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HOTEL STOCK PRICE volatility dragged the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in November. Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs significantly underperformed their respective benchmarks during the month. The Baird/STR index fell 7.6 percent during the month from October. However, it was up 11.5 percent year to date through the first 11 months of 2021. The index rose 6.8 percent during October compared to September. The index was behind both the S&P 500, which fell 0.8 percent in November, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 0.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index dropped 7.2 percent from October while the hotel REIT sub-index slipped 8.9 percent. "Hotel stock price volatility continued in November with both the Hotel brands and Hotel REITs significantly underperforming their respective benchmarks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Two different investment narratives drove stock price performance during the month: In early November, third quarter earnings were better than expected, reopening optimism continued to gain momentum, and the hotel brands were hitting new all-time highs; but, by the end of the month, broader growth and inflation concerns surfaced, the Omicron variant spooked investors and impacted all travel-related stocks, and the hotel REITs were hitting new year-to-date lows."

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels continued to perform well in November with recovery indices up compared to October and 2019, according to a report from The Highland Group. However, the market is showing signs of slowing. All extended-stay segments posted RevPAR gains in November compared to last year, the US Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: November 2022 report said. "Monthly gains in ADR and RevPAR have decelerated for most of the year and November increases were the lowest in 2022. Both economy and mid-price segments reported RevPAR increases well below the rate of inflation for the first time in November," the report said. "ADR growth is still high compared to long-term averages but with the economy segment reporting its eighth consecutive monthly decline in demand and mid-price extended-stay hotel demand also declining in November, rate resistance is building especially at lower price points."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased in the second week of November compared to the week before, according to STR. All performance metrics improved during the week compared to same period in 2019 as well. Occupancy was 64.6 for the week ending Nov. 12, up from 62.4 the week before and increased 0.9 percent from 2019. ADR was $148.43 during the week, improved from $147.48 the week before and up 17.1 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $95.89 during the second week of November, increased from $91.99 the week before and up 18.2 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Norfolk/Virginia Beach reported the largest occupancy increase, up 14.3 percent to 63.6 percent, over November 2019. San Diego posted the largest ADR increase, increased 35.2 percent to $202.86, over 2019.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 2.7 percent in November according to STR. However, hotel stocks were relative underperformers during the month for the first time since June. The index jumped 15.8 percent in October. The index was down 5.5 percent year-to-date through the first 11 months of 2022. In November, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell behind both the S&P 500, up 5.4 percent and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 5.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index increased 3.7 percent from October to 9,804, while the Hotel REIT sub-index fell 0.2 percent.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 12.7 percent in December over the previous month. It was up 25.6 percent for 2021 as a whole. The index outperformed both the S&P 500, up 4.4 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 8.2 percent in December. The hotel brand sub-index increased 13.2 percent from November while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 10.9 percent. Investment was bolstered by some, if not good, then less bad than expected news regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel stocks ended a volatile year with strong gains in December as the worst-case scenarios related to the Omicron variant appeared unlikely to unfold as initially feared," Bellisario said. "With the big rebound into year-end, the hotel brands ended up slightly outperforming the S&P 500 in 2021, while the hotel REITs - despite gaining 12 percent on the year - significantly lagged the RMZ's best-ever annual performance. Turning the calendar to 2022, leisure travel strength is expected to persist, but the wildcard for the overall industry's continued recovery remains a more substantialreturn of the business traveler."

ECONOMIC HEADWINDS AND geopolitical concerns are expected to affect U.S. hotel performance in 2024, according to PwC. The issues include continuing high interest rates and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Occupancy levels have consistently decreased over the past seven months compared to the same period in 2022. This downward trend is anticipated to persist for the remainder of this year and extend into at least the first quarter of 2024. However, PwC forecasts a 63 percent annual occupancy rate for US hotels this year. Hotels in the U.S. experienced a weakening in leisure demand during the latter part of this year, as global vacation destinations reopened, and leisure travelers regained confidence in traveling abroad, PwC said in its latest report titled U.S. Hospitality Directions: November 2023. Moreover, gains in individual and group business travel haven't completely counteracted this softening.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the fourth week of October compared to the week before, according to STR. When compared to 2019, occupancy increased as a result of the Halloween calendar shift, as the holiday fell during the comparable week three years ago. STR reminded that in the first week of November performance metrics will show the negative side of that shift. Occupancy was 65.8 percent for the week ending Oct. 29, down from 69.9 percent the week before and up 5.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $152.94 during the week, dipped from $157.43 the week before and up 21.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $100.59 during the week, down from $110.11 the week before and up 27.8 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa reported the largest increase in each of the key performance metrics: occupancy up 21.5 percent to 76.1 percent, ADR increased 42.1 percent to $158.38 and RevPAR improved 72.5 percent to $120.58, over 2019. Tampa has been one of the markets in Florida that have seen a performance lift associated with post-Hurricane Ian demand.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the first week of November, though year-over-year comparisons remained negative as expected due to the U.S. election, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, RevPAR and ADR, rose from the previous week. Occupancy rose to 62.6 percent for the week ending Nov. 9, up from 60.8 percent the prior week but down 3.5 percent year-over-year. ADR increased to $156.11 from $154.99, reflecting a 0.1 percent year-over-year decline. RevPAR grew to $97.73 from $94.22, showing a 3.5 percent decrease compared to the same week in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Las Vegas posted the largest year-over-year growth in each key performance metric: occupancy rose 6.8 percent to 85.4 percent, ADR increased 28.2 percent to $256.38 and RevPAR climbed 36.9 percent to $219.07.

U.S. HOTELS PERFORMANCE was down in the fourth week of December compared to the week before, according to STR. The market also saw lower performance in November compared to October, and performance during the month was also decreased when compared to 2019. Holiday shift affects week Occupancy was 43.9 percent for the week , down from 54.5 percent the week before and decreased 9.7 percent from 2019. ADR was $132.29 during the week, dropped from $135.08 the week before and up 2.3 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $58.04 during the week, decreased from $73.65 the week before and dropped 7.6 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets for the week, Houston reported the highest occupancy increase, up 3.4 percent to 43.1 percent, over 2019. Seattle posted the highest ADR lift, up 19.7 percent to $130.07, over 2019. Miami saw the steepest ADR, down 26.2 percent to $225.08 and RevPAR, dropped 42.4 percent to $138.19, declines from 2019.

U.S. HOTELS RECORDED decreased performance results in November, compared to the preceding month, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons indicated positive improvements. Occupancy decreased to 58.4 percent in November, compared to 65.8 percent in October, marking a 1.2 percent decline from the previous year. ADR decreased from $161.56 to $151.23, showing a 3.6 percent increase from 2022. RevPAR stood at $88.36, down from $106.38 in the previous month, reflecting a 2.4 percent rise from the preceding year. Among the top 25 markets, New York City achieved the highest occupancy at 84 percent, marking a 6.3 percent year-over-year increase. Markets with the lowest occupancy for the month were Minneapolis at 49.1 percent and St. Louis at 53.2 percent. Meanwhile, the top 25 markets exhibited superior occupancy and ADR compared to all others.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the first week of November compared to the week before as expected due to the Halloween calendar shift, according to STR. Performance also weakened when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 62.4 for the week ending Nov. 5, down from 65.8 percent the week before and dropped 9.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.48 during the week, decreased from $152.94 the week before and up 11.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $91.99 during the first week of November, down from $100.59 the week before and a slight increase of 1.1 percent from 2019. None of STR's top 25 markets showed an occupancy increase over 2019 during the week after Halloween. Tampa came closest to its pre-pandemic comparable, with an increase of 1 percent to 72.4 percent.

ALL THE PERFORMANCE metrics of U.S. hotels improved in the first week of November, according to STR. However, it remains below the performance reported two years ago. Occupancy was 59.8 percent for the week ending Nov. 6, up from 58.9 percent the week before and a 13 percent drop from the same period in 2019. ADR for the first week of the month was $128.14, up from $127.70 the week before and down 3.2 percent for the same period in 2019. RevPAR increased to $76.61 from $75.28 the week before. It was reduced by 15.8 percent when compared to the same period two years ago. During the week under review, none of STR's top 25 markets recorded an occupancy increase over 2019. Norfolk/Virginia Beach came closest to its 2019 comparable, down only 5.2 percent to 59.9 percent. The largest ADR increase was reported in Miami, up 13.6 percent to $205.56, when compared to two years ago.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE was down in the fourth week of November compared to the week before due to the Thanksgiving holiday, according to STR. However, hotel performance was mixed when compared to same period in 2019. Occupancy was 50.4 percent for the week ending Nov. 26, down from 63 percent the week before and decreased 0.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $135.49 during the week, down from $144.50 the week before and up 20.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $68.27 during the week, down from $91.02 the week before and up 19.9 percent from 2019. Minneapolis reported the largest occupancy increase among STR's top 25 markets, up 7.6 percent to 42 percent, over 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped in early November, though year-over-year comparisons remained positive, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, RevPAR and ADR, decreased from the previous week. Occupancy decreased to 60.8 percent for the week ending Nov. 2, down from 69 percent the prior week but up 1.9 percent year-over-year. ADR dropped to $154.99 from $168.69, marking a 1.2 percent year-over-year increase. RevPAR fell to $94.22 from $116.32 the previous week, showing a 3.1 percent gain over the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Tampa maintained the largest occupancy increase, up 34.7 percent to 80.5 percent, driven by ongoing displacement demand from Hurricane Milton. New Orleans recorded the highest gains in ADR, up 27.7 percent to $225.51, and in RevPAR, up 53.3 percent to $169.73, boosted by Taylor Swift's Eras Tour. Las Vegas saw the steepest RevPAR drop, down 28.8 percent to $151.47, followed by San Francisco, down 14.9 percent to $123.16.

THE VETERAN'S DAY calendar shift led to mixed year-over-year performance comparisons for the U.S. hotel industry in the second full week of November, according to CoStar. Tampa, Florida, saw the most improved performance among the top 25 markets. Occupancy rose to 63.3 percent for the week ending Nov. 16, up from 62.6 percent the prior week and a 1.5 percent year-over-year increase. ADR dropped to $154.96 from $156.11, reflecting a 1.1 percent year-over-year decline. RevPAR grew to $98.11 from $97.73, showing a 0.4 percent increase compared to the same week in 2023. Continued displacement demand from Hurricane Milton led to Tampa seeing the largest increases across each of the performance metrics, with occupancy rising 30.3 percent to 87.2 percent, ADR up 17.4 percent to $176.73 and RevPAR increasing 52.9 percent to $154.16.

CBRE HOTELS RECENTLY reduced U.S. hotel forecast as lodging demand dips amid soft leisure travel and slower corporate profit growth. The upcoming election in November and other economic factors led to the revisions. The research group now projects a 1.2 percent RevPAR increase for 2024, down from 2 percent in May. However, it expects a 2 percent RevPAR growth in the second half of 2024, up from 0.5 percent in the first half, driven by international tourism and election events. Lodging industry performance is closely linked to economic strength, with GDP growth generally correlating with RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement. The company forecasts 2.3 percent GDP growth and 3.2 percent average inflation for 2024. "We expect low single-digit RevPAR growth over the near-term as election-related events, growth in inbound international travel and an anticipated lower interest rate environment should support hotel demand," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Challenges including weakening consumer spending and increased competition from short-term rentals, cruise lines and other lodging alternatives pose downside risks."

U.S. HOTELS HIT a new Thanksgiving holiday performance record in the fourth week of November, according to STR. All performance metrics were up during the week when compared to same period in 2019. Occupancy was 53 percent for the week ending Nov. 27, down from 59.7 percent for the week before and an increase of 4.6 percent from the same Thanksgiving period two years ago. ADR for the week was $128.41, up from $126.66 the week before and increased 14.3 percent when compared to two years ago. RevPAR decreased to $68 for the week from $75.60 the week before but increased 19.6 percent for the same period in 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Dallas saw the largest occupancy increase during the fourth week, up 12.2 percent to 54.8 percent, over the same period two years ago. Phoenix reported the largest ADR increase when compared to 2019, up 35.1 percent to $143.30. Oahu Island experienced the steepest occupancy decline, down 25.3 percent to 58.5 percent over 2019.

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE exhibited mixed year-over-year comparisons in the third week of November, according to CoStar. Moreover, both occupancy and RevPAR declined compared to the previous week. Occupancy dropped to 62.4 percent for the week ending Nov. 18, down from the previous week's 64.8 percent, marking a year-over-year decrease of 0.6 percent. ADR saw a slight increase to $156.47, compared to the previous week's $156.01, demonstrating a significant 7 percent uptick from the previous year. Despite a decline to $97.61 in RevPAR compared to the previous week's $101.13, there was a noteworthy 6.3 percent rise from the corresponding period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Boston led with the largest year-over-year occupancy gain, surging by 11.0 percent to reach 77.2 percent.

THE THANKSGIVING CALENDAR shift boosted year-over-year performance comparisons for the U.S. hotel industry during the third week of November, according to CoStar. However, occupancy, RevPAR and ADR all declined from the prior week. Seattle led performance gains among the top 25 markets. Occupancy declined to 59.7 percent for the week ending Nov. 23, down from 63.3 percent the previous week but up 20.7 percent year-over-year. ADR fell to $150.49 from $154.96, marking an 8.6 percent year-over-year increase. RevPAR reached $89.80, down from $98.11 the prior week but up 31.1 percent compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle posted the highest year-over-year occupancy gain, up 62.9 percent to 76.7 percent. Chicago saw the largest increases in ADR, up 43.8 percent to $181.36, and RevPAR, which jumped 113.7 percent to $127.91.