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Haydn W

France's Fiscal Policy Targets Very Challenging Says IMF - NASDAQ.com - 0 views

  • PARIS--French President Francois Hollande has chosen the right path to repair the country's economy and finances, but its fiscal targets are very challenging, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.
  • At the start of the year, the socialist leader switched from a policy of tax increases to spending cuts to bring down the budget deficit.
  • The planned reduction in taxes mean that the cutbacks to spending relative to trend will need to be very large if public finances are to be brought back to balance
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  • If the government delivers the EUR50 billion ($68.5 billion) of savings over 2015 to 2017 that would be "remarkable by historical standards," the IMF said.
  • data on Thursday showed the French economy remained weak at the start of this year, while Germany posted better-than-expected growth. France escaped the wider euro-zone recession that followed the bloc's debt crisis, but it has failed to post strong growth for the last two years and the government has repeatedly missed its targets for bringing down the deficit.
  • Mr. Hollande launched a Responsibility Pact, under which payroll taxes on businesses would be cut in an effort to boost investment and recruitment
  • The IMF said the measures in the Responsibility Pact would only slowly boost growth to around 1% this year and 1.5% in 2015. It also warned there are risks of a weaker rebound and that inflation would remain around 1% with the economy operating well below capacity.
  • The IMF said the European Central Bank--which indicated last week it may launch stimulus measures in June--could do more to help France meet its targets.
  • "More accommodative monetary conditions would help with the implementation of the fiscal program and bring forward the benefits of structural reforms," the fund said.
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    This article details France's success in it's road to recovery following the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. This week the IMF has hailed president François Hollande's cutback path to repair the countries economy but commented that his targets may be 'very challenging.' This comes after the French government has delivered vast savings through austerity measures whilst retaining general stability despite the rise of far-right groups like The Front National. In my opinion for a country in the eurozone Hollande's France seems to be doing well for itself on the road to recovery and could set an example for other Eurozone countries, like Greece and Portugal.
Clemente F

Mixed messages - 0 views

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    This article talks about the market which was probably more affected by this crisis. The house markets. The article presents data through which it is clear that the demand for house's has fallen and therefore the prices went down a lot. The only country where the house market is still growing is London in which the demand is very high.
Amanda Anna G

U.S. be warned: Default would cause global crisis - CNN.com - 0 views

  • The impact of default could be catastrophic, and not just economically. As Secretary of State John Kerry asserts, this would send a message "of political silliness" that we "can't get our own act together" so we need to "get back on a track the world will respect."
  • As the U.S. partial government shutdown continues into almost a third week, the stakes are growing
  • This builds on earlier studies by the organization, including in 2011-12 which highlighted "intensified speculation about America's long-term stability," partly as a result of the downgrade by Standard & Poor's of the country's credit rating. This was prompted by the last near debt default of Washington in 2011.
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  • Then, as now, however, the country retains attractive qualities for many foreigners, including its popular culture and economic innovation.
  • And the fact remains that, in times of major urgency, Washington can transcend partisan divisions and work in the national interest.
  • This was demonstrated, for instance, during the 2008-9 financial crisis when Congress and the administration acted more swiftly and comprehensively than many other countries to counteract the worst economic turmoil since at least the 1930s. This has been key in enabling the country to recover more quickly from recession than some other areas of the world. While current problems should therefore be put into context, the situation is nonetheless troubling. And this is not the first time this year that a Washington political impasse has threatened negative economic repercussions
  • Only at the 11th hour did Congress in January agree a deal to prevent the U.S. falling off the "fiscal cliff." It is estimated that the automatic tax increases and spending cuts might well have taken the U.S. economy back into recession.
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    This article relates to equilibrium and price mechanism because it describes changes in impacts of the market. Stakes are growing, there are "intensified speculation about America's long-term stability" due to a downgrade in the country's credit rating, and an unstable state at the "fiscal cliff". These worries and a political impasse in Washington are some impacts that has threatened negative economic repercussions in the US, moving the market equilibrium. In response to changes in price, resources are allocated and re-allocated. However, profits are still able to be made making the equilibrium more stable without excess demand and supply, due to that the US has its popular culture and economic innovation, helping the country to retain attractive qualities for many foreigners.
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    I think this is a very serious matter, that could affect the world's over all economy if it goes on for a while. We can see that obviously a majority of the world's largest companies are american and based in america. If this effects any of those companies, the market they operate at will see a big change, both in the good way and the bad one.
Zube Iheobi

European Central Bank slashes interest rates as eurozone suffers 'lowflation' crisis - ... - 0 views

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    this is relevent to this weeks reading because it amother way of the government making changes, however here its not the government its the central bank. and acts of the central baks are more monetary poilicy as they predominantly affect AD
Samuel Choi

RBI cautious on response to gold import surge - 0 views

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    India, the world's second-largest gold-consuming country, is battling a balance of payments crisis as the gold import industry grew exponentially in a short amount of time. Though the spike in the import numbers is clear, no clear action has been taken yet; policymakers, however, agree that restrictions must be placed on private trading houses. Private jewelry exporters are the main customers and account for a massive number of the bulk for the demand of gold. "India sharply restricted gold imports in early 2013 as the country battled a balance of payments crisis triggered by the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement that it would start to ease its programme of quantitative easing. But it eased some of the measures after India's current account deficit fell sharply from the record high of 4.8 percent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ended in March 2013 to 1.7 percent in the quarter ending in June."
Haydn W

Ukraine Uncertainty Depressing Growth and Investment | The Moscow Times - 5 views

  • As world leaders increase or trash their political clout depending on their audience and the statements they make about the situation in the Ukraine, some analysts were revising Russian GDP growth estimates to as low as 1.1 percent for the year.
  • Wednesday was a calmer day on the stock markets, following a dip of 10.8 percent Monday morning that vaporized near $60 billion of valuation from Russian companies.
  • Although Russia has seen some short-term budget benefits from ruble devaluation and increasing oil prices, the current impasse is not helping to fight stagnation or attract investment.
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  • The ruble strengthened slightly to 36 against the dollar and 49.4 against the euro Wednesday evening. This was well above the lows reached on Monday
  • Tightening fiscal policy was topped by possibly impending U.S. sanctions, including economic ones, followed by President Vladimir Putin's claims that Russia may use force in Ukraine if necessary.
  • The heap of these latest events has caused some analysts to revise their overall economy forecasts.
  • PSB Research said Wednesday it would decrease its initially modest GDP growth estimates for the year from the range of 1.5 to 1.8 percent to 1.1 to 1.3 percent.
  • Political standoff will also further stimulate the outflow of capital, Fedotkova said, as investors are reluctant to channel their money into the country that may be possibly involved in any kind of military activity
  • As for businesses, a recent survey done by the Gaidar Institute suggests that more than a third of CEOs and owners of private companies would consider investing in production this year if the price for equipment went down and if the macroeconomic outlook were more certain, Vedomosti reported Monday. At the same time macroeconomic uncertainty was a headache for only 10 percent of surveyed state-controlled companies. No margin of error was given for the survey.
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    This article explains how the recent stand-off crisis in Ukraine is having a negative effect on the Russian economy, with the Rouble taking a further fall and GDP growth estimates being revised downwards. Predictably sanctions imposed by the west on Russia in response to the occupation of Crimea, an autonomous region of Ukraine populated largely by ethnic Russians, have affected businesses in Russia. We learn from the article that some $60 billion valuation has been lost by Russian companies in light of the tensions. This article relates to the macroeconomic concept of circular flow being a complex process with international trade and governments being involved majorly in proceedings.
Haydn W

The return of the US dollar | Mohamed El-Erian | Business | theguardian.com - 4 views

  • The return of the US dollar The resurgence of the US currency could be the first promising step in steering the world economy away from crisis
  • The US dollar is on the move. In the last four months alone, it has soared by more than 7% compared with a basket of more than a dozen global currencies, and by even more against the euro and the Japanese yen.
  • Two major factors are currently working in the dollar’s favour
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  • Second, after a period of alignment, the monetary policies of these three large and systemically important economies are diverging, taking the world economy from a multi-speed trajectory to a multi-track one.
  • First, the United States is consistently outperforming Europe and Japan in terms of economic growth and dynamism – and will likely continue to do so – owing not only to its economic flexibility and entrepreneurial energy, but also to its more decisive policy action since the start of the global financial crisis.
  • With higher US market interest rates attracting additional capital inflows and pushing the dollar even higher, the currency’s revaluation would appear to be just what the doctor ordered when it comes to catalysing a long-awaited global rebalancing – one that promotes stronger growth and mitigates deflation risk in Europe and Japan.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi signalled a willingness to expand his institution’s balance sheet by a massive €1 trillion ($1.25 trillion).
  • Furthermore, sudden large currency moves tend to translate into financial-market instability.
  • There is also the risk that, given the role of the ECB and the Bank of Japan in shaping their currencies’ performance, such a shift could be characterized as a “currency war” in the US Congress, prompting a retaliatory policy response.
  • Today, many of these countries have adopted more flexible exchange-rate regimes, and quite a few retain adequate reserve holdings.
  • an appreciating dollar improves the price competitiveness of European and Japanese companies in the US and other markets
  • But a new issue risks bringing about a similarly problematic outcome: By repeatedly repressing financial-market volatility over the last few years, central-bank policies have inadvertently encouraged excessive risk-taking, which has pushed many financial-asset prices higher than economic fundamentals warrant.
  • This is not to say that the currency re-alignment that is currently underway is necessarily a problematic development; on the contrary, it has the potential to boost the global economy by supporting the recovery of some of its most challenged components. But the only way to take advantage of the re-alignment’s benefits, without experiencing serious economic disruptions and financial-market volatility, is to introduce complementary growth-enhancing policy adjustments, such as accelerating structural reforms, balancing aggregate demand, and reducing or eliminating debt overhangs.
  • The US dollar’s resurgence, while promising, is only a first step. It is up to governments to ensure that the ongoing currency re-alignment supports a balanced, stable, and sustainable economic recovery. Otherwise, they may find themselves again in the unpleasant business of mitigating financial instability.
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    This article details the so called resurgence of the US dollar, in terms of currency value. The currency itself has risen by around 7% against other currencies but Guardian economist Mohamed El-Erian warns that without the appropriate accompanying central bank policies, the rise of the dollar could cause further market volatility and at worst a new crash. El-Erian calls for governments to enact policy to support balance the current currency realignment. 
Marenne M

Dutch Economy Emerging From Two-Year Recession - WSJ.com - 1 views

  • he Dutch economy is emerging from a two-year long recession
  • The country's gross domestic product will expand by 0.75% in 2014, slightly higher than a previous forecast of 0.5% growth
  • The economy will grow by 1.25% in 2015, it added
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  • CPB said the government's budget shortfall will narrow to 2.9% of GDP in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015
  • it was hit by the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone and deep problems at home
  • A slump in the housing market has hit highly indebted households
  • he recovery will largely be driven by a pickup in exports as a result of the improving global and European economy
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    This article discusses how the Netherlands are finally picking up after a 2 year long recession. One of the main problems during the recession was that the Dutch citizens became afraid to spend money because they were unsure of their financial state in the near future. This caused a sort of glitch in the macroeconomic cycle of Holland, because people stopped spending and the companies stopped making as much income, therefore people got fired, and the cycle continues on. The economy in Holland is finally picking up and the GDP is said to rise by 0.75% this year.
fie dahl

Eurozone industrial output strengthens in Augusts - 0 views

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    The article is about how the industry is slowly growing stronger in the Eurozone. The article mentions the huge surplus of capacity that persists compared to before the crisis over two years ago.
Amanda Anna G

Wage rises outstrip inflation for first time in six years - Telegraph - 1 views

  • Wage rises outstrip inflation for first time in six years
  • Wage rises are outstripping inflation for the first time in six years, official figures will show on Wednesday, leading to claims that the cost of living crisis is at an end.
  • Inflation figures showed a fall for the sixth month in succession to 1.6 per cent, leading Mr Osborne to say that it was “welcome news for families”. Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics is expected to announce that regular pay is rising at a rate of 1.8 per cent, up from 1.3 per cent.
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    This article is about inflation, and that it has fallen after six months to 1.6 per cent. However, regular pay is  expected to rise in rate from 1.3 per cent to 1.8 per cent. 
Marenne M

Nigeria devalues currency as oil prices drop - FT.com - 5 views

  • Nigeria has devalued its currency by nearly 10 per cent and raised interest rates to record levels, in one of the clearest signs yet of how oil producing nations are struggling as energy prices drop sharply.
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    This article describes the devaluation of the fixed currency rate of Nigeria as a result of the decreased energy prices. Nigeria is an oil producing country and therefore earns a lot of its income through oil exports. Now that the prices of other energy has dropped, there is a lower demand for the Nigerian oil, leading to fewer exports. The Nigerian central bank has now devaluated its currency by 8.4 percent in the hope that the lower prices will encourage a greater demand for their oil exports.
Marenne M

Ebola Brings West Africa Economic Development to Screeching Halt - 0 views

  • United Nations Development Program finds the Ebola epidemic is dramatically setting back prospects for economic development in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.
  • impact of Ebola has caused a breakdown in trust between these governments and their people.
  • “For instance, Liberia is going to record its first negative growth trend in 2014, which we estimate to be something as high as minus 1.8 percent negative growth, which is very serious,"
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  • fragility of the countries' health systems, a lack of health care workers, and cultural practices that often accelerate the spread of Ebola.
  • Ebola crisis in West Africa has resulted in job losses, rising food prices, and agricultural disruption.
  • harp drops in the use of health and education services are likely to increase poverty, child and maternal mortality, and facilitate the spread of HIV/AIDS and malaria, particularly for the rural poor.
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    This article describes the impact of the Ebola virus on the economic development in Western Africa. The lack in health infrastructure has not only lead to negative economic growth, however it has also led to the decreased use of education and healthcare services, increased job losses, rising food prices, agricultural disruption, increased poverty, increased child and maternal mortality, and increased the spread of HIV/AIDS. The initially poor infrastructure in Western Africa has led to negative development.
Haydn W

IMF warns UK of lingering housing and mortgage market risks - Business News - Business ... - 3 views

  • IMF warns UK of lingering housing and mortgage market risks
  • The UK faces lingering risks from housing and mortgage markets despite remaining on track for the fastest growth among the world’s leading economies this year, the International Monetary Fund said today.
  • has pencilled in growth of 3.2% this year — unchanged from its last July update despite a slew of downgrades for several members of the stagnating eurozone.
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  • This is the highest rate forecast among advanced economies, although the IMF has trimmed global forecasts amid fears over a “weak and uneven” recovery in Europe and parts of Asia.
  • The body, led by Christine Lagarde, said the “US and the UK in particular are leaving the financial crisis behind”
  • The Bank of England has identified the housing market as a “blinking warning light” on the economy’s dashboard following the introduction of the Help to Buy scheme last year
  • In June it introduced limits on high loan-to-income home loans to prevent borrowers over-extending themselves, while tighter mortgage lending criteria are slowing runaway prices.
  • The Bank’s latest credit conditions survey found a “significant” fall in the availability of home loans in the past three months after eight successive quarters of expansion.
  • The IMF also warned that more measures such as tax incentives and freeing up land were necessary to improve the rate of housebuilding and keep a lid on runaway house prices.
  • “Supply-side measures are crucial to safeguard housing affordability and mitigate financial stability risks,” it added.
  • Household debt levels remain high at 140% of GDP and, if the Bank’s limits on the lending market fail to gain traction, it may be forced to raise interest rates instead
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    This article from the London Evening Standard details how the IMF have warned the UK government over remaining household debt and the dangers it poses to the economy. The IMF have also called for 'supply side measures... to safeguard housing affordability' - a growing problem in both London and the UK as a whole.
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