Major snow storm shaping up for the Rockies, including Denver - CNN - 0 views
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By now, we all realize that long-range weather forecasting -- models that forecast beyond the next 3 days -- can be as useful as a gas tank in a Tesla, but there is increasing confidence that a major snowstorm is taking shape over parts of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska this coming weekend.
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The models have been consistently showing for the last few days areas of snow accumulation over 40 inches in some places up and down the front range along Interstate 25.Early this week, forecast models were hinting at possibly even 5 feet of snow. The National Weather Service in Boulder was quick to point out it wasn't forecasting these totals. After a lengthy discussion on the possibilities in the forecast this morning "the messaging of 1 to 3 feet of snow for much of our forecast area is still on track," the NWS Boulder said.
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The snowstorm this weekend has a "moderate to high potential to surpass the March 23, 2016, heavy snow event," according to the National Weather Service in Boulder. That day it snowed 13.1 inches in Denver. NWS Boulder also gives a "low to medium potential to approach the March 2003 historical snowstorm." That storm dumped 2 to 4 feet of snow across the area.
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One of the unknowns this weekend is a matter of moisture. There will be severe weather southeast of Colorado on Friday and Saturday. Suppose that severe weather converts all of the Gulf of Mexico humidity into flooding rainfall. In that case, the moisture source for the front range snowstorm will be cut off. The air approaching the Rockies will be dried out, and the snow potential will be cut in half, at least.
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Meteorologists then consider the consistency of these model runs -- if they continue to show the same forecast or not -- along with local and historical context to develop a more accurate forecast.
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Being 3 to 4 days away from this storm, the current forecast has an extensive range of potential snowfall to account for all the factors that could impact the final forecast.
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By the time the snowfall ends on Monday, this high-impact storm will have paralyzed some cities, towns and interstate highways.
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The worst part of the storm won't arrive until Saturday and many things can change by then. Forecast snow totals for specific areas will change, and maybe drastically, as the storm evolves.
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As the snow's start time gets closer, the confidence for the track and amounts will get clearer. A two-day forecast is always more accurate than a four-day forecast just about anywhere in the world. Still, the 40-inch potential here should get your attention for now.