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U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

ECONOMIC HEADWINDS AND geopolitical concerns are expected to affect U.S. hotel performance in 2024, according to PwC. The issues include continuing high interest rates and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Occupancy levels have consistently decreased over the past seven months compared to the same period in 2022. This downward trend is anticipated to persist for the remainder of this year and extend into at least the first quarter of 2024. However, PwC forecasts a 63 percent annual occupancy rate for US hotels this year. Hotels in the U.S. experienced a weakening in leisure demand during the latter part of this year, as global vacation destinations reopened, and leisure travelers regained confidence in traveling abroad, PwC said in its latest report titled U.S. Hospitality Directions: November 2023. Moreover, gains in individual and group business travel haven't completely counteracted this softening.

STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

IHG Hotels & Resorts' first-quarter 2024 RevPAR in the Americas declined by 0.3 percent year-over-year. This was driven by a 1.9 percent decrease in U.S. RevPAR, countered by an 11.3 percent increase in Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean combined. Occupancy dropped to 63.1 percent, down by 1.1 percentage points, while ADR in the Americas rose by 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, IHG's global RevPAR increased by 2.6 percent in the first quarter and the company opened 6,200 rooms (46 hotels) globally, marking an 11.1 percent year-over-year increase after adjusting for Iberostar, IHG said in a statement. "Global RevPAR in the first quarter of 2024 continued to grow, up 2.6 percent, reflecting the strength of our globally diverse footprint," said Elie Maalouf, IHG Hotels & Resorts' CEO. "There was an impressive performance in EMEAA, which was up nearly 9 percent. The Americas, having already recovered very strongly, was broadly flat due to some adverse calendar timing, and Greater China grew by 2.5 percent and will continue to benefit from returning international inbound travel this year. Global occupancy moved up to 62 percent and ADR increased by a further 2 percent as pricing remained robust, reflecting the complete return of leisure, business and group travel."

THE 2020 COVID-influenced lodging industry recession resulted in some noticeable changes to the way hotels provide F&B service. Social distancing regulations forced operators to be creative in the way they served food and beverages to guests. Rising wage rates and sharp increases in the cost of food and beverage products compelled hotel managers to find ways to control costs. The inability of hotels to attract employees to fill the positions eliminated during the recession required creative solutions to improve productivity and offer more with less. These factors resulted in the following hotel food and beverage trends during the subsequent recovery period: The increased offering of kiosks and grab-and-go venues The closing of traditional three-meal-a-day restaurants A reduction in the menus, number of seats, and hours of remaining F&B venues Reductions in in-room dining and mini-bar service The conversion of food and beverage space to other revenue generating purposes To learn how these recent changes in hotel food and beverage operations have impacted revenues and expenses, we have analyzed the operating statements of 2,500 U.S. full-service, resort, and convention hotels that participated in CBRE's annual Trends in the Hotel Industry in 2021 and 2022. In 2022, these 2,500 properties averaged 285 rooms in size, and achieved an occupancy of 64.7 percent, along with an ADR of $225.60. To provide more current information, we also relied on the monthly operating statements of 1,200 properties during the period January through June of 2023.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE exhibited mixed results in the first week of May compared to the prior week, according to CoStar. Among key metrics, occupancy declined, whereas both RevPAR and ADR saw an uptick. Occupancy dropped to 64.4 percent for the week ending May 4, down from the previous week's 65.7 percent, marking a 0.8 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR rose to $159.97 from $154.44, reflecting a 1.3 percent increase compared to last year. RevPAR climbed to $103.09, up from $101.42 the prior week, indicating a 0.5 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Seattle reported the highest year-over-year increase in occupancy, rising by 8.1 percent to 69.4 percent. Dallas recorded the largest increase in ADR, up 5.8 percent to $134.33.

HOTELS IN THE Americas performed above 2019 levels, although RevPAR is stabilizing amidst decreasing consumer travel spending, according to real estate firm JLL. This has affected resort markets heavily dependent on leisure travel. In contrast, urban travel demand is on the rise, driven by group, corporate, and inbound international travel. According to JLL's Global Real Estate Perspective for February 2024, global hotel RevPAR surpassed 2019 levels by 11.7 percent in the first 11 months of 2023. The global urban market strengthened with increased international travel and the return of business and group demand. London, New York, and Tokyo are expected to lead global RevPAR performance in 2024 as urban travel rebounds. Stabilization has weighed heaviest in resort markets, particularly in the Americas and EMEA, while Asia-Pacific continues to accelerate as intraregional travel grows following border reopenings, the report added. Foreign capital, absent since the onset of COVID, is expected to become more active over the next 12 months. Middle Eastern and Asian investors are likely to lead, with urban markets in Europe and select U.S. cities as primary recipients of capital.

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the second week of May compared to the previous week, with positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar. Key metrics such as occupancy, RevPAR, and ADR all increased week-over-week. Occupancy rose to 66.1 percent for the week ending May 11, up from 64.4 percent the previous week, representing a 2.1 percent year-over-year increase. ADR increased to $162.14 from $159.97, a 4.4 percent rise compared to last year. RevPAR reached $107.24, up from $103.09 the prior week, showing a 6.6 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year increases in each of the three key performance metrics: occupancy increased by 20.6 percent to 79.3 percent, ADR rose by 54.5 percent to $313.13, and RevPAR increased by 86.3 percent to $248.28. The market's performance was boosted by the RSA Conference.

U.S. HOTELS ARE likely to report improved RevPAR growth in the second half of the year, following a weak first quarter, according to CBRE. International tourism and other economic factors are expected to provide a boost to performance. A 2 percent increase in RevPAR growth is forecasted for 2024, down from the 3 percent estimated in February. RevPAR is now expected to grow by 3 percent for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel, and limited supply growth. It is projecting GDP growth of 2.3 percent and average inflation of 3.2 percent in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement.

U.S. HOTEL WEEKLY performance showed mixed results in the fourth week of May compared to the previous week but posted positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar. Despite a slight uptick in occupancy, both ADR and RevPAR decreased week-on-week across all key metrics. Occupancy rose to 67.7 percent for the week ending May 25, up from 67.4 percent the prior week, reflecting a 1.6 percent year-over-year increase. ADR decreased to $160.67 from $163.11, yet still representing a 2.3 percent surge compared to last year. RevPAR stood at $108.73, a decline from the previous week's $109.93, but marking a 3.9 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Houston experienced the most significant year-over-year boosts in occupancy, soaring 20.9 percent to reach 74.1 percent, while RevPAR surged by 29.2 percent to $89.15. Las Vegas recorded the sole double-digit increase in ADR, climbing by 10.9 percent to $217.53.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the third week of May compared to the previous week, with positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, RevPAR, and ADR, all saw week-over-week increases. Occupancy increased to 67.4 percent for the week ending May 18, up from 66.1 percent the previous week, marking a 0.2 percent year-over-year rise. ADR rose to $163.11 from $162.14, reflecting a 2.6 percent jump compared to last year. RevPAR reached $109.93, up from $107.24 the prior week, showing a 2.8 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Houston experienced the only double-digit occupancy increase, rising 10.5 percent to 67.9 percent. Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year increases in ADR, rising by 10 percent to $137.30, while RevPAR increased by 18 percent to $98.86.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

HYATT HOTELS CORP. reported strong early 2024 performance, with RevPAR and revenue growth, fueled by pipeline expansion driving its core hotel business and global franchise network. Systemwide RevPAR surged by 5.5 percent compared to 2023, while all-inclusive resorts net package RevPAR soared by 11 percent. Meanwhile, U.S. RevPAR increased by approximately 2 percent, excluding the Easter impact, indicating normalized growth. Net rooms grew by about 5.5 percent, with net income at $522 million and adjusted net income at $75 million, Hyatt said in a statement. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $252 million, dropping by 9 percent compared to Q1 2023, mainly due to the Super Bowl in Phoenix, increased real estate taxes, higher wages, and transaction costs from ongoing asset sales.