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Javier E

Response To Manzi On Stimulus | The New Republic - 0 views

www.tnr.com/...response-manzi-stimulus

deficit economics countercyclical US politics

shared by Javier E on 23 Aug 10 - Cached
  • I was arguing that the precise effect of the stimulus can't be measured. That doesn't mean we have no idea whether it worked. There is a general, though not unanimous, consensus within the economic field that increasing spending or reducing taxes temporarily increases economic growth. Basically, we do know the rules -- increasing the deficit in order to pave some roads and cut taxes for middle-income people will increase the size of the economy; the primary debate is just how much.
  • the conservative movement has invested a great deal of time into throwing cold water on this basic consensus. I think this campaign should be viewed as largely political. Private forecasters unanimously believe that fiscal stimulus can temporarily boost growth. They give no credence whatsoever to the various right-wing alternative models in which fiscal stimulus does not boost growth. Moreover, in 2001, when the objective case for fiscal stimulus was much weaker, there was no real debate about the efficacy of fiscal stimulus. The fact that Republicans are fiercely contesting the merits of fiscal stimulus now, while almost nobody was doing so when the case was much weaker in 2001, suggests that the right's skepticism is a political phenomenon.
  • Manzi's analogies of flying in an airplane assume is that there's some safe, default option -- staying on the ground, keeping away from the casino. That isn't a realistic way to think about economics. Doing nothing in the face of economic catastrophe is a policy choice. To the extent that it's been "tested," it's been shown to produce terrible results.
maddieireland334

The stark contrast between the job market and the election, and why it matters - The Wa... - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...he-election-and-why-it-matters

economy job market election US relationship

shared by maddieireland334 on 06 Mar 16 - No Cached
  • I believe I can say, without partisan challenge, that what’s going on in the Republican presidential campaign is an embarrassment to the United States.
  • Since the Great Recession, the rate fell from around 83 percent down to around 81 percent or so. Over the six-plus years of economic expansion, the best you could say is “at least it didn’t fall further.”
  • the tight job market is providing workers with a bit more bargaining power.
  • ...9 more annotations...
  • At 2.2 percent, average hourly wage growth is beating (very low) inflation, meaning paychecks have more buying power.
  • The underemployment rate, at 9.7 percent, remains elevated by 6 million part-time workers who would rather be full-timers but still can’t find the work.
  • the underemployment rate needs to fall another point before you can call the job market really tight
  • The underlying trend of job gains is over 200,000 per month, a strong enough clip to nudge the jobless rate even lower than its current eight-year low of 4.9 percent.
  • As you can see in the recent data, the better job market is giving people a reason to come back in and see what they can find.
  • It matters a great deal who they appoint in positions that directly affect fiscal policy. They appoint governors to the Federal Reserve. They set trade policy and deal with international competitors.
  • Unless the next president is smart and persuasive enough to get Congress to apply countercyclical policy to the next downturn, whatever gains folks have seen may be short-lived.
  • Many in the electorate are mad about the inequality embedded in the economy in a way that means they’ve only recently seen some gains (and that’s an average result — there are places that are still facing depressed conditions).
  • People are justifiably angry about an economy in which reckless finance brought us the recession, got bailed out and recovered way before the rest of us.
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