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New U.S. defence strategy puts more focus on Asia | Reuters - 0 views

  • President Barack Obama unveiled a defense strategy on Thursday that calls for greater U.S. military presence in Asia and envisions cutting troops in Europe as the Pentagon seeks to reduce spending by nearly half a trillion dollars after a decade of war
  • Obama, in a Pentagon news conference alongside Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, released a strategy document that calls for the United States to maintain a force that can win one war while still having the capability to deter the objectives of an adversary in a second conflict.That is a shift away from the military's often repeated goal of being able to fight and prevail in two wars in different theatres simultaneously.
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Firepower bristles in South China Sea as rivalries harden | Reuters - 0 views

  • In the early years of China's rise to economic and military prowess, the guiding principle for its government was Deng Xiaoping's maxim: "Hide Your Strength, Bide Your Time." Now, more than three decades after paramount leader Deng launched his reforms, that policy has seemingly lapsed or simply become unworkable as China's military muscle becomes too expansive to conceal and its ambitions too pressing to postpone.
  • The current row with Southeast Asian nations over territorial claims in the energy-rich South China Sea is a prime manifestation of this change, especially the standoff with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal.
  • In what is widely interpreted as a counter to China's growing influence, the United States is pushing ahead with a muscular realignment of its forces towards the Asia-Pacific region, despite Washington's fatigue with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Pentagon's steep budget cuts.And regional nations, including those with a history of adversarial or distant relations with the United States, are embracing Washington's so-called strategic pivot to Asia.
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  • As part of the strategic pivot unveiled in January, the United States will deploy 60 per cent of its warships in the Asia-Pacific, up from 50 per cent now. They will include six aircraft carriers and a majority of the U.S. navy's cruisers, destroyers, littoral combat ships and submarines.
  • "Make no mistake, in a steady, deliberate and sustainable way, the United States military is rebalancing and bringing an enhanced capability development to this vital region," Panetta told the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security conference in Singapore attended by civilian and military leaders from Asia-Pacific and Western nations.
  • reports last week in China's state-controlled media and online military websites suggested that the first of a new class of a stealthy littoral combat frigate, the type 056, had been launched at Shanghai's Hudong shipyard with three others under construction.Naval analysts said the new 1,700-tonne ship, armed with a 76mm main gun, missiles and anti-submarine torpedoes, would be ideal for patrolling the South China Sea.These new warships would easily outgun the warships of rival claimants, they said.
  • As part of his swing through Asia last week, Panetta also visited India and Vietnam in a bid to enhance security ties with two key regional powers that have not been traditional U.S. allies but are increasingly apprehensive about China's rise.At Vietnam's deep water port of Cam Ranh Bay, a key U.S. base during the Vietnam War, Panetta said the use of this harbour would be important to the Pentagon as it moved more ships to Asia.
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World economies prepare for panic after Greek polls | Reuters - 0 views

  • Officials from the G20 nations, whose leaders are meeting in Mexico next week, said that central banks were ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets - if needed - by providing liquidity and prevent any credit squeeze after Sunday's election. Canada is "ready to act" if the situation takes a serious turn for the worse of there is "an external shock," Andrew MacDougall, a spokesman for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said on Thursday.
  • Greek banking stocks soared more than 20 percent on Thursday amid market talk that secret opinion polls were showing that a government favourable to the international bailout agreement was likely to emerge after the June 17 election.
  • Central bankers are ready to ensure enough cash is flowing through the financial system if severe market strains emerge after the elections in Greece, which coincide with votes in Egypt and France, G20 officials said."The central banks are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity," said a senior G20 aide familiar with discussions among international financial diplomats.
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  • Britain did not wait for the elections to announce action. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the country would launch a scheme to provide cheap long-term funding to banks to encourage them to lend to businesses and consumers.
  • King said the euro zone's problems were causing a crisis of confidence in Britain that was leading to a self-reinforcing weaker picture of growth."The black cloud has dampened animal spirits so that businesses and households are battening down the hatches to prepare for the storms ahead," he said.
  • Faced with Greek defiance, officials said the euro zone would not tear up the main targets of the bailout no matter who wins the elections, but it might consider giving a new government in Athens some leeway on how it reaches them.
  • "The headline targets cannot be changed," one senior EU official told Reuters. "There could be some tweaks to the path to get there, but not the goals.
  • One euro-zone official said that the main concern, if SYRIZA overwhelmingly won the election, was the risk of large capital outflows from Greece if depositors worry their savings in euros could later be frozen or converted into new drachmas."It is not even about a bank run on Monday morning after the elections. People can now log on to Internet banking and make transfers on Sunday evening as well," an official said, explaining the rationale of the ministerial call.
  • Visiting Rome, Hollande called for the euro zone to adopt bold new mechanisms to insulate member states and their banks from market turmoil, such as a joint fund to pay down debt, putting him on a collision course with Berlin."We need imagination and creativity to find new financial instruments," Hollande told a news conference. "To deepen financial union, there are many options such as a financial transactions tax and joint debt issuance, including euro bonds, euro bills or a debt redemption fund."
  • However, Merkel rejected "miracle solutions" such as issuing joint euro bonds or creating a Europe-wide deposit guarantee scheme. Such proposals were "counterproductive" and would violate the German constitution, she told parliament.
  • She warned against overstraining the resources of Europe's biggest economy, saying: "Germany is putting this strength and this power to use for the well-being of people, not just in Germany but also t
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Germany, France present united front on policy | Reuters - 0 views

  • "More than ever, Germany and France are determined to talk with one voice, to adopt common policies, to give Europe the means to met its legitimate ambitions," Sarkozy told reporters at a joint news conference with Merkel."So (we will have) economic governance at the level of the 27 (member states) and in the event of necessity, there'll be meetings concerning euro problems within the euro zone."
  • Merkel stressed that government by the 27 was particularly important to her and that measures aimed at punishing budgetary sinners in the euro zone needed to be ramped up."We need a strengthening of the (EU) Stability and Growth pact. We also agree that we need to consider changes to the (EU) treaties," Merkel said, noting that Germany and France would submit proposals on this matter soon.
  • "One point here could involve withdrawing voting rights for notorious sinners in the euro zone, which seems important to us, because we really need treaties with bite to make this stability and growth culture work," she added.
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  • Merkel and Sarkozy said they were sending a joint letter to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, the G20 chairman, seeking to accelerate reforms in financial regulation.The letter also pushes for a global tax on financial transactions and agreement in principle on a levy on banks to pay for the cost of financial crises, Merkel said.
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Veterans of U.S. Diplomacy Try to Revive Nuclear Arms Talks With Russia - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Three former American secretaries of state and a former secretary of defense were in Moscow on Thursday for informal meetings with top Russian officials in an attempt to pull relations between the United States and Russia out of a tailspin before the countries’ presidents meet for the first time next month. The flurry of so-called track two diplomacy by figures outside government was another gesture of outreach to Russia. A month ago, the Obama administration sent a letter proposing a dialogue on curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions that could diminish American needs for a missile defense system in Eastern Europe.
  • Henry A. Kissinger, who is now 85, the architect of the original détente policy with the Soviet Union in the 1970s, led one group of three former American officials on a visit to the Russian capital. They are advocating a new round of international arms-reductions talks intended to eliminate all nuclear weapons. Separately, James A. Baker III, who was secretary of state when the Berlin Wall fell, was in Moscow for a conference on the politics of Caspian Sea oil and natural gas riches that both Russia and the West are maneuvering to obtain access to.
  • The visits by the former warhorses of American diplomacy toward Russia were seen as testing the waters for President Obama’s intention to, as Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. put it, “press the reset button” on bilateral relations.
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  • Russia has declared a sphere of privileged interest over Ukraine and Georgia, former Soviet states America would like to see admitted to NATO. Russia is considering opening long-range bomber bases in Venezuela. That, in turn, is seen as a response to American plans to position antimissile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.
  • No replacement has been negotiated for Start I, and Russia’s support for Iran’s civilian nuclear industry is thwarting Western efforts to dissuade that country from enriching uranium that could also be used in a bomb.
  • Along with Mr. Kissinger, former Secretary of State George P. Shultz, former Secretary of Defense William Perry and Sam Nunn, a retired Democratic senator from Georgia, were scheduled to meet the Russian president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, on Friday.
  • Mr. Baker said the United States should show a new humility in international relations.“We ought to be big enough on both sides to admit that blame can be directed at both countries for this deterioration in Russian-U.S. relations,” he said. “There’s nothing wrong with doing whatever we can to get this relationship back on the track it was on up until the last few years.”
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BBC NEWS | UK | UK Politics | Brown in new Iran nuclear warning - 0 views

  • Gordon Brown will tell a conference in London that Tehran, which continues to enrich uranium despite global pressure, is a "critical proliferation threat". But he will say a huge expansion of civil nuclear power is needed worldwide to meet carbon reduction targets. Iran says this is what it is doing and refuses to stop its development work.
  • The Iranian government continues to defy the international community, enriching enough uranium - according to a recent report by the International Atomic Energy Authority - to fill a warhead.
  • Defence Secretary John Hutton told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that, if Iran continued with its nuclear weapons programme, it "would be very destabilising for the region and the world. The consequences of that are too frightening to think about".
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  • Mr Hutton said: "They haven't actually got a civil nuclear power reactor. So people are right to raise eyebrows about their programme."
  • He added: "We have got to be clear with Iran about the consequences of them not complying. The clock is ticking on all of this... "The offer is still on the table for the Iranians to take up this extraordinarily generous and, I think, unprecedented offer to help them with their [civil] programme."
  • Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is facing elections this year, has shown little sign of wanting a "deal" to put the country's nuclear programme under international supervision in return for the lifting of sanctions and financial assistance.
  • According to International Atomic Energy Agency forecasts, more than 30 nuclear reactors will have to built every year if the world is to meet its target of halving carbon emissions by 2050.
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BBC NEWS | Middle East | Netanyahu 'will be peace partner' - 0 views

  • Israel's next Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has said his government will be a "partner for peace" with the Palestinians.
  • The Likud leader pledged to work for peace, security and "rapid development of the Palestinian economy".
  • "I think that the Palestinians should understand that they have in our government a partner for peace, for security and for rapid economic development of the Palestinian economy," he said. "Peace: It's not the last goal. It's a common and enduring goal for all Israelis and all Israeli governments - mine included," he added. But there was no word about a possible two-state solution, which Palestinian negotiators have been urging him to adopt.
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  • In a televised news conference on Tuesday, US President Barack Obama - who also backs Palestinian statehood - said peace efforts would not get "easier" with a Netanyahu government, but were "just as necessary".
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BBC NEWS | Americas | Nato woos Russia on Afghanistan - 0 views

  • Nato has agreed to resume high-level contacts with Russia, working with what US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called a "greater unity of purpose".
  • Russia welcomed the move, six months after Nato froze contacts over the conflict between Russia and Georgia. Mrs Clinton stressed Afghanistan, which she called "Nato's biggest military challenge", was a mutual concern. She has raised the idea of a conference on the issue, with the participation of "all stakeholders", including Iran.
  • "We can and must find ways to work constructively with Russia where we share areas of common interest, including helping the people of Afghanistan," said Mrs Clinton.
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  • But UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband told the BBC that it was not "business as usual" with Moscow. Mr Miliband said the resumption of ties would provide an opportunity to engage with Moscow "in a hardheaded way". He said "the invasion of Georgia and continuing infringement of its sovereignty" could not be "swept under the carpet".
  • Mrs Clinton added that Nato "should continue to open Nato's door to European countries such as Georgia and Ukraine and help them meet Nato standards".
  • Earlier, Russia's envoy to Nato defended the war against Georgia and said any new relationship with Nato would be on Moscow's own terms.
  • Some, like Germany and France, had long been pressing for the resumption of ties with Russia, arguing that their suspension has been counter-productive.
  • Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's permanent envoy to Nato, predicted an outcome of the Brussels talks "that should, on the whole, satisfy Russia" but made clear he saw Moscow negotiating from a position of strength. "We came out of the crisis that we had after the August 2008 events [the war with Georgia], the crisis in the South Caucasus, stronger," he told Russian channel Vesti TV. "Our Western colleagues saw in Russia a partner that one cannot wipe one's feet on. We are strong... and we are restoring cooperation, including on our terms."
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Think Twice on Bashir | Print Article | Newsweek.com - 0 views

  • policymakers ought to think twice before following through on the ICC's decision. While the warrant sends a clear signal to Bashir and others with blood on their hands that justice will be served, it has already halted further progress at the Darfur peace talks that have been underway in Qatar between Khartoum and the most powerful rebel group, the Justice and Equality Movement. While these talks have to date yielded little more than a good-will agreement to end the conflict, it appears that thearrest warrant for Bashir has shattered even these fragile gains, as the rebel group announced in the wake of the ICC warrant that it is pulling back from further negotiations. Bashir too may now see little to gain from them.
  • The warrant could also endanger the United Nations peacekeepers and humanitarian workers who have done so much to reduce the suffering in the region. Although the horrors continue in Darfur, they are nowhere near the level that existed before these workers were allowed to operate. Soon after the ICC ruling, Sudan announced that it was expelling many aid groups, which will clearly jeapordize the delivery of much-needed humanitarian assistance. The UN could be next.
  • Finally, and most ominously, the warrant could undermine the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between northern and southern Sudan, which brought to an end a civil war that lasted 20 years and cost more than 2 million lives. This landmark deal is fraying badly already. Elections scheduled for 2009 are behind schedule, and implementation of wealth and power-sharing provisions have stalled. Bashir fought many in his party to sign the CPA, and leaders in the south now worry that the indictment will jeopardize the 2011 referendum giving it the right to secede from Sudan. Collapse of the CPA would almost certainly lead to renewed conflict between north and south, with fragmentation and bloodshed that could rival the violence of Darfur at its worst.
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  • So what to do? Africa's regional leaders may provide the answer. The African Union has for some time been pushing to have the indictment deferred by the U.N. Security Council, which it has the authority to do under Article 16 of the ICC charter.
  • Support for deferral is widespread among African leaders
  • The Arab League, the Non-Aligned Movement, the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the semiautonomous government of Southern Sudan have also voiced support for a deferral.
  • deferring the warrant would be contingent upon concessions from Bashir and his party—namely, agreements to work to hasten the implementation of the CPA, hold elections this year and work with the UN and international mediators toward peace in Darfur, starting immediately with a ceasefire.
  • the United States could always push to reinstate the indictment and use the warrant as leverage to compel Khartoum to act and honor its commitments.
  • A conditional suspension of the ICC's warrant for Bashir is the best way to prevent a collapse of the CPA, protect those still in need and force Khartoum to act toward ending the conflict in Darfur.
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BBC NEWS | Europe | Seven held over Dutch 'bomb plot' - 0 views

  • Seven people have been arrested in the Netherlands on suspicion of planning to blow up shops in Amsterdam.
  • The suspects, six men and a woman, are Dutch citizens of Moroccan origin.
  • District Attorney Herman Bolhaar told a news conference: "As far as we can tell, none involved has a history of terrorist involvement." One of those arrested was related to a suspect in the 2004 Madrid train bombings, he added.
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UN climate chief: US carbon cuts could spark 'revolution' | Environment | The Guardian - 0 views

  • Obama has said the US will work to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. Europe has pledged to cut them by 20-30% on 1990 levels by 2020. The IPCC says developed nations should aim for 25-40% cuts by then to avoid dangerous climate change.Speaking on the fringes of a high-level scientific conference on climate change in Copenhagen, Pachauri told the Guardian: "He [Obama] is not going to say by 2020 I'm going to reduce emissions by 30%. He'll have a revolution on his hands. He has to do it step by step." Pachauri's remarks echo those of Todd Stern, the US president's new chief climate negotiator, who said last week that it was "not possible" for the US to aim for 25-40% cuts by 2020.
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BBC News - China demands Iran nuclear talks, despite US pressure - 0 views

  • China says diplomacy should be given further time in the dispute over Iran's nuclear programme, as US officials press for new sanctions on Tehran.
  • China's latest statement came as a senior US diplomat, James Steinberg, arrived in Beijing on the highest level visit since a series of bilateral rows. On Monday, Moscow signalled it would consider new sanctions against Tehran. And Iran rejected a UN International Atomic Energy Agency claim it was not co-operating with its investigation.
  • Asked about Moscow's statement, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said: "We call for a resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic means.
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  • "We believe there is still room for diplomatic efforts and the parties concerned should intensify those efforts."
  • Speaking in Paris on Monday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said he was open to the idea of sanctions - as a last resort. "Russia is ready, together with our other partners, to consider introducing sanctions" if there is no breakthrough in the negotiations, he told a news conference after talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy. "These sanctions should be calibrated and smart. These sanctions should not target the civilian population," the Russian leader was quoted as saying by AFP news agency.
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BBC News - China slows rise in military spending - 0 views

  • China has said its military spending will increase by 7.5% in 2010, ending a long run of double-digit growth.It will spend 532.1bn yuan ($77.9bn:£51.7bn) over the year, the spokesman of the country's annual parliamentary session announced.
  • According to Chinese figures, this is the first time in more than 20 years that the military budget increase has dipped below 10%.
  • The spending spree began in the late 1980s, when China embarked on an ambitious programme to upgrade its armed forces. Since then it has bought and produced its own high-tech weapons, and reduced the number of personnel in an attempt to have fewer, but better trained, troops. Salaries and other benefits for officers and ordinary soldiers have also been improved.
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  • Previous large spending increases could explain the smaller increase this year. "China has achieved its targets in the past by providing continuous double-digit budget increases," said Andrew Yang, an expert on China's military who is now Taiwan's deputy defence minister.
  • Many experts believe the actual amount spent by China on its armed forces is far higher than the published amount.
  • In a recently published book, called The China Dream, a senior officer in China's People's Liberation Army said the country should aim to build a major military force that could challenge the US this century. Other officers attending the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body that holds a meeting at the same time as the parliamentary session, rejected that idea.
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BBC News - Iran hits back at Clinton 'dictatorship' warning - 0 views

  • On Monday Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister said imposing more sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme would not be a quick enough solution.
  • Prince Saud al-Faisal said the threat posed by Iran demanded a "more immediate solution" than sanctions.
  • On Tuesday, Turkey's foreign minister is due in Iran aiming to mediate.
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  • Speaking at a joint Riyadh news conference with Mrs Clinton, Prince Saud said: "Sanctions are a long-term solution. They may work, we can't judge. "But we see the issue in the shorter term maybe because we are closer to the threat... So we need an immediate resolution rather than a gradual resolution."
  • Some regional experts believe neither sanctions nor engagement will work with Iran and have suggested a multi-pronged approach involving intense economic pressure from Iran's neighbours, our correspondent adds.
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France24 - Riyadh unwilling to lobby China over Iran sanctions - 0 views

  • Saudi Arabia on Monday played down suggestions it could encourage China not to block sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme by giving Beijing oil supply guarantees.
  • Saudi Arabia on Monday played down suggestions it could encourage China not to block sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme by giving Beijing oil supply guarantees.
  • Saudi Arabia on Monday played down suggestions it could encourage China not to block sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme by giving Beijing oil supply guarantees.
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  • The Chinese "carry their responsibility" as one of the major world powers and "they need no suggestion from Saudi Arabia to do what they ought to do," Prince Saud said at a joint news conference with Clinton.
  • "Sanctions are a long-term solution (but) ... we see the issue in the shorter term because we are closer to the threat," Prince Saud said.    "If we want security for the region, it requires an Iran at peace and happy with themselves," he added.
  • Clinton's top assistant for the Middle East, Jeffrey Feltman, told reporters travelling with her that China had an "important trading relationship" with the Saudi oil kingpin.    "We would expect them (the Saudis) ... to use their relationship in ways that can help increase the pressure that Iran feels," said Feltman, the assistant secretary of state for Near East Affairs.
  • Clinton said the United States was not aiming to use military action to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions but rather seeking to build support for tough new sanctions at the UN Security Council.    She said the package Washington wanted adopted "will be particularly aimed at those enterprises controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which we believe is in effect supplanting the government of Iran.
  • "We see the government of Iran, the supreme leader, the president, the parliament is being supplanted and Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship," she said.    "They are in charge of the nuclear programme."
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France24 - Sarkozy admits French 'mistakes' in 1994 genocide - 0 views

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy admitted Thursday at a joint press conference in Kigali with his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, that France had made “mistakes” at the time of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which 800,000 people, mainly from Kagame's Tutsi minority, were killed.
  • "What happened here is unacceptable, [and] compels the international community, including France, to reflect on the mistakes that stopped it from preventing and halting this abominable crime," the French president told reporters.
  • Sarkozy also acknowledged “mistakes in Operation Turquoise, which stepped in when it was too little, too late,” referring to a June 1994 French military operation launched two months after the genocide began with the intent of halting the massacres. The French president, however, stopped short of voicing an apology. Suggesting neither country should “remain hostage of the past”, Sarkozy said he wanted to “move past this very tragic chapter” and stressed the importance of “building a new partnership”.
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  • Two years ago, Sarkozy already spoke of "failings” and “errors". But his entourage predicted before his trip to Kigali that he would not go as far as Belgium and the United States, who have both presented an apology.
  • The soured relations between the two countries hit a low ebb in late 2006 when Rwanda decided to sever diplomatic ties with France after a French judge questioned Kagame’s involvement in the death of Habyarimana. Rwanda responded by releasing a report accusing around 30 senior French political and military figures of complicity in the genocide. A series of rulings by the French legal system eventually reassured Kigali.
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Iran and Syria put on show of unity in alliance Clinton finds 'troubling' | World news ... - 0 views

  • Iran and Syria put on a show of defiant unity today, scorning US efforts to break up their alliance and warning Israel not to risk attacking either of them.
  • "The Americans want to dominate the region but they feel Iran and Syria are preventing that," Ahmadinejad said during a press conference with Assad."We tell them that instead of interfering in the region's affairs to pack their things and leave. If the Zionist entity wants to repeats its past errors, its death will be inevitable."
  • Assad made clear that Syria would not distance itself from Iran, its ally since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. "We hope that others don't give us lessons about our region and our history," he said. "We are the ones who decide ... and we know our interests. We thank them for their advice. I find it strange how they talk about Middle East stability and at the same time talk about dividing two countries."
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  • Al-Jazeera reported that Ahmadinejad also met Khaled Mash'al, the Damascus-based leader of the Palestinian movement Hamas, and Ramadan Shallah of Islamic Jihad, both of which are supported by Tehran
  • Two years ago the military leader of Lebanon's Hizbullah, Imad Mughniyeh, was assassinated in Damascus in an attack that was also blamed on Israel's secret service, the Mossad
  • Syria and Iran announced they were cancelling visa restrictions between their countries
  • Clinton said the US wanted Syria "generally to begin to move away from the relationship with Iran, which is so deeply troubling to the region as well as to the United States".
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China to Seek 'Stability' in Tibet via Development - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • The emphasis on economic development indicates that Chinese leaders still see the solution to the problem of Tibet as one of supplying creature comforts. If the region can develop fast enough, the reasoning goes, then Tibetans will buy into Chinese rule.
  • A sign of the importance of the conference was the attendee list: besides Mr. Hu, it included Wen Jiabao, the prime minister; Xi Jinping, the vice president who is the favorite to succeed Mr. Hu; and Li Keqiang, Mr. Xi’s main rival for the top leadership position in China.
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Obama urges China to back Iran nuclear sanctions | World news | guardian.co.uk - 0 views

  • Barack Obama has urged Beijing to "ratchet up the pressure" on Iran over its nuclear programme after a breakthrough for the US administration in persuading China to agree to talks on fresh sanctions against Tehran.
  • diplomats say that while China's agreement to discuss sanctions is a step towards greater unity over Iran, the US and China remain a considerable distance from reaching agreement.China is the last permanent member of the UN security council to oppose any new measures, although there is disagreement among the other permanent members over the extent of additional sanctions.
  • Western officials claimed a breakthrough on Wednesday when they said China had agreed to start drafting a fourth UN security council resolution for sanctions against Iran. They said that in a conference call diplomats from the permanent five members of the security council and Germany had begun discussing the content of a new resolution for the first time. China had hitherto argued that more sanctions were unnecessary and counterproductive.
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  • Obama has expressed hope that a new resolution can be agreed within weeks, before the end of spring, to maintain pressure on Iran. But European diplomats have warned the talks could take much longer. They suggest June might be a more realistic target.
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Nuclear Posture Review - Council on Foreign Relations - 0 views

  • this was the third NPR since the end of the Cold War
  • There is not a classified version of the NPR. There was not a classified version of the QDR or the Ballistic Missile Defense Review
  • we seek, as these -- as states like North Korea and Iran seek to increase their reliance on nuclear weapons, we aren't going to increase our reliance on nuclear weapons. We'd like to increase our reliance on supplementary tools of extended deterrence. But so long as nuclear threats remain for which nuclear weapons are relevant, there will be a nuclear component to this umbrella.
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  • the NPT review conference, which is going to be one of these agonizing, multilateral events
  • we don't say anything about U.S. forward-deployed systems in Europe, and we don't do that because we don't want to act unilaterally. This is an alliance issue and should be dealt with and we should achieve consensus within the alliance.
  • We have opportunities in NATO over the next year, in looking at the alliance's strategic concept, to talk about U.S. forward-deployed nuclear weapons, and we'll do that. It will begin very soon and continue throughout the year, looking at the Lisbon summit meeting in November.
  • Whether we'll have a multilateral negotiation, the NPR doesn't deal with that. We haven't addressed it as a government. I'll express my personal view on that: I don't think we're going to have a multilateral negotiation. (Chuckles.) When we were talking about INF systems in Europe, that wasn't a multilateral negotiation. I don't see it here. And it's not even clear whether the problem of Russian non-strategic weapons is amenable to arms-control kinds of solutions.
  • Connoisseurs of NPRs will not find the word reliance in this NPR. The last NPR said it was an objective of policy to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, and the services took the message, as did lots of other actors. We've said we're trying to reduce the roles and numbers. But where roles remain, deterrence has to be not only maintained but strengthened in the manner of broadening and diversifying
  • the Russians right now are in their modernization phase. They're well into it and working their way through what their next 30 years of delivery vehicles and weapons is going to look like. We haven't really entered it. We're just now starting to get into that side of the equation.
  • how do you keep the balance -- not from a weapons standpoint, but from a stability standpoint -- with China, Russia and the United States, with China getting at the cutting edge of technology and moving as quickly as they can? Maybe they don't have the number of warheads today, but you still have to pay attention. And how do you take then the Russian side of this equation, which is a drastic demographic reduction, yet looking at kind of the reverse of the Fulda Gap? They're worried about divisions to their south, divisions to their west. Weapons have a very different meaning to them today than they did in the Cold War.
  • The Chinese are trying to understand what their threat is and how they're going to handle deterrence, and we're trying to straddle and make sure that we don't unseat this balance.
  • That's why, for me, it's been so important to think beyond nuclear when you're thinking deterrence. Because I just don't think nuclear is enough, in the broad spectrum of threat that we'll face.
  • the president has come out and said as long as we have a need for our nuclear stockpiles, as long as other nations have them, he is committed to maintaining them. He is committed to revitalizing the infrastructure, the experimental capabilities, the buildings where these people work. Much of the infrastructure I've got, particularly the uranium/plutonium infrastructure, literally dates back to the early 1950s. They were designed in the '40s, built and started operating in 1952. So it's going to take us 10 years to get this up. So it takes a sustained effort, and that's what it's going to take.
  • Obviously, our forward-deployed systems in Europe are -- it's a political-military issue. And I understand that the NPR did not want to prejudice the discussions underway at NATO. But if I can just separate the military for a moment, is there a military mission performed by these aircraft-delivered weapons that cannot be performed by either U.S. strategic forces or U.S. conventional forces? CARTWRIGHT: No. (Scattered laughter.)
  • It doesn't anywhere say we're committed to reducing reliance on. We're committed to reducing the roles and reducing the salience of, internationally
  • On the NATO topic, I wish it were as simple. I would put a question back: what targets do NATO's weapons have? Not nuclear. Any weapon in NATO. An alliance that doesn't have an enemy -- (scattered laughter) -- so the argument about where nuclear weapons might be pointed is only a part of the argument.
  • The theme we carry in the NPR and that we're going to carry forward to Tolline (ph) and beyond is that nuclear sharing is what has been essential to NATO, in terms of the credibility of deterrence and assurance. And the choices NATO makes are interpreted by its members as being reflective of how committed those members are to their Article V obligations. And there are plenty of NATO's members who are worried that NATO would make a choice to abandon nuclear weapons and thus put at risk their ability to do Article V actions. And so when we've said in our policy goal we are interested in strengthening regional deterrence and reassurance of allies, these are two sides of the same coin
  • Where we try and lead NATO -- the president said about NATO, he was there a year ago, to listen and learn and we'll come back to lead. As we come back to lead on this NATO nuclear topic, we're going to bring the messages of burden and risk sharing, because these are essential to the -- uniquely to this alliance. The NPR talks about extended deterrence in Europe, East Asia and the Middle East. Uniquely to the European landscape is this risk and burden-sharing dimension. And it's a different way of think about the capabilities question.
  • as General Cartwright observed, the technical possibilities of breakthrough and breakout capabilities are there, but the ones that Russia and China most worry about are our possible breakout capabilities. And if we're serious about meeting their requirements for strategic stability, we need to do a better job than we have of putting all of this together in a comprehensive role and getting off of defensive mode and saying, oh, don't worry, missile defenses aren't pointed at you, and strategic stability is untroubled by our capabilities, and get on to a more solid foundation.
  • we've tried to engage Russia on missile defense. We have proposals for extensive cooperation in the area of missile defense. The Russians haven't been interested, so far, in engaging on that. And not to mention the difficulties of engaging with them on non-strategic forces.
  • We need to reassure our allies for -- because we're committed to do that, but also because for a nonproliferation reason, we don't want them to develop a -- to feel they have incentives to acquire their own deterrent capabilities.
  • I think this is a balanced report; this is not a revolutionary report. Some were hoping for more on declaratory policy. Some were hoping that we'd go for a no-first-use approach, say that the sole purpose of U.S. nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack. We weren't prepared to go there.
  • We believe there remains a narrow range of contingencies in which nuclear weapons continue to play a role in deterring non-nuclear attack. We're prepared to state that as an objective, but not to say we're ready yet.
  • I think going farther faster would have been unsettling to some of our friends around the world. I think it would be unsettling to domestic audiences as well. And we -- to be frank, the administration had its sights set on gaining two-thirds of the U.S. Senate for ratification of START and the CTBT. And I think this document will move us toward the goals enunciated by the president without kind of upsetting the apple cart and making this difficult to have further progress.
  • it does seem to me that in this document, the U.S. is saying we withhold the right to use nuclear weapons against an Iran that has no nuclear weapons. And in making this particular threat, we're basically just extending the continuity from the Bush administration that keeps all military options on the table and, whether explicitly or implicitly, also had threatened Iran to use nuclear weapons against Iran that did not have nuclear weapons. So I guess the way I would end this question is, is this the right message for the Green movement in Iran, for the Brazils and the Turkeys of the world that this U.S., which says it's reducing the role of nuclear weapons, reserves the right to use this weapon of mass destruction against an Iran that does not yet have nuclear weapons? EINHORN: This negative security assurance was about assuring non-nuclear weapon states, party to the NPT in good standing with the NPT. It was not about threatening -- (chuckles) -- those that are not in good standing. I know -- the Iranians will try to capitalize, there'll be a lot of Iranian propaganda that this whole thing is about an implicit threat to Iran. It's not about an implicit threat to Iran.
  • we made clear in the NPR that countries that are not -- we're not increasing the likelihood of using nuclear weapons against countries that are not eligible to receive this pledge. The countries that are not covered by the pledge are simply not affected by it. It's not as if we've increased the threat to France or Russia or the U.K. or something like that. And neither have we increased the threat to North Korea or Iran. The situation is simply unaffected.
  • Or we're as serious about NPT membership as we are compliance, because the pledge is also not offered to Israel, India and Pakistan. But it seems like those three countries are in much better shape than Iran, even though Iran is partially in compliance with its IAEA safeguards agreement.
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