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In The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain, Tali Sharot argues that we have a neurobiological basis for imagining a positive future. "Humans," she writes, "do not hold a positivity bias on account of having read too many self-help books. Rather, optimism may be so essential to our survival that it is hardwired into our most complex organ, the brain."

"In 1959, an American researcher named Ted Sterling reported something disturbing. Of 294 articles published across four major psychology journals, 286 had reported positive results - that is, a staggering 97% of published papers were underpinned by statistically significant effects. Where, he wondered, were all the negative results - the less exciting or less conclusive findings? Sterling labelled this publication bias a form of malpractice. After all, getting published in science should never depend on getting the "right results"."

"In their book "Scorecasting", Toby Mascowitz, an economist, and Jon Wertheim, a journalist, make the provocative argument that home-field advantage, regardless of the sport in question, is caused entirely by biased referees. Umpires in baseball are more likely to call a strike on a close pitch if the visitors are batting. Football referees grant more extra time when the home team is trailing than when it is ahead."

"One of the most fascinating examples of heuristics and biases is what we call intuition - a complex cluster of cognitive processes, sometimes helpful but often misleading. Kahneman notes that thoughts come to mind in one of two ways: Either by "orderly computation," which involves a series of stages of remembering rules and then applying them, or by perception, an evolutionary function that allows us to predict outcomes based on what we're perceiving. (For instance, seeing a woman's angry face helps us predict the general sentiment and disposition of what she's about to say.) It is the latter mode that precipitates intuition. Kahneman explains the interplay:"

"A new survey for the Royal Statistical Society and King's College London shows public opinion is repeatedly off the mark on issues including crime, benefit fraud and immigration. The research, carried out by Ipsos Mori from a phone survey of 1,015 people aged 16 to 75, lists ten misconceptions held by the British public. Among the biggest misconceptions are:"

"This is a powerful example of how our biases can blind us. But not in the way Dr. Tyson thought. Mr. Bush wasn't blinded by religious bigotry. Instead, Dr. Tyson was fooled by his faith in the accuracy of his own memory."