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THE U.S. IS expected to lift its requirement for pre-departure COVID testing by international travelers bound for the country. Travel industry organizations that have been lobbying for ending the test requirement welcomed the decision announced on Friday. Beginning Sunday, fully vaccinated travelers will no longer have to test negative before entering the U.S., according to media reports. After learning of the plan to lift the testing requirement, the U.S. Travel Association, which last month met with White House officials, along with Airlines for America, to make their case against the pre-departure testing said in a statement that the decision was expected to add 5.4 million visitors to U.S. and $9 billion in travel spending through remainder of 2022. "Today marks another huge step forward for the recovery of inbound air travel and the return of international travel to the U.S. The Biden administration is to be commended for this action, which will welcome back visitors from around the world and accelerate the recovery of the U.S. travel industry," said Roger Dow, USTA president and CEO. "International inbound travel is vitally important to businesses and workers across the country who have struggled to regain losses from this valuable sector. More than half of international travelers in a recent survey pointed to the pre-departure testing requirement as a major deterrent for inbound travel to the U.S."

INTERNATIONAL INBOUND TRAVEL is expected to slow down in the fall after surging over the summer, according to the latest U.S. Travel Association forecast. USTA also expects it may take until 2025 for the travel segment to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Inbound travel recovery picked up in summer and reached a pre-pandemic high of 35 percent below 2019 levels in July 2022, said U.S. Travel Association. It improved from a 41 percent decrease in May and declines of more than 50 percent earlier in 2022. The latest report by Aaron Szyf, economist, USTA, said that inbound travel recovery continued from Europe and Latin America in the past few months, which was 22 percent below 2019 levels in July. Meanwhile, Asian markets declined 66 percent in July, largely due to stagnation from China and a very slow return from Japan.

IN RECENT WEEKS, CBRE Hotels Research has revised its forecast for the hospitality industry upward in light of several factors, such as rising occupancy levels, improvement in domestic travel and some opening in international travel. Recent developments, however, including the rise of the Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19, elevates the uncertainty level of those forecasts, but still the industry is expected to return to 2019 levels by the second half of 2023 rather than 2024. Hotel occupancy in the third quarter rose 35.1 percent over the previous year, according to CBRE's December 2021 edition of Hotel Horizons. ADR also saw gains, reaching 2019 nominal levels in the third quarter. "CBRE expects ADR will continue to exceed 2019 levels, followed by a demand recovery in early 2023," CBRE said in a statement. "Pent-up demand for leisure destinations, an increase in household personal savings and fewer constraints on availability compared with earlier in the pandemic contributed to the brisk pace of ADR recovery. The resumption of inbound international travel will help gateway markets regain occupancy in the coming year."

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT may have expanded an immigrant visa program that can bring more workers to the U.S. to ease the labor shortage but processing those visas may still be delayed due to a pandemic-related backlog. A group of lawmakers recently wrote a letter to the Department of State urging the agency to bring that processing back to pre-COVID levels. The letter, sent by Reps. Darren Soto, a Florida Democrat, and Peter Meijer, a Michigan Republican, along with 86 other Congress members says visa processing has been slowed by procedures put in place at the beginning of the pandemic but which are no longer needed because testing and vaccines are so readily available. "[Pandemic restrictions] disrupt the reopening of American businesses. According to the U.S. Travel Association, international visitor spending in the U.S. dropped by 76 percent in 2020, leading to the loss of $141 billion and 1.1 million American jobs," the letter said. the letter said. "As international and domestic travel begin to recover, many travel businesses rely on H-2B and J1 visas to meet short-term and seasonal workforce demands that cannot otherwise be filled. With such a significant portion of U.S. visa processing sites fully or partially closed, travel businesses will not have the international visitors or the temporary workers they need to generate a speedy and robust recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic."

THE LEISURE AND hospitality sector saw some job growth in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' December employment report. Not enough, however, according to the U.S. Travel Association, meaning more federal aid is needed. The sector added 53,000 jobs during the month, according to the BLS data. The overall economy added 199,000 jobs. "Leisure and hospitality has added 2.6 million jobs in 2021, but employment in the industry is down by 1.2 million, or 7.2 percent, since February 2020," the report said. "Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 43,000 in December but is down by 653,000 since February 2020." However, the report indicates that the recovery is uneven, said Tori Emerson Barnes, USTA's executive vice president of public affairs and policy, in a statement. December's performance was the second-worst since January 2021, she said. "The small gains made are not enough to propel the sector toward a larger recovery, as more than 7 percent of all L&H jobs remain lost compared to just 2 percent for the rest of the U.S. economy," Barnes said. "As the spread of the omicron variant continues to impact travel, there remains a pressing need for Congress to provide additional federal relief and stabilizing policies that will enable the return of business travel, professional meetings and events, and international inbound travel."

THE U.S. TRAVEL Association is urging Congress to implement short-term priorities to stimulate leisure and hospitality sector as 61 percent or nearly two-thirds, of all jobs still lost due to the pandemic are in this segment. The revised job data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the past several months confirmed that 10 percent of leisure and hospitality jobs now remain lost. "While the overall jobs report may be good news for some, the revised BLS data now confirms an even bigger revelation," said Tori Emerson Barnes, USTA executive vice president of public affairs and policy, in a statement. "The uneven recovery of the travel sector is due in large part to the lack of inbound international travelers, and the deep reduction in business travel and professional meetings and events. There could not be a more pressing time to support this vital contributor to the U.S. economy and rebuild American jobs."

THE 2020 COVID-influenced lodging industry recession resulted in some noticeable changes to the way hotels provide F&B service. Social distancing regulations forced operators to be creative in the way they served food and beverages to guests. Rising wage rates and sharp increases in the cost of food and beverage products compelled hotel managers to find ways to control costs. The inability of hotels to attract employees to fill the positions eliminated during the recession required creative solutions to improve productivity and offer more with less. These factors resulted in the following hotel food and beverage trends during the subsequent recovery period: The increased offering of kiosks and grab-and-go venues The closing of traditional three-meal-a-day restaurants A reduction in the menus, number of seats, and hours of remaining F&B venues Reductions in in-room dining and mini-bar service The conversion of food and beverage space to other revenue generating purposes To learn how these recent changes in hotel food and beverage operations have impacted revenues and expenses, we have analyzed the operating statements of 2,500 U.S. full-service, resort, and convention hotels that participated in CBRE's annual Trends in the Hotel Industry in 2021 and 2022. In 2022, these 2,500 properties averaged 285 rooms in size, and achieved an occupancy of 64.7 percent, along with an ADR of $225.60. To provide more current information, we also relied on the monthly operating statements of 1,200 properties during the period January through June of 2023.

U.S. HOTEL DEMAND declined by 0.5 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2023, according to CBRE. Simultaneously, there was a matching 0.5 percent increase in supply. The combined effect of these factors led to a 1 percent decrease in occupancy. ADR increased by 0.6 percent during the quarter, marking the slowest improvement since the pandemic recovery began 10 quarters ago, the CBRE data revealed. RevPAR decreased by 0.3 percent, as a modest decline in occupancy was partially offset by the rise in ADR. Despite sustained consumer spending, hotel demand and pricing power in Q3 were hampered by competition from alternative lodging sources like short-term rentals and cruise lines, along with an uptick in outbound international travel. According to the report, hotel wage growth in September outpaced the national average of 4.3 percent, registering at 4.7 percent, but declined from 7 percent at year-end 2022. Average hourly hotel wages fell nearly $10 below the national average, suggesting ongoing pressure for wage increases.