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Australia's meteorological service says its climate models indicate that the El Niño ocean-warming phenomenon may return later this year, replacing the stubborn La Niña that has altered global weather patterns for the past two years. El Niño brings its own set of weather disruptions, typically including drought from Australia to Indonesia and potent winter storms to the western United States.

The large amount of rain that has fallen in October, has begun to worry farmers as the task of sowing maize and soya beans is becoming severely hampered. In addition, we will have to assess the impact on the development of wheat crops which are due to be harvested at the end early December. I fear could be affected similarly to the UK wheat crops that were so badly hit by the high summer rainfall and lack of sunshine in May/June.

THE Peruvian highlands were hit hard by El Niño in 1982, and crops were destroyed. The same year, guerrilla attacks by the Shining Path movement erupted into a civil war that would last 20 years. Random coincidence? Possibly not.