Chocolate will become an expensive luxury item due to climate change - Telegraph - 0 views
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Sarah Hansen on 02 Sep 12A new study by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has found that chocolate is rising in demand in countries with new markets, such as China. However, due to global warming and a temperature rise of 2.3 degrees, the crops where cocoa is grown will halve by 2050. This will cause the entire demand curve for chocolate to shift to the right in the next 40 years. So far, an exact number for the price increase is unknown. Price increases have occured in some places, such as West Africa, where the prices have gone up by 10 per cent. Since cocoa needs a specific environment to grow (cool and moist), farmers can either decide whether to move their crops into the shade, which will have high costs, or to switch from growing cocoa to another crop that CAN grow in the arid climate. Some cocoa suppliers think that firms should focus on the quality and not the quantity of chocolate produced. This could have benefits, like better prices for farmers and less child labour. Not only is the chocolate market being affected by global warming, but also the French wine and Italian pasta market. Non-price determinants such as the prices of related goods and expectations of future chocolate costs also play a large role in the chocolate market. If the demand for chocolate goes up in the next decades, the prices will also rise. Due to a change in prices more people will turn to chocolate-related goods like candy and pastries. Also, since a large price increase is expected to come, people will most likely buy as much chocolate as possible while it is still cheap.
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Sarah Hansen on 14 Sep 12It can be deduced for this article that the scarcity for chocolate is increasing, just as the demand is. Due to shifts to the right in the demand curve, the price of chocolate has increased. Therefore, the demand curve will shift to the right and move up along the scarcity curve. Therefore, consumers will make sure to ration chocolate, as it has now become more expensive and less affordable. Other markets, like the candy market for example, that act as a substitute for chocolate will experience an increase in demand. On the other hand, markets like the chocolate chip cookie market, will experience a decrease in the supply curve, as chocolate is no longer as available as before. From the chocolate producers' perspective, they will increase the production of chocolate, as the prices are higher now and they can make more of a profit. Therefore, they will increase the allocation of resources towards the production of chocolate (like machinery, land for plantations, etc).