The stark contrast between the job market and the election, and why it matters - The Wa... - 0 views
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economy job market election US relationship
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I believe I can say, without partisan challenge, that what’s going on in the Republican presidential campaign is an embarrassment to the United States.
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The underlying trend of job gains is over 200,000 per month, a strong enough clip to nudge the jobless rate even lower than its current eight-year low of 4.9 percent.
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At 2.2 percent, average hourly wage growth is beating (very low) inflation, meaning paychecks have more buying power.
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The underemployment rate, at 9.7 percent, remains elevated by 6 million part-time workers who would rather be full-timers but still can’t find the work.
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the underemployment rate needs to fall another point before you can call the job market really tight
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Since the Great Recession, the rate fell from around 83 percent down to around 81 percent or so. Over the six-plus years of economic expansion, the best you could say is “at least it didn’t fall further.”
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As you can see in the recent data, the better job market is giving people a reason to come back in and see what they can find.
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It matters a great deal who they appoint in positions that directly affect fiscal policy. They appoint governors to the Federal Reserve. They set trade policy and deal with international competitors.
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Unless the next president is smart and persuasive enough to get Congress to apply countercyclical policy to the next downturn, whatever gains folks have seen may be short-lived.
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Many in the electorate are mad about the inequality embedded in the economy in a way that means they’ve only recently seen some gains (and that’s an average result — there are places that are still facing depressed conditions).
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People are justifiably angry about an economy in which reckless finance brought us the recession, got bailed out and recovered way before the rest of us.