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“It’s not a threat to their own economic well-being; it’s a threat to their group’s dominance in our country over all.”

Last year, a Public Religion Research Institute survey of more than 3,000 people also found that Mr. Trump’s appeal could better be explained by a fear of cultural displacement.

she analyzed survey data from a nationally representative group of about 1,200 voters polled in 2012 and 2016.

Dr. Mutz’s statistical analysis focused on those who bucked the trend, switching their support to the Republican candidate, Mr. Trump, in 2016.

Dr. Mutz also analyzed a separate survey, conducted in 2016 by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. It showed that anxieties about retirement, education and medical bills also had little impact on whether a person supported Mr. Trump.

Losing a job or income between 2012 and 2016 did not make a person any more likely to support Mr. Trump

A person’s opinion on how trade affected personal finances had little bearing on political preferences

uation had worsened

Even before conducting her analysis, Dr. Mutz noted two reasons for skepticism of the economic anxiety, or “left behind,” theory. First, the economy was improving before the 2016 presidential campaign. Second, while research has suggested that voters are swayed by the economy, there is little evidence that their own financial situation similarly influences their choices at the ballot box.

“It wasn’t people in those areas that were switching, those folks were already voting Republican,” Dr. Mutz said.

Neither did unemployment or the density of manufacturing jobs in one’s area.

Last year’s Public Religion Research Institute report went even further, finding a link, albeit a weak one, between poor white, working-class Americans and support for Hillary Clinton.

While economic anxiety did not explain Mr. Trump’s appeal, Dr. Mutz found reason instead to credit those whose thinking changed in ways that reflected a growing sense of racial or global threat.

the findings revealed a fear that American global dominance was in danger, a belief that benefited Mr. Trump and the Republican Party.

“The shift toward an antitrade stance was a particularly effective strategy for capitalizing on a public experiencing status threat due to race as well as globalization,” Dr. Mutz wrote in the study.

“It used to be a pretty good deal to be a white, Christian male in America, but things have changed and I think they do feel threatened,

The other surveys supported the cultural anxiety explanation, too.

For example, Trump support was linked to a belief that high-status groups, such as whites, Christians or men, faced more discrimination than low-status groups, like minorities, Muslims or women

If wrong, the prevailing economic theory lends unfounded virtue to his victory, crediting it to the disaffected masses

More important, she said, it would teach the wrong lesson to elected officials, who often look to voting patterns in enacting new policy.