korea to strengthen the succession around Kim Jong-un -- or seeks a peaceful transition.
  • The most powerful adviser is Jang Song-thaek, 65, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il.
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  • "Jang has played a considerable role during Kim Jong-il's illness of managing the succession problem and even the North's relations with the United States and China," said Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies."Jang is in overall charge of the job of making it formal for Kim Jong-un to be the legal and systematic leader by pulling together the party and the military."
  • Jang had the full backing of his brother-in-law, who named him to the National Defence Commission in 2009, the supreme leadership council Kim Jong-il led as head of the military state.That appointment was part of a flurry of moves Kim Jong-il made following a stroke in 2008 which probably brought home the reality that, unlike his father at his death in 1994, he was unprepared for a trusted son to take over.
  • The commission has been the pinnacle of power in North Korea and which Kim had used to preach his own version of political teaching called Songun, or "military first."
  • The naming of Jang as a vice chairman of the commission effectively catapulted him to the second most powerful position in the country.It also put him in line to become caretaker leader of the dynastic state in the event Kim was unable to orchestrate a gradual transition of power and the grooming of Jong-un.
  • Jang, who also holds the humble title of a department chief in the ruling Workers' Party, disappeared from public for two years before returning in 2006, widely believed to have been purged then rehabilitated as part of a power struggle involving backers of Kim's second and third wives.He is considered a pragmatist who earned Kim Jong-il's trust because of his understanding of domestic politics and economic policy.
  • Few observers believe either Jang or his wife will try to push the junior Kim out and grab power for themselves."That would kindle a power struggle that will get out of control, and they will know better than to do that," said Yang of the University of North Korean Studies.
  • With the military already very powerful, there appears to be little risk of a coup or the kind of regime change seen in the Arab world this year.
  • Ri Yong-ho, the rising star of the North's military and its chief of staff, is ranked fourth on the list of funeral committee officials, an indication of the power he wields not only in the army but as Kim Jong-il's confidante in domestic politics.Ri, despite being on good terms with Jang, provides an ideal balance to the power of Kim's brother-in-law.
  • Parliament is headed by Kim Yong-nam, a loyal but passive figurehead who analysts say poses no threat to the transition
  • "The North Korean leadership is united," said Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul. "They understand that they should hang together in order not to be hanged separately."
  • Jang, his wife Kim and Vice Marshal Ri are expected to make sure Jong-un survives as the third generational leader and that North Korea holds together at least through the centenary of Kim Il-Sung's birth in 2012.
Pedro Gonçalves

Foreign Policy: The Rise of Kim Jong-Un - 0 views

  • Jang (director of the KWP's Administrative Department, which oversees much of North Korea's security apparatus) had shifted his support to Kim Jong-un in light of Kim Jong Il's "special affection" for his third son and out of consideration for his own future political power.
  • The development of a collective leadership centered on Jang appears to have emerged out of the recent meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly. Some analysts point to the NDC, of which Kim Jong-un is now reportedly a member, as the platform through which the succession will be carried out, much as the KWP was Kim Jong Il's platform. In addition to Jang, the NDC is now populated with powerful military and security officials with ties to Jang, including vice chairmen Kim Yong-jun and O Kuk-yol and members Chu Sang-song (minister of public security) and U Tong-juk (deputy director of the State Security Department). Many think this collective leadership, which probably extends beyond the NDC to the party as well, will provide the support network for a dynastic succession. In this scenario, Kim Jong-un would be the public face of North Korea, while Jang led behind the scenes.
  • When the succession will be made public is a critical question. Some Pyongyang watchers speculate that it will be attached to an auspicious date in North Korean history. Many point to April 2012, which would mark the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth. Of course, the health of Kim Jong Il, which has appeared to worsen in recent months, will probably drive the timing of this announcement.
Pedro Gonçalves

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il 'names youngest son as successor' | World news | guardi... - 0 views

  • Kim, 67, has instructed officials to pledge allegiance to their leader-in-waiting, the reports said, after informing the military, politicians and overseas missions of his nomination in a secret message sent soon after North Korea tested a nuclear weapon on 25 May.
  • During Kim's convalescence, North Korea was effectively ruled by his brother-in-law, Jang Song-taek, who is married to his younger sister. Jang, who was officially named the country's second-in-command in April, has become a key Kim ally, even though the leader had him put under house arrest several years ago amid suspicions he was building a rival power base.
  • In January this year, reports emerged that Jong-un had been named as Kim's successor and last month it was reported that he had been appointed to the national defence commission, an obvious route for someone being groomed for leadership.
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  • The Dong-a Ilbo newspaper said North Koreans were already learning a new song written specially for Jong-un and referring to him as "the young leader". His father is known as the country's "dear leader" while his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, the country's founder who died in 1994, is referred to as the "great leader".
  • Writing in the April issue of Foreign Affairs, Ken E Gause, a North Korea specialist, cited sources as saying that Kim – health permitting – could opt for April 2012, the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth.
Pedro Gonçalves

North Korea threatens 'merciless' nuclear offensive | World news | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • "Our nuclear deterrent will be a strong defensive means ... as well as a merciless offensive means to deal a just retaliatory strike to those who touch the country's dignity and sovereignty even a bit," the state-run Minju Joson newspaper said in a commentary carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
  • Separately, a man reported to be the eldest son of the North Korean ruler, Kim Jong-il, added weight to reports that his youngest brother would succeed his father."Well, I hear the news by media. I think [it's] true," Kim Jong-nam said in an interview with the Japanese broadcaster TV Asahi. "My father loves very much my brother as his son. I hope he can do his best for North Korean people for their happiness and better life."
  • Kim Jong-nam had been considered the favorite to succeed his father, but reportedly fell out of favour due to his wayward lifestyle. In 2001, he was caught trying to enter Japan on a fake passport and reportedly told officials he wanted to visit Tokyo Disneyland. His mother was the late actress Sung Hae-rim.
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