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Contents contributed and discussions participated by silveiragu

silveiragu

What Liberal World Order? by Mark Leonard - Project Syndicate - 0 views

  • LONDON – After the annus horribilis that was 2016, most political observers believe that the liberal world order is in serious trouble. But that is where the agreement ends.
  • When the West, and especially the United States, dominated the world, the liberal order was pretty much whatever they said it was.
  • But as global power has shifted from the West to the “rest,” the liberal world order has become an increasingly contested idea, with rising powers like Russia, China, and India increasingly challenging Western perspectives. And, indeed, Merkel’s criticism in Munich of Russia for invading Crimea and supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was met with Lavrov’s assertions that the West ignored the sovereignty norm in international law by invading Iraq and recognizing Kosovo’s independence.
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  • The original iteration – call it “Liberal Order 1.0” – arose from the ashes of World War II to uphold peace and support global prosperity.
  • Liberal Order 1.0 had its limits – namely, sovereign borders. Given the ongoing geopolitical struggle between the US and the Soviet Union, it could not even quite be called a “world order.” What countries did at home was basically their business, as long as it didn’t affect the superpower rivalry.
  • After the collapse of the Soviet Union
  • Liberal Order 2.0 – penetrated countries’ borders to consider the rights of those who lived there.
  • But now the West itself is rejecting the order that it created, often using the very same logic of sovereignty that the rising powers used
  • The first would require a country like Germany, which considers itself a responsible stakeholder and has some international heft, to take over as a main custodian of the liberal world order
  • European countries are unsure how to respond to this new global disorder. Three potential coping strategies have emerged.
  • With the United Kingdom having rejected the European Union and US President Donald Trump condemning free-trade deals and the Paris climate agreement, the more fundamental Liberal Order 1.0 seems to be under threat.
  • A second strategy, exemplified today by Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
  • Turkey isn’t trying to overturn the existing order, but it doesn’t feel responsible for its upkeep, either.
  • extract as much as possible from Western-led institutions like the EU and NATO,
  • ostering mutually beneficial relationships with countries
  • The third strategy is simple hypocrisy: Europe would talk like a responsible stakeholder, but act like a profit maximizer. This is the path British Prime Minister Theresa May took when she met with Trump in Washington, DC. She said all the right things about NATO, the EU, and free trade, but pleaded for a special deal with the US outside of those frameworks.
silveiragu

Trump and Mussolini: The same, only different? Eleven key lessons from historical fascism - 0 views

  • Trump and Mussolini:
  • I’d like to draw some comparisons and contrasts between our present situation and that of fascist Italy between 1922 and 1945. I choose fascist Italy rather than Nazi Germany because it has always seemed to me a better comparison
  • Italy was the original form, while Germany was an offshoot. Although there have been many European and some Latin American varieties of fascism since then, the Italian model was the first and the one that has had the most lasting influence.
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  • His was a revolutionary agenda, designed to turn the world order upside down, rooted deeply in romantic and even avant-garde sensibilities. To see fascism as stemming ultimately from liberalism might sound surprising, but this is true of both socialism as well as fascism, because finally it is liberalism’s principle of human perfectibility from which these impulses derive.
  • the myth of American exceptionalism is just that, a myth, and that we have traveled so far from our national founding impulses that other tendencies, namely forms of what used to be considered peculiarly European anxieties, have now become the defining features of our polity.
  • 1. Fascism rechannels economic anxiety
  • . Especially after the Russian Revolution, the urgent question for all of Europe became: Was socialism the right path, or capitalism? And in either case, was a new political order required?
  • For the elites who propagated the “Washington consensus” in the 1990s, supported by such popularizers as New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, there was nothing complicated about globalization: Incomes would rise around the world, inequality would fall and liberal tolerance would flourish. This rosy picture is so far from reality as to be laughable
  • Thus the question arises again, with as much urgency as in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution: What shall be the world’s economic order? Is it possible to conceive, at this late date, of globalization with a human face? Or is something more revolutionary needed?
  • 2. Liberal institutions have already been fatally weakened
  • We are currently lamenting Trump’s evisceration of the media and other institutions of democracy, but he would not be having such success, at least with half of the population, if those institutions were not already seriously compromised
  • They may now be reacting viscerally against Trump, because of the crude way in which he takes on their shallowness, but it doesn’t mean anything to his supporters.
  • The Italian parliamentary system was marked by a tendency toward transformismo or “transformism,” to which our strongest parallel would be Bill (or Hillary) Clinton’s triangulation.
  • 4. Fascism keeps mutating
  • 3. Internal strongmen tussles don’t mean anything
  • There were always more assertive fascists around than Mussolini — for example, Roberto Farinacci, the ras (or leader) of Cremona
  • 10. Racism is inherent to fascism
  • its chameleon-like tendency to absorb the ideas of the opposition and to neutralize them and make them invisible leaves a profoundly disillusioning aftertaste. Ideology desperately wants to make a comeback
  • Mussolini, though an inveterate atheist, made peace with the Vatican, in the famous Lateran Accords of 1929, abandoning his most cherished beliefs in order to gain the complicity of the Catholic church. Earlier in the 1920s, he installed corporate-friendly ministers to work with Italy’s industrialists to enact an agenda they could be comfortable with. Such mutations are par for the course for fascists, they’re nothing to get excited about.
  • 6. Of course it’s a minority affair
  • To note that Trump did not win the popular vote (as was true of George W. Bush in 2000), does not take away from the power of fascism
  • Mussolini, though he established his regime on the myth of the March on Rome, was actually appointed by King Victor Emmanuel III when Mussolini seemed like the only figure, compared to the discredited liberal politicians, who could bring order to the country
  • Only a small minority need give overt consent. The rest can be quiet, or complacent, or complicit
  • 7. There is an ideology behind the chaos of ideologies
  • Italian historians after the fact claimed that fascism was an aberration
  • 8. Its cultural style makes no sense to elites
  • Trump and his successors will have to work with less potent stuff. So-called conspiratorial thinking is a unifying strand — I already mentioned Alex Jones — which connects many of the strands of ultra-conservative ideology throughout the past century. The Reds become Jews and then Muslims; the substitutions are not that difficult to make.
  • faux masculinity — is an important part of this cultural style
  • 9. Fascism leads inexorably to suicidal war
  • Once the façade of virile domesticity starts getting exposed, war becomes the only option to keep the regime going
  • 11. No form of resistance works
    • silveiragu
       
      Interestingly dark take on the nature of fascism; read this section carefully, if you are interested, to get a sense of what the author means.
  • What this shows is that fascism is highly adaptable to different needs and conditions, just as its opposite, democracy, is similarly flexible.
  • The thing to notice is that fascism, in all the places it’s been known to arise, converts an admittedly minority point of view into a mass energy that soon overwhelms every civilized instinct. Perhaps Trump doesn’t need to do this footwork; perhaps much of this foundational work was already accomplished in the Bush era. What should really concern us is that fascism now seems to have a certain stability that we have not seen in earlier models that relied on a single charismatic leader. Despite the Obama interlude, Trump has resumed where George W. Bush in his most feverish mood had left off. This suggests that fascism has become permanently stabilized in this country. It is the most worrisome aspect of the present situation.
  • One remarkable similarity — among many others — between Trump and Mussolini is their total preoccupation with coverage in the media
silveiragu

Trump blasts judge who blocked the immigration ban - Business Insider - 0 views

  • "What is our country coming to when a judge can halt a Homeland Security travel ban and anyone, even with bad intentions, can come into U.S.?" he tweeted.
    • silveiragu
       
      Note that judges DO have this power, legally.
  • US District Judge James  Robart, a Seattle federal judge and George W. Bush appointee, granted a nationwide temporary restraining order on the immigration ban Friday night
  • Robart's ruling
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  • does not allow "anyone" to travel to the US — travellers from the seven majority-Muslim countries
  • must still hold valid visas or green cards
  • . The State Department also announced on Saturday that it would allow people with valid visas into the country, and would reinstate visas that had been revoked
  • "In our country, no one is above the law and that includes the president,"
  • "When a country is no longer able to say who can, and who cannot, come in & out, especially for reasons of safety &. security - big trouble!" Trump tweeted. The president also leveled attacks at the "FAKE NEWS @nytimes" and tweeted out his campaign slogan, "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" as part of his Saturday morning barrage.
  • President Donald Trump on Saturday blasted the federal judge who issued a nationwide hold on the executive order
  • "The opinion of this so-called judge, which essentially takes law-enforcement away from our country, is ridiculous and will be overturned!" Trump tweeted.
  • Trump continued his tirade into the afternoon,
silveiragu

I Miss Barack Obama - The New York Times - 0 views

  • As this primary season has gone along, a strange sensation has come over me: I miss Barack Obama
  • Now, obviously I disagree with a lot of Obama’s policy decisions.
  • You’d be happy to have such people in your community. Could you say that comfortably about Ted Cruz?
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  • The first and most important of these is basic integrity
  • He and his wife have not only displayed superior integrity themselves, they have mostly attracted and hired people with high personal standards.
  • all sorts of unsightly characters floating around politics, including in the Clinton camp and in Gov. Chris Christie’s administration
  • Second, a sense of basic humanity.
  • Donald Trump has spent much of this campaign vowing to block Muslim immigration. You can only say that if you treat Muslim Americans as an abstraction. President Obama, meanwhile, went to a mosque, looked into people’s eyes and gave a wonderful speech reasserting their place as Americans.
  • Imagine if Barack and Michelle Obama joined the board of a charity
  • But over the course of this campaign it feels as if there’s been a decline in behavioral standards across the board. Many of the traits of character and leadership that Obama possesses, and that maybe we have taken too much for granted, have suddenly gone missing or are in short supply.
  • Third, a soundness in his decision-making process.
  • Take health care. Passing Obamacare was a mighty lift that led to two gigantic midterm election defeats.
  • Sanderscare would take employer coverage away from tens of millions of satisfied customer
  • This is epic social disruption
  • Fourth, grace under pressure.
  • Fifth, a resilient sense of optimism
  • To hear Sanders or Trump, Cruz and Ben Carson campaign is to wallow in the pornography of pessimism, to conclude that this country is on the verge of complete collapse.
  • But there is a tone of ugliness creeping across the world, as democracies retreat, as tribalism mounts, as suspiciousness and authoritarianism take center stage.Obama radiates an ethos of integrity, humanity, good manners and elegance that I’m beginning to miss, and that I suspect we will all miss a bit, regardless of who replaces him.
  •  
    Interesting as we study governmental crises in history to consider the popular and political usage of the term. 
silveiragu

Nations Approve Landmark Climate Accord in Paris - The New York Times - 0 views

  • suddenly, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France asked for opposition to the deal and, hearing none, gaveled the session closed.
    • silveiragu
       
      Interesting to evaluate this statement after the Congress of Vienna simulation.
  • The new accord changes that dynamic by requiring action in some form from every country, rich or poor. The echoes of those divides persisted during the negotiations, however.
  • Mr. Fabius, who has presided over the assembly, made an emotional appeal.
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  • “Our text is the best possible balance,” he said, “a balance which is powerful yet delicate, which will enable each delegation, each group of countries, with his head held high, having achieved something important.
  • negotiators from countries representing a self-described “high-ambition coalition” walked into the United Nations plenary session shortly before noon, they were swarmed by cheering
  • Mr. Ban has said there is “no Plan B” if this deal falls apart
  • But it is not yet certain that the draft accord will receive the unanimous support required for it to become legally binding.
  • But it is not yet certain that the draft accord will receive the unanimous support required for it to become legally binding.
  • A more likely course of events, Ms. Morgan and others said
  • They would then engage in sideline talks, while Mr. Fabius and his envoys negotiate to win their support.
  • Poorer countries had pushed for a legally binding provision requiring that rich countries appropriate a minimum of $100 billion a year to help them mitigate and adapt to the ravages of climate change. In the final deal, that $100 billion figure appears only in a preamble, not in what would be the legally binding portion of the agreement.
  • The stated goal of the agreement is to begin to level off the rise in fossil fuel emissions enough to stave off an increase in atmospheric temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit)
  • More recent scientific reports have concluded that even staving off that amount of warming will not save the planet from many of the worst effects of climate change, particularly rising sea levels. Thus, the text was expected to include a reference to reducing emissions enough to stave off a warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
  • Vulnerable low-lying island states have pushed for the inclusion of the more stringent target,
  • At the core of the agreement are a set of individual plan
  • n their own, those plans will lower greenhouse gas emissions only about half as much as is necessary
    • silveiragu
       
      Which is slightly humorous in a sad way, because the plans BY THEMSELVES will accomplish nothing; plans only are as good as how they are enacted.
  • The accord also requires “stock-taking” meetings every five year
  • It also sets forth language requiring countries to monitor, verify and publicly report their levels of emissions.
  • In the end, the final draft requires all countries to use the same system to report their emissions, but it allows developing nations to report fewer details until they build the ability to better count their carbon emissions
  • Some elements of the accord would be voluntary, while others would be legally binding. That hybrid structure was specifically intended to ensure the support of the United States
  • Such a proposal would be dead on arrival in the Republican-controlled Senate, where many lawmakers question the established science of climate change, and where even more hope to thwart President Obama’s climate change agenda.
  • As a result, all language in the accord relating to the reduction of carbon emissions is essentially voluntary
  • “This agreement is highly unlikely to trigger any legitimate grounds for compelling Senate ratification,” said Paul Bledsoe, a climate change official in the Clinton administration.
  • Representatives of 195 countries reached a landmark climate accord on Saturday that will, for the first time, commit nearly every country to lowering planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions to help stave off the most drastic effects of climate change.
  • final deal did not achieve all that environmentalists, scientists and some countries had hoped for
silveiragu

5 Ways To Look At The Paris Attacks : Parallels : NPR - 0 views

  • self-proclaimed caliphate
    • silveiragu
       
      The definition of "caliphate"-or at least the connotations associated with the word-have changed since the time of the Seljuk Turks. Careful reading of history demonstrates other "successor states" to the original caliphate that are NOT ISIS/ISIL.
  • By comparison, al-Qaida often favored major symbols such as the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in the Sept. 11 attacks, and U.S. embassies in Africa in a pair of 1998 bombings.
    • silveiragu
       
      Which raises the question: is the comparison valid? 
  • 3. Europe's Vulnerability: The Paris attacks point to weaknesses France and other European countries face in combating terrorism.
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  • 2. Multiple Soft Targets: The unifying thread in Paris was that all were soft targets and did not appear to hold special significance for the terrorists.
  • France is among many countries with large, disgruntled Muslim populations
  • 4. U.S. Has Mostly Been Spared:
  • There's no indication that the migrant influx has led to terror attacks. But the huge flow has shown that there's no real obstacle to moving across borders.
  • Muslims in the U.S., both those born in America and those who have immigrated, tend to be more successful, better integrated, and have turned to radicalism less often than Muslims in Europe and elsewhere.
  • 5. Racking Up Powerful Enemies: The Islamic State has rapidly accumulated sworn enemies far beyond the borders of Iraq and Syria, and the combined forces lining up against ISIS will put increasing pressure on the group.
  • France and Russia are now bombing in Syria.
  • The Islamic State has not suffered any major setbacks since its dramatic rise, and its many opponents have not acted in a coordinated manner.
  • As French authorities worked to piece together the details Saturday, here are five ways to think about the terror attacks that claimed more than 120 lives in Paris.
  • Beyond The Middle East: Until very recently, ISIS fought and carried out attacks almost exclusively in Syria and Iraq. But the group has now claimed responsibility or been blamed for major terror attacks in four additional countries in the past month.
  • suicide bombing that killed more than 100 people at an Oct. 10 rally in Ankara, the worst terror attack in the country's modern history
silveiragu

Clinton's lead over Sanders shrinks as her edge over GOP vanishes - CNNPolitics.com - 0 views

  • Hillary Clinton's lead in the race for the Democratic nomination has fallen to just 10 points, and at the same time, her advantage in hypothetical general election matchups against the t
  • op Republican contenders has vanished
  • READ THE POLL RESULTS
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  • Clinton's advantage among women has disappeared in matchups against Bush and Carso
  • The poll suggests Republican women have consolidated their support around their party's front-runners in the last month, and are now more apt to back both Bush and Trump than they were a month ago
  • The poll also finds Democrats' overall enthusiasm for Clinton has waned
  • Clinton 'pleads guilty' to being a moderate
  • The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone September 4-8 among a random national sample of 1,012 adults. This sample included 930 interviews with registered voters, 395 of whom were self-identified Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. For results among all registered voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among Democratic voters, it is plus or minus 5 points.
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