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zoegainer

The December Numbers Were Awful, but the Economy Has a Clear Path to Health - The New York Times - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...s-report-economy-analysis.html

economy health US economics pandemic

shared by zoegainer on 14 Jan 21 - No Cached
  • It is fair to say that the loss of 140,000 jobs in December indicates a backsliding of the economic recovery that took place in the summer and fall.
  • The December numbers point to a jobs crisis that is contained to sectors dealing with the direct effects of pandemic-related shutdowns. Unlike the data from the spring of 2020, the latest numbers are not consistent with the sort of broad-based absence of demand in the economy that caused the recovery from the last few recessions to be so long and so slow.
  • If enough Americans are vaccinated, they will probably feel comfortable in returning to normal patterns of leisure activity
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • Other sectors less directly affected by public health concerns — industries that were at recessionary levels just a few months ago — kept improving. They are not necessarily back to pre-pandemic levels, but on track to get there before much longer.
  • The list of sectors fitting that basic pattern — still at levels consistent with a recession but clawing their way back steadily — is long,
  • But as corporate executives make their capital spending plans and as consumers make their spending decisions, surging stocks do tend to have a positive effect. That would imply that the positive effects of new market highs over recent weeks should start to show up as public health concerns recede.
  • The December employment numbers cover a period before Congress reached a compromise pandemic aid package worth $900 billion. Among other things, the bill includes enhanced unemployment benefits that will help the hundreds of thousands of workers whose jobs disappeared in December, as well as $600 checks that should strengthen consumer spending in the months ahead
  • Moreover, the Democratic victories in Georgia this week and the resulting Senate majority make it more likely that those checks will grow to $2,000 per person
anniina03

Federal Budget Deficit Swelled to Nearly $1 Trillion in 2019 - The New York Times - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...us-federal-budget-deficit.html

us trump crisis economics politics

shared by anniina03 on 26 Oct 19 - No Cached
  • The United States federal budget deficit jumped 26 percent in the 2019 fiscal year to $984 billion, reaching its highest level in seven years as the government was forced to borrow more money to pay for President Trump’s tax and spending policies, official figures showed on Friday.
  • The deficit has now swelled nearly 50 percent since Mr. Trump took office and it is projected to top $1 trillion in 2020. It did not hit $1 trillion in fiscal 2019, which ended Sept. 30, but that was largely the result of Mr. Trump’s tariffs on trading partners like China, which brought in more than $70 billion in revenue.
  • The grim fiscal scorecard shows how far the Republican Party, under Mr. Trump, has strayed from conservative orthodoxy, which long prioritized less spending and lower deficits.
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • The United States entered its longest expansion on record in July and the jobless rate is at a 50-year low, yet the deficit has continued to widen.
  • The deficit is growing in large part because tax receipts are falling, as Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax cuts continue to siphon revenue from the Treasury. The numbers reflect the fact that Mr. Trump’s most significant legislative achievement is not paying for itself, as Republicans have said it would.
  • “The biggest factor was the tax cuts, which gave a short-term sugar high but now are just contributing to a larger deficit,”
  • Fears of trillion-dollar deficits could renew the desire of Republicans in Congress to propose cuts to social programs, like food stamps, Social Security and other safety net benefits. Republicans have long pointed to swelling deficits as a reason to pursue their long-held vision of smaller government, including undoing many of the programs ushered in during the New Deal and Great Society to help the most disadvantaged Americans.
  • Senator Mike Enzi, a retiring Republican from Wyoming who leads the budget committee, called the country’s fiscal path unsustainable and said spending must come down.
  • Republicans, who have shut down the government in their quest to cut spending, have enabled the increases that are exacerbating the deficit.
  • With the deficit growing, it remains unclear how Mr. Trump and the Democrats will address the issue during the election. Democratic candidates such as Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have introduced broad expansions of social safety net programs and have proposed paying for them with big tax increases on the rich.
  • On Friday, before the deficit figures were released, Mr. Trump remained focused on recent increases in the stock market and the low jobless rate. “The economy is booming,” he said.
Javier E

America's billionaires take center stage in national politics, colliding with populist Democrats - The Washington Post - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...liding-with-populist-democrats

rich wealth billionaire tax inequality

shared by Javier E on 10 Nov 19 - No Cached
  • The political and economic power wielded by the approximately 750 wealthiest people in America has become a sudden flash point in the 2020 presidential election
  • The populist onslaught has ensnared Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, led to billionaire hand-wringing on cable news, and sparked a panicked discussion among wealthy Americans and their financial advisers about how to prepare for a White House controlled by populist Democrats.
  • With the stock market at an all-time high, the debate about wealth accumulation and inequality has become a top issue in the 2020 campaign
  • ...14 more annotations...
  • “For the first time ever, we are having a national political conversation about billionaires in American life. And that is because many people are noticing the vast differences in wealth and opportunity,
  • Financial disparities between the rich and everyone else have widened over the past several decades in America, with inequality returning to levels not seen since the 1920s, as the richest 400 Americans now control more wealth than the bottom 60 percent of the wealth distribution
  • The poorest 60 percent of America has seen its share of the national wealth fall from 5.7 percent in 1987 to 2.1 percent in 2014, Zucman found.
  • At least 16 billionaires have in recent months spoken out against what they regard as the danger posed by the populist Democrats, particularly over their proposals to enact a “wealth tax” on vast fortunes, with many expressing concern they will blow the election to Trump by veering too far left.
  • Steyer has proposed his own wealth tax, but Schultz ripped the idea as “ridiculous,” while Bloomberg suggested it was not constitutional and raised the prospect of America turning into Venezuela.
  • Zuckerberg suggested Sanders’s call to abolish billionaires could hurt philanthropies and scientific research by giving the government too much decision-making power. Microsoft co-founder Gates criticized Warren’s wealth tax and mused about its impact on “the incentive system” for making money.
  • David Rubenstein, the billionaire co-founder of the Carlyle Group, told CNBC that a wealth tax would not “solve all of our society’s problems” and raised questions about its practicality. Also appearing on CNBC, billionaire investor Leon Cooperman choked up while discussing the impact a wealth tax could have on his family.
  • America has long had rich people, but economists say the current scale of inequality may be without precedent. The number of billionaires in America swelled to 749 in 2018, a nearly 5 percent jump, and they now hold close to $4 trillion collectively.
  • “The hyper concentration of wealth within the top 0.1 percent is a mortal threat to the American economy and way of life,” Boyle said in an interview. “If you work hard and play by the rules, then you should be able to get ahead. But the recent and unprecedented shift of resources to billionaires threatens this. A wealth tax on billionaires is fair and, indeed, necessary.”
  • “A lot of people in the Wall Street crowd still think the world is top-down,” Wylde said. “They think the people at the top of the pecking order are still making the decisions or driving the debate, as opposed to the new reality of grass-roots mobilization. They don’t realize the way pushback to their criticism goes viral.”
  • Lance Drucker, president and CEO of Drucker Wealth Management, said he has recently heard alarm from many of his millionaire clients over plans like Warren’s to implement a wealth tax on fortunes worth more than $50 million.
  • “Honestly, it’s only been the last month when people started getting worried,” said Drucker in an October interview. “These tax proposals are scaring the bejeezus out of people who have accumulated a lot of wealth.”
  • Some financial planners are urging wealthy clients to transfer millions to their offspring now, before Democrats again raise estate taxes. Attorneys have begun looking at whether a divorce could help the super-rich avoid the wealth tax. And some wealthy people are asking whether they should consider renouncing their U.S. citizenship and moving to Europe or elsewhere abroad ahead of Democrats’ potential tax hikes.
  • he has heard discussions about leaving the country and renouncing citizenship or other legal tax planning moves due to Democrats’ tax plans from several multimillionaires. “As the frustration mounts and tax burdens rise, people will consider it, just the way you have New Yorkers moving to Florida.
Javier E

The Young Left Is a Third Party - The Atlantic - 0 views

www.theatlantic.com/...603232

politics culture progressive young leftist age generation Generation Z

shared by Javier E on 10 Dec 19 - No Cached
  • Americans 55 and up account for less than one-third of the population, but they own two-thirds of the nation’s wealth, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s the highest level of elderly wealth concentration on record. The reason is simple: To an unprecedented degree, older Americans own the most valuable real estate and investment portfolios. They’ve captured more than 80 percent of stock-market growth since the end of the Great Recession.
  • under the age of 40, for their part, are historically well educated, historically peaceful, and historically law-abiding
  • “In the U.S, as in the U.K. and in much of Europe, 2008 was the end of the end of history,” says Keir Milburn, the author of Generation Left, a book on young left-wing movements. “The last decade in the U.K. has been the worst decade for wage growth for 220 years. In the U.S., this generation is the first in a century that expects to have lower lifetime earnings than their parents. It has created an epochal shift.”
  • ...21 more annotations...
  • Young Americans demanding more power, control, and justice have veered sharply to the left. This lurch was first evident in the two elections of Barack Obama, when he won the youth vote by huge margins
  • Obama won about 60 percent of voters younger than 30 in the 2008 primary. Bernie Sanders won more than 70 percent of under-30 voters in the 2016 primary, which pushed Hillary Clinton to the left and dragged issues like Medicare for All and free college from the fringe to the mainstream of political debate.
  • Joe Biden polled at 2 percent among voters under 30, within the margin of error of zero. Nationally, he is in single digits among Millennials, the generation born between 1981 and 1996. Yet Biden is the Democratic front-runner for the 2020 presidential nomination, thanks to his huge advantage among old voters and black voters, who are considerably more moderate than younger Democrats.
  • Bernie Sanders, by contrast, leads all candidates among voters under 30 and polls just 5 percent among voters over 65
  • age divides young leftists from both Republicans and Democrats. Democrats under 30 have almost no measurable interest in the party’s front-runner. Democrats over 65 have almost no measurable interest in the favored candidate of the younger generation.
  • age—perhaps even more than class or race—is now the most important fault line within the Democratic Party. 2c 2c 2c 2c 2c 2c 2c 2c 2c
  • It might be most useful to think about 2cyoung progressives as a third party trapped in a two-party system.
  • they are a powerful movement politically domiciled within a larger coalition of moderate older minorities and educated suburbanites, who don’t always know what to do with their rambunctious bunkmates.
  • this progressive third party’s platform look like?
  • justice: Social justice, sought through a reappraisal of power relationships in social and corporate life, and economic justice, sought through the redistribution of income from the rich to the less fortunate.
  • This group’s support for Medicare for All, free college, and student-debt relief is sometimes likened to a “give me free stuff” movement.
  • every movement wants free stuff, if by free stuff one means “stuff given preferential treatment in the tax code.” By this definition, Medicare is free stuff, and investment income is free stuff, and suburban home values propped up by the mortgage-interest deduction are free stuff. The free stuff in the tax code today benefits Americans with income and wealth—a population that is disproportionately old.
  • Medicare for All might be politically infeasible, but it is, taken literally, a request that the federal government extend to the entire population the insurance benefits now exclusively reserved for the elderly. That’s not hatred or resentment; it sounds more like justice.
  • across ethnicities, many Americans have a deep aversion to anything that can be characterized as “political correctness” or “socialism.”
  • this might be the biggest challenge for the young progressive agenda
  • While Medicare for All often polls well, its public support is exquisitely sensitive to framing. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, the net favorability of eliminating private insurance or requiring most Americans to pay more in taxes—both part of the Sanders plan—is negative-23 points.
  • The young left’s deep skepticism toward capitalism simply isn’t shared by previous generations.
  • Gen X is firmly pro-capitalist and Baby Boomers, who came of age during the Cold War, prefer capitalism over socialism by a two-to-one margin.
  • Social Security and Medicare are, essentially, socialism for the old, but that’s not the same as converting them into Berniecrats.)
  • “This is only the halfway point of an epochal change in Western politics following the Great Recession,” Keir Milburn says. The far right has responded with calls for xenophobic nationalism to preserve national identity, while the left has responded with calls for social democracy to restore socioeconomic justice
  • the far right is ascendant, but they have no answer to the future because they’ve given up on the future. The young left has identified that the future of adulthood no longer feels viable to many people, and it’s putting together a different vision.”
Javier E

Opinion | Who Killed the Knapp Family? - The New York Times - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...deaths-despair-poverty.html

American dream despair working class culture crisis jobs responsibility welfare state drugs

shared by Javier E on 12 Jan 20 - No Cached
  • there is a cancer gnawing at the nation that predates Trump and is larger than him.
  • Suicides are at their highest rate since World War II; one child in seven is living with a parent suffering from substance abuse; a baby is born every 15 minutes after prenatal exposure to opioids; America is slipping as a great power.
  • We have deep structural problems that have been a half century in the making, under both political parties, and that are often transmitted from generation to generation.
  • ...42 more annotations...
  • Deaton and the economist Anne Case, who is also his wife, coined the term “deaths of despair” to describe the surge of mortality from alcohol, drugs and suicide.
  • “The meaningfulness of the working-class life seems to have evaporated,” Angus Deaton, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, told us. “The economy just seems to have stopped delivering for these people.”
  • Only in America has life expectancy now fallen three years in a row, for the first time in a century, because of “deaths of despair.”
  • “I’m a capitalist, and even I think capitalism is broken,” says Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund.
  • The suffering was invisible to affluent Americans, but the consequences are now evident to all: The survivors mostly voted for Trump, some in hopes that he would rescue them
  • The stock market is near record highs, but working-class Americans (often defined as those without college degrees) continue to struggle. If you’re only a high school graduate, or worse, a dropout, work no longer pays.
  • If the federal minimum wage in 1968 had kept up with inflation and productivity, it would now be $22 an hour. Instead, it’s $7.25.
  • we would return to the Kristof family farm in Yamhill and see a humanitarian crisis unfolding in a community we loved — and a similar unraveling was happening in towns across the country. This was not one town’s problem, but a crisis in the American system.
  • Even in this presidential campaign, the unraveling of working-class communities receives little attention. There is talk about the middle class, but very little about the working class
  • One consequence is that the bottom end of America’s labor force is not very productive, in ways that reduce our country’s competitiveness
  • we discuss college access but not the one in seven children who don’t graduate from high school.
  • “We have to stop being obsessed over impeachment and start actually digging in and solving the problems that got Donald Trump elected in the first place,”
  • We have to treat America’s cancer.
  • the situation is worsening, because families have imploded under the pressure of drug and alcohol abuse, and children are growing up in desperate circumstances
  • In the 1970s and ’80s it was common to hear derogatory suggestions that the forces ripping apart African-American communities were rooted in “black culture.” The idea was that “deadbeat dads,” self-destructive drug abuse and family breakdown were the fundamental causes, and that all people needed to do was show “personal responsibility.
  • A Harvard sociologist, William Julius Wilson, countered that the true underlying problem was lost jobs, and he turned out to be right. When good jobs left white towns like Yamhill a couple of decades later because of globalization and automation, the same pathologies unfolded there.
  • Men in particular felt the loss not only of income but also of dignity that accompanied a good job. Lonely and troubled, they self-medicated with alcohol or drugs, and they accumulated criminal records that left them less employable and less marriageable.
  • Family structure collapsed.
  • The problems are also rooted in disastrous policy choices over 50 years
  • The United States wrested power from labor and gave it to business, and it suppressed wages and cut taxes rather than invest in human capital, as our peer countries did.
  • The kids on the No. 6 bus rode into a cataclysm as working-class communities disintegrated across America because of lost jobs, broken families, gloom — and failed policies.
  • Americans also bought into a misconceived “personal responsibility” narrative that blamed people for being poor.
  • It’s true, of course, that personal responsibility matters: People we spoke to often acknowledged engaging in self-destructive behaviors.
  • But when you can predict wretched outcomes based on the ZIP code where a child is born, the problem is not bad choices the infant is making.
  • If we’re going to obsess about personal responsibility, let’s also have a conversation about social responsibility.
  • Why did deaths of despair claim Farlan, Zealan, Nathan, Rogena and so many others?
  • First, well-paying jobs disappeared
  • Second, there was an explosion of drugs
  • Third, the war on drugs sent fathers and mothers to jail, shattering families.
  • Both political parties embraced mass incarceration and the war on drugs, which was particularly devastating for black Americans, and ignored an education system that often consigned the poor — especially children of color — to failing schools
  • Since 1988, American schools have become increasingly segregated by race, and kids in poor districts perform on average four grade levels behind those in rich districts.
  • Yet it’s not hopeless. America is polarized with ferocious arguments about social issues, but we should be able to agree on what doesn’t work: neglect and underinvestment in children. Here’s what does work.
  • ob training and retraining give people dignity as well as an economic lifeline. Such jobs programs are common in other countries.
  • For instance, autoworkers were laid off during the 2008-9 economic crisis both in Detroit and across the Canadian border in nearby Windsor, Ontario. As the scholar Victor Tan Chen has showed, the two countries responded differently
  • The United States focused on money, providing extended unemployment benefits. Canada emphasized job retraining, rapidly steering workers into new jobs in fields like health care, and Canadian workers also did not have to worry about losing health insurance.
  • The focus on job placement meant that Canadian workers were ushered more quickly back into workaday society and thus today seem less entangled in drugs and family breakdown.
  • Another successful strategy is investing not just in prisons but also in human capital to keep people out of prisons.
  • We attended a thrilling graduation in Tulsa, Okla., for 17 women completing an impressive local drug treatment program called Women in Recovery.
  • The graduates had an average of 15 years of addiction each, and all were on probation after committing crimes. Yet they had quit drugs and started jobs
  • Women in Recovery has a recidivism rate after three years of only 4 percent, and consequently has saved Oklahoma $70 million in prison spending,
  • Bravo for philanthropy, but the United States would never build interstate highways through volunteers and donations, and we can’t build a national preschool program or a national drug recovery program with private money.
  • For individuals trying to break an addiction, a first step is to face up to the problem — and that’s what America should do as well
Javier E

G.D.P. Doesn't Measure Happiness - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...-doesnt-measure-happiness.html

US economic performance measure GDP happiness goal national education history

shared by Javier E on 09 Oct 11 - No Cached
  • “happiness is, in the end, a much more complicated concept than income. Yet it is also a laudable and much more ambitious policy objective.”
  • it’s a challenge to set criteria for measuring happiness. However, in a conversation, she told me she did not see it as an insurmountable one: “It doesn’t have to be perfect; after all, it took us decades to agree upon what to include in G.D.P. and it is still far from a perfect metric.”
  • there remains the issue of being No. 1. Many of us have lived our lives in a country that has thought itself the world’s most powerful and successful. But with the United States economy in a frustrating stall as China rises, it seems that period is coming to an end. We are suffering a national identity crisis, and politicians are competing with one another to win favor by assuring a return to old familiar ways.
  • ...17 more annotations...
  • When Newsweek ranked the “world’s best countries” based on measures of health, education and politics, the United States ranked 11th. In the 2011 Quality of Life Index by Nation Ranking, the United States was 31st. Similarly, in recent rankings of the world’s most livable cities, the Economist Intelligence Unit has the top American entry at No. 29, Mercer’s Quality of Living Survey has the first United States entry at No. 31 and Monocle magazine showed only 3 United States cities in the top 25.
  • On each of these lists, the top performers were heavily concentrated in Northern Europe, Australia and Canada with strong showings in East Asian countries from Japan to Singapore. It is no accident that there is a heavy overlap between the top performing countries and those that also outperform the United States in terms of educational performance
  • Nearly all the world’s quality-of-life leaders are also countries that spend more on infrastructure than the United States does. In addition, almost all are more environmentally conscious and offer more comprehensive social safety nets and national health care to their citizens.
  • providing the basics to ensure a high quality of life is not a formula for excess or the kind of economic calamities befalling parts of Europe today. For example, many of the countries that top quality-of-life lists, like Sweden, Luxembourg, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway, all rank high in lists of fiscally responsible nations — well ahead of the United States, which ranks 28th on the Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index.
  • at the same time, countries that could hardly hope to outperform the world in any category are far ahead of us when it comes to things that matter more to people
  • some of the metrics we rate as most important, like G.D.P., stock indices or trade data, are so deeply flawed as to be irrelevant or worse, dangerous distractions
  • As a country we have consistently relied on indicators that keep us focused on the interests of business, financial institutions or the defense industry whereas equity, quality of life and even social mobility metrics are played down.
  • in the midst of the Great Depression, Congress, showing a great deal more intellectual curiosity than it does today, commissioned a group of economists led by a future Nobel Prize winner named Simon Kuznets to better measure economic activity.
  • Not only were they aware that the statistic they devised ignored many types of economic activity — from the work of housewives to illegal enterprises — they also knew their number did not assess the social benefits of what they were tracking.
  • Kuznets warned of this: “The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income” like the one they created. That hasn’t stopped us from making this misleading number perhaps the most influential statistic in the world.
  • Americans use G.D.P. in discussions about how well we are doing. It’s at the heart of discussions of whether we are in a recession or not, ahead or falling behind.
  • Yet, when China “passes” us, it will remain for the most part a very poor country racked with social problems.
  • A country, for example, that overemphasizes G.D.P. growth and market performance is likely to focus policies on the big drivers of those — corporations and financial institutions — even when, as during the recent past, there has been little correlation between the performance of big businesses or elites and that of most people.
  • Even John Locke, who famously enumerated our fundamental rights as being to life, liberty and property, qualified this by asserting that people should appropriate only what they could use, leaving “enough and as good” for others.
  • Thomas Jefferson later consciously replaced the right to property with a right to “the pursuit of happiness.” And happiness has become the watchword for those seeking different measures that might better guide governments.
  • maturing societies can offer many benefits to their citizens that are unavailable to most in the rapidly growing world — the products of rich educational and cultural resources, capable institutions, stability and prosperity.
  • We, as a developed nation, are unlikely to grow at the rapid pace of emerging powers (the United States is currently ranked 127th in real G.D.P. growth rate)
yehbru

Senate Democrats push for $2,000 stimulus checks as clock winds down on 116th Congress - CNNPolitics - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

US Politics Trump House Senate Stimulus Checks Democrats Sanders Congress

shared by yehbru on 03 Jan 21 - No Cached
  • Senate Democrats and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont pushed, without success, for a Senate vote on $2,000 stimulus checks Friday as the clock winds down on the 116th Congress.
  • Senate Republicans, who have largely argued that increasing stimulus checks to $2,000 would not be the kind of "targeted relief" necessary to respond to the economic distress caused by the pandemic, despite the fact that President Donald Trump has called for that amount.
  • "The Senate can start off this new year by adding to that sense of hope by sending $2,000 checks to struggling American families."
  • ...6 more annotations...
  • The legislation's approval in the House came after Trump signed a sweeping coronavirus relief bill into law Sunday evening. That measure, which was negotiated on a bipartisan basis, provides for $600 in direct payments, but after a deal was brokered and passed out of Congress
  • "This proposal is a shot-gun approach," the South Dakota Republican said, adding, "If you really want to help people who need this the most at a time when we are running a $26 trillion debt borrowing every penny that we're making available to do this, we ought to sit down and figure out the most efficient, effective, targeted way possible. This absolutely does not do that."
  • Sanders this time tried to convince Republicans not to object by also calling for a vote on McConnell's alternative bill, which would combine increased direct payments with a repeal of the online liability protections known as Section 230 and the establishment of a commission to study voter fraud, for which there has been no evidence.
  • Hawley reminded senators that Trump backs $2,000 checks, expressing frustration it hasn't come up for a vote. "The President of the United States said that's the level he supported ... this is the number he has asked for .. and yet we can't even seem to get a vote on it."
  • "A mother in Virginia wrote: $2,000 means I can afford to feed my three kids. Now maybe we should give her a long lecture on macroeconomics and how well the stock market is doing,"
  • "These are working people. ... and all that they ask for, as I have said many times on this floor before, is a chance to get back up on their feet and be able to provide for their families, and I can't for the life of me understand why we cannot get so much as a vote on these bills," Hawley said.
aidenborst

Opinion: What Biden's top economic priority must be - CNN - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

Politics US trump history crisis Culture policy pandemic economics gop Biden pandemic-recovery covid-19 future-policy

shared by aidenborst on 04 Jan 21 - No Cached
  • When President-elect Joe Biden assumes office in January, he will face economic challenges that are arguably greater than any president has dealt with since Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
  • Since January, nearly one in seven Americans have lost full-time work. Permanent job losses have erased almost seven years of gains, and the nature of today's unemployment exposes some of our most vulnerable citizens to the worst economic hardships. All of this comes against the backdrop of a rapidly surging Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Moreover, the end of the pandemic could unleash strong economic growth from pent up demand. And the news about vaccine development provides more certainty about the end date of the pandemic.
  • ...16 more annotations...
  • There are no obvious financial bubbles, and given the stock market expansion, consumers and investors appear confident about the long run.
  • The scope of tax losses could mean layoffs of teachers, firefighters and police across much of the nation.
  • The next round of Covid relief must accomplish two things. First, it must extend the supplemental pandemic unemployment insurance that has sustained more than 10 million families since March.
  • Failure to replace state and local government tax losses will have damaging effects, deepening the downturn and potentially adding years to a full recovery.
  • In fact, since January, approximately 1 million local government employees have already lost their jobs. But it also means significant reductions in public services next year.
  • Many investments could also reduce costs for local governments with more energy efficient buildings and lower transportation costs.
  • The House passed a version of pandemic relief with a $2.2 trillion estimated cost in the spring.
  • While GOP resistance to this size of relief has been characterized as a bailout to poorly run states, that rhetoric is simply wrong.
  • the economic distress facing states is caused by the fallout of Covid, not fiscal mismanagement.
  • But we face the pandemic with the government we have, not the government we wished we had. So, a new relief bill should provide a good working example of compromise for the next administration
  • Most large American cities face significant congestion problems, and few roads have the necessary technology to accommodate smart vehicles.
  • The Biden infrastructure plan calls for $2 trillion of spending. This is more than earlier transit plans, but not out of range of all federal infrastructure spending over a typical five to seven year spending plan.
  • Still, the short-term economic damage from the pandemic will likely persist for several more years. And the long-term damage, particularly to children and young adults, may last for decades. Because of this, Covid-19 relief should be the first economic policy priority of the Biden administration.
  • We still have rapidly rising health care spending, a counterproductive trade war that weakened US manufacturing and comprehensive immigration reform to contend with. We need longer term paths to constructive compromise.
  • Over the past few decades, the United States has moved away from federalism, where state and local government take a more active role in determining their own best course of action on many of our most divisive issues. This weakens our ability to craft compromises.
  • President-elect Biden faces an historically weakened economy and strengthening pandemic. He also steps into office in an age of deep political distrust. As he fights the economic fallout of Covid, he has a rare chance to resurrect the mechanisms of compromise that have served the United States well for 244 years.
dytonka

Higher taxes could be around the corner. How the wealthy might prepare - 0 views

www.cnbc.com/...the-wealthy-might-prepare.html

shared by dytonka on 03 Nov 20 - No Cached
  • However, if former vice president Joe Biden wins the White House, and if the Democrats win both houses of Congress, tax rates may rise across a range of income sources for wealthier Americans.
    • dytonka
      dytonka on 03 Nov 20
       
      It should be emphasized that this is for the top 1%, people that make over 400k annually.
  • The conversion would have been ideal earlier this year after the 30% drop in the stock market, but it still may make sense.
  • Biden has proposed raising the top long-term capital gains rate to 39.6% from the current 20% for taxpayers with more than $1 million in income.
anonymous

If President Trump loses in 2020, it won't be because of Joe Biden - The Washington Post - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...0-it-wont-be-because-joe-biden

history politics trump US gop

shared by anonymous on 22 May 20 - No Cached
  • Only three incumbent presidents who have been elected in their own right — Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush — have lost their reelection bids in the past 90 years and history shows that they weren’t defeated because their opponents ran stellar campaigns, even if they went on to be influential presidents themselves.
  • Jimmy Carter encountered similar problems and like his fellow engineer Hoover, did not handle them well.
  • When Hoover was elected in 1928, he was one of the most respected figures in the entire country.
  • ...11 more annotations...
  • Unfortunately for Hoover, the stock market crashed a mere seven months into his presidency and while it was certainly not his fault, he didn’t take aggressive action to rescue the economy as the Great Depression got underway.
  • Eerily reminiscent of President Trump’s declarations that the pandemic was over just as it was beginning, Hoover repeatedly declared that prosperity was around the corner, showing himself to be out of touch with his desperate constituents.
  • Roosevelt espoused contradictory themes, on one hand calling for bigger government and on another attacking Hoover for failing to balance the budget.
  • Even his own advisers were left perplexed as to his governing policy. But it didn’t matter in the end, with 25 percent of the country out of work and little hope on the horizon, Roosevelt won easily in a landslide.
  • Rather external events and incumbent missteps turned the campaigns into referendums on the man in the office. The challenger needed to do relatively little to take advantage of what circumstance provided.
  • Carter addressed the country via national television in July 1979 to talk not about these bread-and-butter concerns, but rather what he saw as the nation’s dangerous loss of faith in its major institutions.
  • To some it seemed that he was blaming the American people for the nation’s difficulties and what became known as the “malaise” speech backfired on the former Georgia governor.
  • George H.W. Bush’s defeat in 1992 seemed far less likely than Hoover’s or Carter’s as his presidency got off to a roaring start. The end of the Cold War in 1989 along with the triumph in the 1991 Persian Gulf War produced record approval ratings for Bush.
  • Things only got worse for Carter when Iranian radicals seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran a few months later in November, taking 52 Americans hostage.
  • The crisis, along with a failed attempt to rescue the hostages, made Carter seem like a weak and ineffectual leader.While Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980 is often remembered as an inevitable step in the country’s turn to the right, polls remained close as the candidates’ first and only debate approached a week before the election.
  • None of this means that covid-19 spells Trump’s defeat for sure in the fall. It just means that Biden’s chances to win will likely be determined by forces beyond his control rather than by how much he’s able to get out on the trail. And It is a reminder that in electoral politics, chance and circumstance often matter more than strategy or political skill.
katherineharron

GOP operatives worry Trump will lose both the presidency and Senate majority - CNNPolitics - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

shared by katherineharron on 29 May 20 - No Cached
  • A little more than three months ago, as Democrats cast their ballots in the Nevada caucuses, Republicans felt confident about their chances in 2020. The coronavirus seemed a distant, far-off threat. Democrats appeared poised to nominate a self-described socialist for president. The stock market was near a record high. The economy was roaring. President Donald Trump looked well-positioned to win a second term, and perhaps pull enough incumbent Republicans along with him to hold the party's majority in the Senate.
  • Seven GOP operatives not directly associated with the President's reelection campaign told CNN that Trump's response to the pandemic and the subsequent economic fallout have significantly damaged his bid for a second term
  • Several say that public polls showing Trump trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden mirror what they are finding in their own private polls, and that the trend is bleeding into key Senate races. The GOP already had a difficult task of defending 23 Senate seats in 2020.
  • ...15 more annotations...
  • All of this demonstrates how difficult it is to run as a Republican incumbent almost anywhere in 2020. Strategists who spoke to CNN worry that Trump has become a liability for Republicans needing to expand their coalition beyond the President's core base of supporters.
  • "Republican candidates need something more like Romney in '12 and less like McCain in '08," said Liam Donovan, a GOP strategist in Washington.
  • That one-two punch could knock the GOP out of power in Washington-- and it's what has strategists hoping the President's reelection team can successfully transform the race to a choice between Trump and an unpalatable Biden.
  • "This is the one thing he (Trump) cannot change the subject on," said a Republican strategist. "This is not a political opponent, this is not going way and he has never had to deal with something like this."
  • Trump overall has a 45% approval rating. While only 42% approve of how he's handled the pandemic, 50% still said they approve of Trump's handling of the economy.
  • "The economic message resonates strongly, particularly in a time like this," said Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh. "President Trump is clearly the one to restore us to that position. He did it once, he will do it again."
  • "Absent some sort of V-shaped recovery many people think he is dead in the water," said the Republican strategist.
  • Trump has solidified his position within the party. That has made it harder for Republicans in Congress to distance themselves from him without antagonizing his base. That, say Republican operatives, risks keeping away voters who may consider the GOP but don't like the President.
  • "It's a very, very tough environment. If you have a college degree and you live in suburbia, you don't want to vote for us,
  • The task requires Senate candidates to make appeals to suburban voters who flipped to Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections as a reaction against Trump.
  • Scott Reed, the political director at the US Chamber of Commerce and a veteran of Republican campaigns, said that a presidential reelection campaign is "always" a referendum on the incumbent and his party.
  • Congress, he noted is, having a relative boom in popularity -- 31% support in the latest Gallup poll, the highest in over a decade -- thanks in part to the passage of economic relief.
  • The line aims to combat the most consistent line of criticism from Democrats -- that Collins has voted in line with the Trump administration on everything from judicial appointments to health care to the President's acquittal on impeachment -- without having to disavow Trump himself.
  • "The truth is despite being massively outspent by liberal dark money groups, Republicans are still well-positioned to hold the Senate majority in the fall," said Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
  • "When he does it right three days in a row, it really bumps his numbers," said Reed. "We need command performance on message discipline."
Javier E

America's Underlying Injustice Won't Just Disappear - The Bulwark - 1 views

thebulwark.com/51102-2

cooperation governing unification humility

shared by Javier E on 03 Jul 20 - No Cached
  • after inauguration day on January 20, 2021, the curtain will rise on the opening act of the hard and unglamorous business of governing again.
  • The media would have us believe there are only two cultures in America right now: Red and Blue. But in fact, our country comprises more cultures than any of us can possibly be aware o
  • Now we have to fix it. And a little humility won’t hurt that process a bit.
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • We must find the grace to welcome others into our big tent, including those with whom we have disagreed in the past, if we want to build the future.
  • Is this a call for appeasement or betraying our demands for justice, transparency, and accountability? No, it’s an awareness that ours are not the only passions out there
  • Which means both parties will have to own their part in contributing to forty years of declining economic mobility, an unconscionably racist prison-industrial complex, 1 in 5 children living in poverty, a stock market economy wholly unhooked from the workers who drive it, and so much corruption and money in politics that the percentage of Americans who support a given law has literally 0% bearing on whether that law will pass.
  • We cannot have reconciliation without truth.
  • We either start getting there together. Or we won’t get anywhere at all.
  • The Framers designed a government that barely works and only works at all when nobody gets everything they want. The reason they did that is because every other form of government is worse, and ends up as tyranny
  • If you’re not willing to be part of the flawed but ever-evolving, ever-disappointing solution, then you’re part of the problem. And if you’re part of the problem, nobody’s going to care about your stated ideals anyway.
Javier E

How Covid-19 Signals the End of the American Era - Rolling Stone - 0 views

www.rollingstone.com/...merican-era-wade-davis-1038206

decline us collapse American Century history crisis trump culture pandemic

shared by Javier E on 14 Aug 20 - No Cached
  • The COVID pandemic will be remembered as such a moment in history, a seminal event whose significance will unfold only in the wake of the crisis. It will mark this era much as the 1914 assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, the stock market crash of 1929, and the 1933 ascent of Adolf Hitler became fundamental benchmarks of the last century, all harbingers of greater and more consequential outcomes.
  • Unsettling as these transitions and circumstances will be, short of a complete economic collapse, none stands out as a turning point in history.
  • But what surely does is the absolutely devastating impact that the pandemic has had on the reputation and international standing of the United States of America.
  • ...22 more annotations...
  • At the height of the crisis, with more than 2,000 dying each day, Americans found themselves members of a failed state, ruled by a dysfunctional and incompetent government largely responsible for death rates that added a tragic coda to America’s claim to supremacy in the world.
  • For more than two centuries, reported the Irish Times, “the United States has stirred a very wide range of feelings in the rest of the world: love and hatred, fear and hope, envy and contempt, awe and anger. But there is one emotion that has never been directed towards the U.S. until now: pity.”
  • As American doctors and nurses eagerly awaited emergency airlifts of basic supplies from China, the hinge of history opened to the Asian century.
  • Since 2001, the U.S. has spent over $6 trillion on military operations and war, money that might have been invested in the infrastructure of home. China, meanwhile, built its nation, pouring more cement every three years than America did in the entire 20th century.
  • At the root of this transformation and decline lies an ever-widening chasm between Americans who have and those who have little or nothing
  • With slogans like “24/7” celebrating complete dedication to the workplace, men and women exhausted themselves in jobs that only reinforced their isolation from their families
  • The average American father spends less than 20 minutes a day in direct communication with his child. By the time a youth reaches 18, he or she will have spent fully two years watching television or staring at a laptop screen, contributing to an obesity epidemic that the Joint Chiefs have called a national security crisis.
  • Only half of Americans report having meaningful, face-to-face social interactions on a daily basis. The nation consumes two-thirds of the world’s production of antidepressant drugs. The collapse of the working-class family has been responsible in part for an opioid crisis that has displaced car accidents as the leading cause of death for Americans under 50.
  • More than any other country, the United States in the post-war era lionized the individual at the expense of community and family. It was the sociological equivalent of splitting the atom. What was gained in terms of mobility and personal freedom came at the expense of common purpose. In wide swaths of America, the family as an institution lost its grounding.
  • That social democracy will never take hold in the United States may well be true, but, if so, it is a stunning indictment, and just what Oscar Wilde had in mind when he quipped that the United States was the only country to go from barbarism to decadence without passing through civilization.
  • The vast majority of Americans — white, black, and brown — are two paychecks removed from bankruptcy. Though living in a nation that celebrates itself as the wealthiest in history, most Americans live on a high wire, with no safety net to brace a fall.
  • COVID-19 didn’t lay America low; it simply revealed what had long been forsaken. As the crisis unfolded, with another American dying every minute of every day, a country that once turned out fighter planes by the hour could not manage to produce the paper masks or cotton swabs essential for tracking the disease
  • s a number of countries moved expeditiously to contain the virus, the United States stumbled along in denial, as if willfully blind. With less than four percent of the global population, the U.S. soon accounted for more than a fifth of COVID deaths. The percentage of American victims of the disease who died was six times the global average.
  • The American cult of the individual denies not just community but the very idea of society. No one owes anything to anyone. All must be prepared to fight for everything: education, shelter, food, medical care.
  • What every prosperous and successful democracy deems to be fundamental rights — universal health care, equal access to quality public education, a social safety net for the weak, elderly, and infirmed — America dismisses as socialist indulgences, as if so many signs of weakness.
  • How can the rest of the world expect America to lead on global threats — climate change, the extinction crisis, pandemics — when the country no longer has a sense of benign purpose, or collective well-being, even within its own national community?
  • Asked what he thought of Western civilization, Mahatma Gandhi famously replied, “I think that would be a good idea.” Such a remark may seem cruel, but it accurately reflects the view of America today as seen from the perspective of any modern social democracy.
  • The measure of wealth in a civilized nation is not the currency accumulated by the lucky few, but rather the strength and resonance of social relations and the bonds of reciprocity that connect all people in common purpose.
  • American politicians dismiss the Scandinavian model as creeping socialism, communism lite, something that would never work in the United States. In truth, social democracies are successful precisely because they foment dynamic capitalist economies that just happen to benefit every tier of society.
  • But when all the old certainties are shown to be lies, when the promise of a good life for a working family is shattered as factories close and corporate leaders, growing wealthier by the day, ship jobs abroad, the social contract is irrevocably broken.
  • even should Trump be resoundingly defeated, it’s not at all clear that such a profoundly polarized nation will be able to find a way forward. For better or for worse, America has had its time.
  • The end of the American era and the passing of the torch to Asia is no occasion for celebration, no time to gloat.
Javier E

Covid testing is about saving lives. Trump thinks it's just about numbers. - The Washington Post - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...a-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html

testing trump numbers

shared by Javier E on 17 May 20 - No Cached
  • President Trump paused to muse about the pros and cons of testing people for the coronavirus. “The media likes to point out” that the United States has the most covid-19 cases in the world, he observed. “But we do, by far, the most testing. If we did very little testing, we wouldn’t have the most cases. So, in a way, by doing all of this testing, we make ourselves look bad.”
  • The United States does not do “the most testing,” at least not on a per capita basis — not by a long shot
  • And if the United States did “very little” testing, that would not change the number of people infected, although it would hamper efforts to reduce that figure and limit our understanding of where the virus is spreading.
  • ...12 more annotations...
  • Tests are perfect, in Trump’s mind, when they tell you what you want to hear — but not so great when they deliver bad news.
  • But if a test is going to produce an unwelcome result, why do it?
  • Numbers are crucial to the way Trump sees the world.
  • He cares passionately that people believe his claims that he has billions of dollars. He considered his (partly) abandoned nightly crisis briefings as TV shows whose success should be judged by the only metric for such events that matters to him: ratings. He began his presidency with an insanely obsessive row about how many people attended his inauguration. He understands the economy solely through the vicissitudes of the stock market
  • According to the book “Fear,” by Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward, Trump’s main concern in internal discussions about tax cuts was to have memorable figures: “I like those big round numbers. Ten percent, 20 percent, 25 percent.”
  • From the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, Trump has been primarily concerned less with protecting lives and more with projecting positive statistics.
  • Today, Trump is caught in a contradiction he cannot resolve: He likes the number of tests performed to go higher and higher but refuses to acknowledge the implications of their results.
  • His fury arose from the basic premise of the question: What the reporter was implying was that there is supposed to be a relationship between testing on the one side and reality on the other
  • when Katie Miller, Vice President Pence’s press secretary, tested positive for the virus: Trump said the result illustrated why “the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great.”
  • What Trump stopped short of saying is that a “good” test suddenly turns “bad” when it produces the “wrong” result
  • His ambivalence about testing — love the statistics, hate the results — leads him into wild inconsistency. Today he takes credit for the large numbers of tests done nationally (“nearly double the number of any country”), yet only a month ago he said flatly that governors were “responsible for testing”
  • those obstinate tests do have results, and they show a country with 5 percent of the global population having a third of the world’s known cases of covid-19
Javier E

'Under the Red White and Blue: Patriotism, Disenchantment and the Stubborn Myth of the Great Gatsby' Book Review | National Review - 0 views

www.nationalreview.com/...astrophe-feels-so-contemporary

patriotism myth book American dream good life culture selfishness

shared by Javier E on 02 Jun 20 - No Cached
  • now this gem of the Jazz Age is a contender for our Great American Novel, its lush prose and bittersweet melancholy perfectly balancing the tabloid ending to its tragic plot.
  • Greil Marcus tackles the meaning and the cultural influence of Fitzgerald’s masterpiece in his new book, Under the Red White and Blue: Patriotism, Disenchantment and the Stubborn Myth of the Great Gatsby
  • he sets out to see what The Great Gatsby has to say about America, and how it has informed countless other responses to the failures and successes of the American project.
  • ...9 more annotations...
  • Fitzgerald once floated “Under the Red White and Blue” as a possible title for Gatsby
  • readers have often seen in The Great Gatsby an allegory that critiques the American experiment
  • Marcus starts there, and proposes that Gatsby himself represents the conflicted nature of America: big, transcendent dreams yoked to sordid violence and greed.
  • what does Fitzgerald’s heartbreaking novel have to say to us today? It’s a portrait of a tremendous crash — some have read it as a prophecy of the crash that sparked the Great Depression
  • but it deals with a deeper crisis than any stock-market plunge. The people of Gatsby’s America have built a fragile world of distraction to numb their existential emptiness. They’re trying to live without the permanent things: without real love, without family, without sacrifice, without transcendent meaning
  • Even Gatsby’s lofty dream is just an egoistic project of self-fulfillment, an attempt to relive his own emotions from the past. It’s a world in which “there are only the pursued, the pursuing, the busy, and the tired.” That is, it’s a world built on the false premise that too many of us — if we’re honest — have accepted: that our life consists of busily avoiding pain and seeking pleasure.
  • The party was over. As I sit rereading The Great Gatsby amid the COVID-19 lockdowns, that phrase sticks with me. A lot of modern life has ground to a halt. The death toll rises; the shelter-in-place orders drag on. The economy shudders. The party is over, and we’ve all got a chance to do some soul-searching about what really matters, a chance to reflect on just exactly what the “party” was and whether we want to resume it when life returns to normal
  • He painted the glittering escapism of an age, but Fitzgerald was too true an artist to accept shallow substitutes for the deepest things. As he once wrote in an autobiographical essay about the Roaring Twenties, “I was pretty sure that living wasn’t the reckless, careless business these people thought.”
  • Fitzgerald’s book may speak to the American condition, as Marcus rightly sees; but it speaks louder to the human condition. Gatsby and the Buchanans and the Wilsons reap death or existential emptiness not because they have been bad Americans or because of the failure of American ideology, but because they have been bad humans — because to the last pages of the story they lived selfishly.
cartergramiak

Trump's Return Leaves White House in Disarray as Infections Jolt West Wing - The New York Times - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...trump-covid-white-house.html

trump politics pandemic

shared by cartergramiak on 07 Oct 20 - No Cached
  • The West Wing was mostly empty, cleared of aides who were sick or told to work from home, and staff in the White House residence were in full personal protective equipment.
  • Aides said the president’s voice was stronger after his return from the hospital Monday night, but at times he still sounded as if he was trying to catch air.
  • Four more White House officials tested positive, including Stephen Miller, a top adviser to Mr. Trump, bringing to 14 the number of people carrying the virus at the White House or in the president’s close circle.
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • West Wing aides, shaken by polls showing the president badly trailing Joseph R. Biden Jr., worried that they were living through the final days of the Trump administration
  • Late in the day, the stock market collapsed when Mr. Trump abruptly called off talks for a congressional coronavirus relief bill after the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, said such a stimulus was badly needed.
  • Some White House staff members wondered whether Mr. Trump’s behavior was spurred by a cocktail of drugs he has been taking to treat the coronavirus, including dexamethasone, a steroid that can cause mood swings and can give a false level of energy and a sense of euphoria.
  • Prominent supporters of the administration said Mr. Trump should have stayed at the hospital until he was no longer infectious or should remain confined to his residence.
  • There were no answers, either, on when Mr. Trump last tested negative for the virus — a crucial piece of information that the White House and Dr. Conley have refused to answer and would establish the known state of Mr. Trump’s health before the presidential debate last Tuesday or before he attended a fund-raiser in New Jersey on Thursday. The White House first made public that Mr. Trump had tested positive early last Friday.
anonymous

Severity of Trump's illness unclear as coronavirus rips through White House | Reuters - 0 views

www.reuters.com/...ough-white-house-idUSKBN26Q0CS

trump whitehouse coronavirus

shared by anonymous on 05 Oct 20 - No Cached
  • Trump’s announcement of his diagnosis landed like a bombshell on Friday, some 48 hours after his first presidential debate with Democratic challenger Joe Biden, highlighting the uncertainty that has marked a highly unusual campaign during a deadly pandemic.
  • a steroid, dexmethasone, that is normally used only in the most severe cases
  • Trump was running a high fever on Friday and had been given supplemental oxygen after his blood oxygen levels dropped
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • which has painted a rosy picture of his condition
  • Trump will need to continue treatment
  • Kayleigh McEnany said she had tested positive for the virus after “testing negative consistently” every day since Thursday.
  • held a briefing for reporters on Thursday in which she did not wear a face mask.
  • A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday showed Trump trailing Biden nationally by 10 percentage points. About 65% of Americans said Trump would not have been infected had he taken the virus more seriously.
  • But the growing number of COVID-19 cases in the White House as well as Congress - three Republican senators have tested positive for the virus in the last week - threatens to place Trump’s response to the pandemic under a finer microscope.
  • Trump is also under fire for a statement that he met with soldiers and first responders at the hospital in Bethesda - moves that potentially exposed even more people to the virus, as well as the drive-by on Sunday and a fundraising trip he made to New Jersey last week.
  • Major U.S. stock markets were trading higher on Monday amid hints of Trump’s potential release and signs of progress with a new fiscal stimulus bill in Congress. Wall Street’s main indexes slumped on Friday after Trump’s COVID-19 announcement.
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