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Can the Democrats avoid a brokered convention in 2020? - CNN - 0 views

  • Will 2020 see the return of the brokered national political convention -- that is, a convention where delegates are unable to agree on a nominee during the first round of voting, making it necessary to "broker" delegates between candidates in subsequent rounds to arrive at a nominee?
  • It's hard to ignore the potential for a first-round deadlock at the Democratic National Committee (DNC) convention next July. While it's true that every four years political pundits warn of the potential for brokered convention, and it hasn't happened in over half a century, the combination of a historically large field of candidates, no clear front-runner, a heavily front-loaded primary schedule and a change in Democratic party rules means that 2020 could be the year the prediction finally comes true.
  • One of the reasons they are likely to stay in the race is that former Vice President Joe Biden, long the front-runner, now looks weaker than he did. For months now, Biden's national poll average has remained stuck at around 30%. Democratic primary math, by which only candidates receiving at least 15% of the vote are awarded delegates, means the percentage of delegates earned will exceed the percentage of primary votes for the top candidates. Still, it will be a stretch for Biden, or any other candidate, to go from just below 30% in the polls to the 51% of delegates required to secure the nomination.
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  • In the one-month period between the Iowa caucuses and Super Tuesday, about 40% of the total number of delegates voting in the first round of the Democratic National Convention will have been selected. In comparison, in 2016 only about a quarter of the delegates were distributed during that same period. A few weeks later, by the end of March, nearly 70% of the delegates will have been chosen.
  • Which brings us to the final element that makes a brokered convention more likely this year than in the past: the rules change that the Democratic party made to how voting will work at the 2020 convention
  • The 2008 and 2016 DNC conventions weren't "brokered," though, because Democrats since 1984 have allowed a large number of unpledged or uncommitted delegates to attend and vote at the national convention. These so-called "superdelegates" -- and there were more than 700 of them in Philadelphia in 2016 -- are not bound by voting outcomes in any of the states. In fact, this large number of uncommitted superdelegates has made it difficult for Democratic candidates to obtain a majority of committed convention delegates without them.
  • The influence of the superdelegates over the years has led to cries of unfairness from candidates who were not awarded the nomination. Both Hillary Clinton in 2008 and Bernie Sanders in 2016 could correctly argue that, had the superdelegates offered them support, they could have been the party's nominee.
  • The result was a change in the convention rules so that, in 2020, superdelegates will not participate in the first round of voting under this scenario. So it is up to Democratic primary and caucus participants to avoid a brokered convention.
  • A brokered convention in 2020 would set the stage for a repeat of that scenario. Already, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is saying that she will fight all the way to the convention. If Biden or Warren were to be handed the nomination by the superdelegates, and Gabbard were to win some delegates, might cries of "Bernie or Bust" on the convention floor be joined by "Tulsi or Trump"?
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Opinion | Don't Fill Ginsburg's Seat. Signed, the Republican Senators of 2016. - The Ne... - 0 views

  • This opinion piece was assembled using statements from Republican senators in 2016 as they were trying to prevent President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee from being confirmed. Senators argued the election was happening too soon (though it was almost eight months away) and that appointing a new justice would prevent Americans from having their say
  • Rarely does a Supreme Court vacancy occur in the final year of a presidential term.1 It makes the current presidential election all that more important, as not only are the next four years in play, but an entire generation of Americans will be impacted by the balance of the court and its rulings.2
  • The American people are presented with an exceedingly rare opportunity to decide, in a very real and concrete way, the direction the court will take.3
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  • For 80 years it has been the practice that the Senate has not confirmed any nomination made during an election year, and we shouldn’t make an exception now.8
  • Biden — and this is not something we’ve said very often — was absolutely correct.10 It’s a political cauldron to avoid.11 There should be no hearings. There should be no confirmation.12 Not during a presidential election year, with millions of votes having been cast in highly charged contests.13
  • This year is a tremendous opportunity for our country to have a sincere and honest debate about the role of the Supreme Court in our constitutional system of government.19
  • The Supreme Court seat doesn’t belong to any president or any political party.24
  • Our view is this: Give the people a voice.30
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Senate resolution to honor Ruth Bader Ginsburg blocked after partisan fighting over lan... - 0 views

  • The US Senate failed to agree on language for a resolution honoring the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a sign of how divided the chamber is over the Supreme Court vacancy.
  • "Republicans came to us with this resolution, but it ignored Justice Ginsburg's dying wish, what she called her most 'fervent wish' that she not be replaced until a new president is installed,"
  • Days before her death, Ginsburg dictated to her granddaughter that her "most fervent wish is that I will not be replaced until a new president is installed," NPR reported.
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  • "Specifically, the Democratic leader wants to add a statement that Justice Ginsburg's position should not be filled until a new president is installed, purportedly based on a comment Justice Ginsburg made to family members shortly before she passed,"
  • "All the kind words and the lamentations about Justice Ginsburg from the Republican majority will be totally empty if those Republicans ignore her dying wish and instead move to replace her with someone who will tear down everything she built," he added.
  • "Under the Constitution, members of the judiciary do not appoint their own successors."
  • Cruz asked that Schumer modify his request, and remove the language, and instead take up Cruz's resolution, which he said was modified to include quotes from Ginsburg saying she opposed increasing the number of justices on the court beyond the current nine.
  • . While the nation mourns Ginsburg's death, the Senate is gearing up for a high stakes political battle over the future of the Supreme Court, as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has vowed to bring President Donald Trump's nominee to a vote on the Senate floor. Trump said he will announce his nominee on Saturday.
  • "I believe that the President should next week nominee a successor to the court, and I think it is critical that the Senate takes up and confirms that successor before Election Day."
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Biden Seeks More Control Over USPS With New Appointments - The New York Times - 0 views

  • President Biden on Wednesday announced three nominees to fill vacant seats on the Postal Service’s board of governors, a move to increase Democratic influence on the future of the beleaguered agency.
  • If the nominees are confirmed by the Senate, Democrats and Democratic appointees would gain a majority on the nine-member board.
  • In his opening statement on Wednesday, Mr. DeJoy offered an apology for the service’s slow delivery times during the 2020 holiday season.“We must acknowledge that during this peak season, we fell far short of meeting our service targets,” he said. “Too many Americans were left waiting for weeks for important deliveries of mail and packages. This is unacceptable, and I apologize to those customers who felt the impact of our delays.”
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  • Mr. Biden’s announcement was his most direct action to date to address the service’s problems. The president’s nominees are Anton Hajjar, the former general counsel of the American Postal Workers Union; Amber McReynolds, the chief executive of the National Vote at Home Institute; and Ron Stroman, who resigned last year as deputy postmaster general and later served on Mr. Biden’s transition as the leader of the agency review team for the Postal Service.
  • The delays last year prompted a slew of lawsuits that forced the Postal Service to temporarily postpone the operational changes.
  • Representative Bill Pascrell Jr., Democrat of New Jersey, praised the president’s announcement on Wednesday, saying in a statement that it was an “important step, and I hope only the beginning.” But Mr. Pascrell added that Mr. Biden should remove the existing board members, whom he said had “been silent and complicit to the DeJoy sabotage.”
  • On Tuesday, the Postal Service chose Oshkosh Defense, a manufacturer of military vehicles, for a $482 million deal to provide the next generation of postal delivery trucks, over an electric-vehicle maker.
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Black Voters in Wisconsin Could Be Key to a Joe Biden Win | Time - 0 views

  • . It was designed to reignite Democratic activism in a city that is solidly blue but whose residents four years earlier were, at best, ambivalent about Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.
  • taking away a chance for Democrats to regain their organizing footing in Wisconsin and help build a political machine that could run up the score in a city every bit as great as its neighbor 90 minutes to the south, Chicago.
  • The battle for Wisconsin — a state Donald Trump won four years ago by fewer than 23,000 votes, or 1.7 percentage points — has clearly captured the attention of both national parties in 2020.
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  • Not since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 run had the state gone for the GOP nominee.
  • Republican Gov. Scott Walker, after all, had a lock on the state for years, and proved that the GOP could prevail there with the right mix of muscle, moxie and money.
  • His message to white, working-class voters plainly resonated. Clinton, notably, never visited the state as the nominee. Black voters’ enthusiasm for the Democratic nominee sank through the basement.
  • “But Wisconsin!” was only second to “But her emails!” in the annoying outbursts political reporters have been using as shorthand for the last four years.
  • Heading into 2020, Democrats knew they needed to offset the Republican suburban counties northwest of Milwaukee, but not by much. Trump in 2016 underperformed Mitt Romney’s numbers in those suburbs by 7 percentage points.
  • Biden appears on better footing than Clinton — in no small part due to his running mate Kamala Harris whose historic run is expected to energize Black voters.
  • Clinton at this point four years ago was up 6.5 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics polling averages. Biden is up 6.4 percentage points in the same meta-analysis. A Washington Post/ ABC News poll released yesterday suggested Biden’s lead to be an actual 17 percentage points.
  • Very, very few political pros believe this to be the case, citing the fact no other polls show it to be that much of a runaway for the former VP. The most plausible reason Republicans aren’t despondent about Wisconsin comes down to who is expected to show up: While Democrats have almost doubled their early voting numbers from 2016, Republicans are up four-fold.
  • That year, they had a three-point increase in their support of Obama over 2008. But, according to one study, Black voter participation in Wisconsin fell 20 percent between 2012 and 2016.
  • In August, police responding to reports of a domestic incident shot Jacob Blake, a Black man, in the back four times, leaving him paralyzed. Deep unrest followed in Kenosha, about 45 minutes south of Milwaukee. Protestors took to the streets, demanding justice for Blake.
  • Both Trump and Biden visited the state after the shooting, giving Black voters a clear view of what their choices were come November. Trump stood with the police, who say they were responding to a call about someone with an outstanding arrest warrant and, they say, had a knife. Biden called for compassion and police reform.
  • “Everybody says your vote is your voice, so I feel like if you don’t vote, you are comfortable being silenced.”
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Trump's anger at courts, frayed alliances could upend approach to judicial issues - The... - 0 views

  • Under the Trump administration, the GOP-controlled Senate confirmed 174 district court judges, 54 circuit court judges and three Supreme Court justices — shifting the balance of the highest court to a 6-3 conservative majority. During his campaign rallies and events, Trump often likes to highlight the total, though he has exaggerated it.
  • In a 2022 interview with The Washington Post, McConnell recalled that Trump’s first candidacy had worried many conservatives at the time but that his Supreme Court list and picks had calmed their nerves and that his bargain with Trump had moved the country “right of center.”
  • McConnell and Trump have not spoken since late 2020, and Trump has repeatedly called for McConnell to be removed as the GOP leader of the Senate.
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  • Trump and Leo, a prominent conservative lawyer influential in his first term, have not spoken since 2020, according to people familiar with the matter. Their relationship ended over a heated fight in 2020 at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump accused Leo of picking Rod J. Rosenstein to be deputy attorney general, a person familiar with the matter said. Trump’s anger around Rosenstein centered on his decision to appoint special counsel Robert S. Mueller III to oversee the Justice Department’s probe of Russian interference in the 2016 election
  • Trump has signaled that he wants the Justice Department to go after his political opponents, and his associates have drafted plans to invoke the Insurrection Act on his first day in office, which would allow him to send the military against civil demonstrations. Near the end of his time in the White House, he repeatedly complained that his White House Counsel’s Office wasn’t doing enough to help him overturn the election results. His attorney general resigned after he would not back up his claims.
  • “He’s the leading candidate, so I don’t know that it matters what I think,” said Brent O. Hatch, a lawyer who is on the board of the Federalist Society.
  • Although Trump reshaped the Supreme Court while in office, leading to the overturning of Roe, he has sometimes told others that the decision is a political albatross for Republicans. And he has complained recently at rallies about the Supreme Court and the decisions the judges make, saying without evidence they rule too often against Republicans to show “independence.”
  • Trump is running on a campaign focused, at least in part, on vengeance and retribution. The former president has made it clear that loyalty would be a key criteria in how he makes decisions if returned to office.
  • Most members of the Federalist Society board of directors declined to comment on the record or did not respond to a request for comment. Interviews with a dozen other prominent lawyers suggested most had serious misgivings about Trump returning to power but were resigned to the high likelihood he will be the nominee, and many expressed openness to working for another Trump administration.
  • There is a heated debate underway in conservative legal circles about how GOP lawyers should interact with what increasingly appears to be the likely nominee, according to conservative lawyers who described the private talks on the condition of anonymity. The discussions include whether they would return to work for Trump.
  • One prominent lawyer described a November dinner he attended where almost all the attorneys in the room said they would prefer another nominee — but were split on whether to back Trump if he wins
  • Leo, McConnell and McGahn have expressed reservations about what another Trump term would look like, though they have largely stayed away from a public fight.
  • Some of the informal conversations and debates underway in conservative legal circles about a second Trump term include Project 2025, a coalition of right-wing groups that has outlined plans for the next Republican administration. Clark, who is working on the Insurrection Act for Project 2025, has been charged with violating Georgia’s anti-racketeering law, in the case alleging Trump and co-conspirators of interfering in the 2020 election. Clark pleaded guilty.
  • The involvement of Clark with that effort has alarmed some other conservative lawyers who view him as a potentially disastrous choice to take a senior leadership role at the department because of his past activities around the 2020 election.
  • Rob Kelner, a prominent conservative lawyer, said more conservative lawyers should have spoken up against Trump, but that it would cost them business and relationships.
  • “There were so many positions he took and so many statements that he made that flatly contradicted the foundational principles of the conservative movement and the Federalist Society, and yet it was so rare to hear conservative lawyers speak out against Trump,” Kelner said.
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The Right's Jennifer Rubin Problem: A Case Study in Info Disadvantage - Conor Friedersd... - 0 views

  • For the conservative rank-and-file, this should be instructive. If I'd have told them three years ago that during the 2012 election cycle, they could have a staffer at the Washington Post who would invariably write favorably and sympathetically about the Republican nominee, they'd have celebrated. As it turned out, there were some unintended consequences that they suffered -- a dearth of fair-minded coverage during the primaries, a nominee marginally more prone to believing his own bullshit every time it was echoed back to him in the Washington Post, a rank-and-file given information so unreliable that they could no longer assess reality... and for what? A perch at a center-left newspaper doesn't help conservatives persuade anyone of anything if the person holding it is widely perceived as a disingenuous mouthpiece for her favored candidate. What happens is that conservatives themselves are increasingly the only ones who are misled.
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Why Won't Hillary Clinton Defend Trade Deals? - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • crimped construct leaves no room for the very different perspective of someone like architect Charles Kelley in Portland, Oregon
  • “Portland,” Kelley said, “has become responsible for setting the frame for how China will look at urbanism for the next 50 years.”
  • consult with cities around the world to develop sustainable communities through everything from promoting renewable energy to opening bike lanes.
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  • “Now … I can’t imagine what the region would be like if we didn’t have the level of trade we have [today].”
  • Donald Trump insists that trade and immigration are undermining wages and devouring jobs
  • has also refused to defend the North American Free Trade Agreement that her husband Bill Clinton signed—an agreement Trump routinely calls “the single worst trade deal ever approved in this country.”
  • But her resistance to expanded trade reflects outdated assumptions about the Democratic coalition
  • Clinton may rely even more than previous Democratic nominees on these pro-trade groups
  • Democratic partisans are now much more likely than Republicans to view globalization and trade as a positive force on all those fronts
  • the movement of blue-collar whites largely skeptical of trade into the GOP, and their replacement in the Democratic coalition by minorities,
  • international trade specifically as beneficial for the U.S. economy, consumers and their own living standards,
  • voters from all parties worry that trade can eliminate domestic jobs.
  • NAFTA has likely saved many U.S. jobs that might otherwise have migrated elsewhere
  • “If you are able to produce parts of your finished product in Mexico and lower your cost, you can increase your share of the market,”
  • creates an undeniable need for fresh thinking on how to connect those displaced workers with the economy’s new opportunities.
  • her conditional early support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership that President Obama negotiated with 11 Asian nations, but has also refused to defend the North American Free Trade Agreement that her husband Bill Clinton signed—an agreement Trump routinely calls “the single worst trade deal ever approved in this country.”
  • Kelley works with about a dozen cities across six countries, with a special concentration in Asia. “Portland,” Kelley said, “has become responsible for setting the frame for how China will look at urbanism for the next 50 years.”
  • Threatening tariffs and walls, Donald Trump insists that trade and immigration are undermining wages and devouring jobs (while also presenting migration from Mexico and the Middle East as a security threat). Clinton has defended immigration, but effectively surrendered to Trump on trade.
  • “We Build Green Cities,” a loose consortium of Portland-based engineering, architectural, and environmental science firms that consult with cities around the world to develop sustainable communities through everything from promoting renewable energy to opening bike lanes.
  • While Trump has never appeared more confident than when he’s denouncing TPP or NAFTA, Clinton has been tongue-tied.
  • Clinton’s suspicion of trade isn’t just a tactical maneuver: Veterans of the Bill Clinton administration say that internally she was always dubious about pursuing NAFTA. But her resistance to expanded trade reflects outdated assumptions about the Democratic coalition.
  • But the latest Chicago Council survey, released last month, shows that Democratic partisans are now much more likely than Republicans to view globalization and trade as a positive force on all those fronts. (Over two-thirds of Democrats now say trade benefits both the overall U.S. economy and their own living standards.)
  • With Trump centering his campaign on mobilizing working-class whites, Clinton may rely even more than previous Democratic nominees on these pro-trade groups—even as she further sublimates their views.
  • The reason: It’s encouraged an integrated North American supply chain that allows American firms to produce autos and other products at less cost overall by shifting some manufacturing to Mexico.
  • Wood acknowledges that U.S. manufacturing workers who lose jobs in this exchange often are not equipped to compete for the new positions that the integration process creates. That creates an undeniable need for fresh thinking on how to connect those displaced workers with the economy’s new opportunities.
  • If she wins, she’ll eventually need to acknowledge the same about economic globalization
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Trump nominees map out plans for tax cuts, trade and Carrier-style negotiations - 0 views

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    President-elect Donald Trump's nascent administration on Wednesday began outlining the contours of its strategy for jump-starting the nation's economy, including how it would overhaul the tax code, rethink trade agreements and directly negotiate with major corporations.
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Website Goes Down At Office Of Government Ethics Amid Political Storm : NPR - 0 views

  • Website Goes Down At Office Of Government Ethics Amid Political Storm
  • The website at the Office of Government Ethics went down Friday afternoon, apparently overwhelmed with traffic, as the agency and its director found themselves at the heart of a growing political fight.
  • The office's director, Walter Shaub Jr., has been conducting an unusually public discussion about ethics with the president-elect and the people he has chosen for his Cabinet.
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  • Although the office didn't respond to a question about why the tweet was sent out when it was, it came a day after Trump tweeted praise of a business and encouraged people to shop there. Thank you to Linda Bean of L.L.Bean for your great support and courage. People will support you even more now. Buy L.L.Bean. @LBPerfectMaine— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 12, 2017
  • Shaub — a political appointee of President Obama in his fourth of a five-year term and a career civil servant — described Trump's announced plans to turn over management of his businesses to his sons as "meaningless" as it relates to conflicts of interest.
  • Over the weekend, Senate Democrats released a letter Shaub sent raising alarms about nominees who hadn't completed their ethics reviews being scheduled for confirmation hearings.
  • The ethics agency director ended the letter, "For as long as I remain Director, OGE's staff and agency ethics officials will not succumb to pressure to cut corners and ignore conflicts of interest."
  • Conflict-of-interest laws that apply to executive branch employees don't apply to the president. Trump has made it clear he believes he is going above and beyond what is required by law, but Shaub and others have been quite critical of those steps, saying they are insufficient.
  • "The Oversight Committee has not held one hearing, conducted one interview, or obtained one document about President-elect Donald Trump's massive global entanglements," Cummings said in a statement,
  • This also comes after House Republicans pushed to reduce the influence of the independent Office of Congressional Ethics
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No matter how many Republicans denounce Trump, the racism charge sticks - The Washingto... - 0 views

  • Since the 1960s, Republicans have had to battle against liberal elites’ accusations that the GOP is exclusionary, anti-immigrant, uninterested in the fate of minorities and downright racist because the party rejected top-down welfare state programs, opposed race-based quotas and did not have a lot of national nonwhite leaders. That changed somewhat under President George W. Bush, who championed education and immigration reform. He got 44 percent of the Hispanic vote and 43 percent of the Asian vote in 2004.
  • In the last election, Governor Romney received just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote. Other minority communities, including Asian and Pacific Islander Americans, also view the Party as unwelcoming. President Bush got 44 percent of the Asian vote in 2004; our presidential nominee received only 26 percent in 2012. . . .
  • Although a bevy of nonwhite and/or female Republican leaders have stepped up in recent years (e.g., Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio), Republicans undid whatever progress they might have made with nonwhite voters when the House killed immigration reform and the party then nominated Donald Trump, who figuratively built his campaign on his wall, rounding up and expelling 11 million or 12 million people and banning Muslim immigration. His recent remarks about Judge Gonzalo Curiel are simply icing on the cake for Democrats, who have long claimed Republicans simply don’t like minorities.
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  • Republicans may protest and condemn Trump’s comments all they like, but for every denunciation, a Republican surrogate offers up some contorted defense. And Republicans keep Trump as their nominee. Trump’s racist and misogynistic rhetoric makes him toxic to women and minorities, and it risks tarring the party for years.
  • Even more stunning: “What a large majority of Republicans do agree on, however, is that Donald Trump’s comments weren’t racist. Only 22% of Republicans say that the comments were racist. In comparison 81% of Democrats and 44% of independents say that the comments were racist. ” (Emphasis added.) Viewed from the vantage point of skeptical minorities, the conclusion here is likely to be that Trump is a racist and a majority of Republicans (who won’t acknowledge the “textbook case of racism”) are nearly as bad.
  • In short, a bad rap (Republicans’ opposition to the liberal agenda makes them racists) has been turned into an accurate, deadly analysis. (Too many Republicans harbor bigoted views of minorities and/or do not recognize racism when it’s in front of them.) Not all Republicans can be labeled as such, but far too many
  • The solution only comes with repudiation of Trump, success of diverse candidates and an empathetic agenda that demonstrates Republicans care about all Americans, not just rich, white males.
  • It is that problem that now hangs over the GOP. It’s why the GOP is likely to lose the presidential race and perhaps one or more houses of Congress. It is why many will conclude it is better to scrap the party and start anew. Ironically, they may have to kill off the party of Lincoln to save the spirit of Lincoln.
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The Final Stage of Republican Grief - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • The donors, for their part, are also starting to come around. “If Trump is the nominee, I think there would be a sufficient appetite to end the last eight years of the leftward direction and overregulated economy that the majority of donors will support him,” the veteran fundraiser Fred Malek told the Washington Post. Stan Hubbard, a billionaire from Minnesota, concurred, telling Politico, “I would kind of hold my nose doing it, but I would have to do it.”
  • For Trump to become acceptable to the party regulars, he will have to show he can act the part. “He’s got to do a number of things,” said Scott Reed, the chief political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “He’s got to build a national campaign. He’s got to unite the party. He’s got to run a convention. He’s got to go up against the Clintons.” But the first three items on that list were things he could be taught or helped with
  • Trump, Reed believes, will grow into the role once the nomination is in his grasp. “It’s a big responsibility, and I think he will recognize that,” he said. “He’s going to recognize that being the nominee of the Republican Party is bigger than Donald Trump. I think he’s going to mature.” He added, “That’s not based on anything factual. I just think he’ll come to that conclusion.
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Visualizing a Trump Presidency-and the Grim Reality of American Politics - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • American politics have careened out of control, lurching from a role model of sensible policy making and civil discourse to gridlock over even modest proposals with bipartisan buy-in, and to a presidential campaign with the kind of angry populist bluster, coarse language and sectarian division formerly associated with Peron-style banana republics.
  • On the policy front, the Republican Congress has made the unprecedented decision to portray a president with almost a year left in his term as not simply a “lame duck” but utterly bereft of any legitimacy to carry out the responsibilities of his office
  • On the campaign front, the emergence of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as the leaders of the Republican presidential pack—one a demagogic populist outsider who has never served in public office and had no role in the party, the other an extreme right-wing ideologue whose twin calling cards are engineering a government shutdown and going on the Senate floor and calling his own leader a liar—turned conventional presidential politics on its head, leaving a Republican political establishment reeling and a broader group of concerned Americans frightened about the future.
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  • Trump’s monumental ego would be blown up even more by a presidential victory, and his modus operandi in business and the nominating process—telling his subordinates to act with no questions asked, using bluster and intimidation to force others to bend to his will—would be reinforced.
  • whatever the circumstances, if Trump does capture the Republican nomination and there is no significant third party or independent effort, he has a chance, however remote it looks now, to win. With America’s tribal politics, any nominee probably starts with a floor of 45 percent of the votes. What if there is serious economic turbulence or a Paris-style attack in the fall? Could enough voters in key states like Ohio and Michigan go to the strong man? It’s possible.
  • Donald Trump’s emergence as the GOP frontrunner and likely nominee creates an existential crisis for the Republican Party, as the angry populism exploited and incited by Republican leaders in Congress to regain majority control turns inward to consume its host. The potential outcomes are bad for the party and its adherents—but even worse for the rest of America.
  • Many mainstream Republicans have comforted themselves by noting that Trump has no strong or fixed ideology, and as a lifelong dealmaker, is used to some give-and-take. Maybe they are right. But given that he has no understanding of policy or how policy is made, no ties at all to veterans of politics and government, and disdain for all those who have been inside and made those terrible deals, it would be a long, long time before he would or could recognize the reality of governing in a democracy.
  • If Republicans in Congress can’t help themselves from giving a collective middle finger to the outgoing president, how will they treat a new Democratic president? If Hillary Clinton wins—after the vast majority of Republicans in Congress endorse their presidential candidate by demonizing the alternative, and given the long history of contentiousness between the Clintons and Republicans in Congress—is there any way it can be better?
  • The near-term future of politics and policy in America is a pretty grim one. Intimidated by the nihilist, nativist pressure from talk radio hosts and bloggers, Republican leaders in Congress are not all that likely to ignore their desires.
  • A Trump loss—which he would surely blame on the enemy within—would not mean the demise of a Trump movement or the angry populism behind it, and the driving need by Republicans to recapture their party’s mojo in the midterm would probably have them fall back on the populist approach that worked in 2010 and 2014. So brace yourselves for a rocky road ahead, not just in 2016 but in 2017 and beyond. 
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Polarizing HHS nominee nears confirmation vote in the Senate - 0 views

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    The Senate was preparing to vote Thursday night on the confirmation of Tom Price, a Republican congressman from Georgia and one of the House's staunchest critics of the Affordable Care Act, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Price's history of personal investments and legislative behavior has prompted ethics objections from Democratic senators.
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Trump to Announce Supreme Court Pick in Prime Time Ceremony - 0 views

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    WASHINGTON - President Trump is poised on Tuesday to announce his nominee to the Supreme Court, a decision certain to touch off a bruising ideological clash that could shape his presidency and have sweeping consequences for American law. Mr. Trump is scheduled to reveal his choice during an evening ceremony in the White House East Room.
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BBC News - Romney 2016: The 'definition of insanity'? - 0 views

  • Romney 2016: The 'definition of insanity'?
  • Kentucky Senator Rand Paul probably captured the sentiment of most of Mr Romney's potential presidential adversaries when he said the prospect of the 2012 Republican nominee running again and expecting a different result is the "definition of insanity".
  • "I think he's had his chance, and I think it's time for some fresh blood,"
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  • "Interviews with more than two dozen Republican activists, elected officials and contributors around the country reveal little appetite for another Romney candidacy,"
  • "Beyond his enthusiasts - a formidable constituency given that many are donors - opinions range from indifference to open hostility."
  • "If Mitt Romney is the answer, what is the question?"
  • one that doesn't come immediately to mind is who would be the best Republican presidential nominee in 2016."
  • "Mr Romney is a man of admirable personal character, but his political profile is, well, protean,
  • "But I know lots of honourable, capable and decent people. I don't want them to run for president either."
  • He predicts Mr Romney's campaign won't gain traction, and the former governor will have to withdraw sometime between the first caucus in Iowa and New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary.
  • "If Romney runs now and finishes as an afterthought, it'll be one more sign that the whiz kid couldn't read the tea leaves placed before him despite 20 years of practice in electoral politics
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    Opinions of Romney running for President for a second time
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Mitt Romney isn't exactly ruling out his presidential nomination - The Washington Post - 0 views

  • the 2012 GOP nominee is nevertheless leaving the door open — just a crack — to the possibility of being drafted by his party at a contested convention in July.
  • don't think anyone in our party should say, 'Oh no, even if the people in the party wanted me to be the president, I would say no to it,'" Romney said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press."
  • If through the primary process Republican front-runner Donald Trump fails to collect the majority of delegates needed to secure the nomination, the result would be a contested convention.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • I can guarantee you this: One of the people running for president — one of the four — is going to be the Republican Party nominee," he added. "Three of the four are people I would endorse. But I'm not running, and I'm not going to be running."
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Hillary Clinton says early lead was 'artificial' - CNNPolitics.com - 0 views

  • "That is really artificial, all of those early soundings and polls," Clinton said. "Once you get into it, this is a Democratic election for our nominee and it gets really close, exciting. And it really depends upon on who can make the best case that you can be the nominee to beat whoever the Republicans put up and try to get your folks who support you to come out."
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Analysis: Too late to stop Trump? As he glides, other candidates fall back in debate - ... - 0 views

  • Analysis Too late to stop Trump? As he glides, other candidates fall back in debate
  • Donald Trump sailed above the other candidates, who mostly engaged in round-robin fighting that left each of them wounded and him largely unscathed.
  • the sixth in a nomination contest that has defied predictions, left a GOP establishment that fears disastrous repercussions from a Trump nomination no closer to finding a way to head him off, with the first balloting now a little more than two weeks away.
  • ...17 more annotations...
  • Trump repeatedly dismissed the nuanced arguments of his peers in favor of the blunt and forceful assertions that have made the billionaire the party’s national front-runner.
  • "I will gladly accept the mantle of anger," he made clear that he understands what many of his establishment foes still seem not to — that much of what they see as weaknesses in his campaign are the wellsprings of its support
  • His opponents, by contrast, often acting with visible desperation to attract attention as voters start making up their minds, seemed mostly intent on fighting among themselves. That precluded any single candidate from rising above the others.
  • Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, tied with Trump in first-voting Iowa,
  • He was himself pummeled by other candidates who want to replace him as Trump’s main nemesis.
  • Rubio offered an upbeat new-generation pitch as the centerpiece of his campaign
  • In the course of the conflict, he and Cruz emptied their opposition research files onto each other
  • New York and loved New Yorkers. And I have to tell you, that was a very insulting statement that Ted made."
  • Republicans typically pick as their nominee the person who placed second the last time out, but this race has been nothing the party has seen before.
  • Instead, it is Trump who has controlled the race.
  • The survey also showed a dramatic shift in Trump’s direction on another important measure.
  • In March, 23% of GOP primary voters said they could see supporting him. Now it's 65%.
  • "I recognize that Donald is dismayed that his poll numbers are falling in Iowa," Cruz said, "but the facts and the law here are really quite clear."
  • Trump responded by citing a contrary view by Cruz’s former Harvard professor and jocularly suggested he was concerned lest there be complications if he picked Cruz as his vice presidential nominee.
  • Trump when he defended an assessment days ago that Trump represented "New York values.
  • "Edward Snowden is a traitor. And if I am president and we get our hands on him, he is standing trial for treason," Rubio said
  • “Radical Islamic terrorism was not invented 24 months ago,” he said, citing precursors to the Islamic State.
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