History Unfolding: July 1914, October 2023 - 0 views
historyunfolding.blogspot.com/...july-1914-october-2023.html
parallel historical analogy 1914 2023 Israel war wwi crisis
shared by Javier E on 16 Oct 23
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war has broken out on the borders of Israel, and I think that this could turn into a new world crisis and even a new world war. I shall explain why.
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in the current situation, in my view, Israel is playing the role of Austria-Hungary--an established power threatened by minorities and terrorist revolutionaries, which it is now determined to crush. The United States, I would suggest, is playing the role of Germany--the patron of a lesser power and longstanding ally--Israel now, Austria-Hungary then--which is unleashing a local war in response to a terrorist attack
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the United States government, like the German government in 1914, has other objectives besides the simple defense of Israel, which remains relatively secure.
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The war in Ukraine has emerged as the first armed conflict in a struggle between three twenty-first century great powers, the United States, Russia, and China--the Oceana, Eurasia and East Asia that Orwell predicted in 1984. While Russia is trying to destroy the post-1989 settlement that emerged in Europe after the USSR collapsed, the United States and the EU and an enlarged NATO are trying to maintain it.
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Germany in 1914 decided to back Austria to the hilt in its demands against Serbia because the German government wanted a trial of strength with France and Russia, whom they thought they could either humiliate diplomatically or defeat militarily. The men and women in charge of US foreign policy today clearly still believe that our will should prevail anywhere on the globe, and might not be averse to military action to make that point.
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The United States, to my horror, has been trying to improve its relations with Saudi Arabia, which would definitely make Washington a partner in an anti-Iranian alliance in the Middle East. There is even talk of Israel normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, which might draw it into such an alliance.
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If Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia decided to attack Iran, Russia--which has friendly relations with Iran now--might join in on Iran's side. It would be extremely difficult for the United States to maintain its generous support for Ukraine while also fighting such a conflict ourselves. And with the United States involved in two different conflicts already, Beijing might easily decide that the time to invade Taiwan had come. Suddenly we would be in the midst of a third world war.
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In this kind of environment, the greatest powers regard any defeat by one of their allies as a potentially disastrous shift in the balance of power. That is why the United States is doing so much to support Ukraine, and it is one reason that President Biden immediately announced the strongest possible support for Israel, including conventional military support even though Israel is not facing a conventional war.
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The Arab-Israeli tragedy continues. Four generations of Palestinians have now grown up under occupation, each one at least as hostile to Israel as the last. 75 years of conflict, combined with demographic changes, have made Israel a very different country than it was before 1967. Despite its repeated failure to impose its will on the Palestinians, the Israeli government is now the verge of its most destructive effort to do so yet in Gaza. It speaks of destroying Hamas, and Netanyahu has even advised Gazans to flee--but there are about two million of them living in the most densely populated political entity on earth, and they have nowhere to flee to.
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A great power makes a mistake, in my opinion, when it ties its destiny to that of a smaller power in the midst of an endless war. The real responsibility of great powers is to keep in mind the ultimate objective of any war--"which is to bring about peace," as Clausewitz said. That is what Germany could and should have done in 1914, and what several American presidents tried to do in the Middle East. It does not seem to be our policy now.