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Australia's meteorological service says its climate models indicate that the El Niño ocean-warming phenomenon may return later this year, replacing the stubborn La Niña that has altered global weather patterns for the past two years. El Niño brings its own set of weather disruptions, typically including drought from Australia to Indonesia and potent winter storms to the western United States.

THE Peruvian highlands were hit hard by El Niño in 1982, and crops were destroyed. The same year, guerrilla attacks by the Shining Path movement erupted into a civil war that would last 20 years. Random coincidence? Possibly not.