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DOI : http://dx.doi.org.gate3.inist.fr/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.080 [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Nyakundi M. Michieka, Jerald J. Fletcher Paru dans : Energy Policy, Available online 22 June 2012 Abstract This paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population, real GDP, electricity production and coal consumption in China for the period 1971-2009. Using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econ. 66 (1995) 225), the results suggest that there is causality running from GDP to coal consumption. The variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period. We also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect China's GDP over time. Policy measures aimed at influencing GDP could ultimately affect coal consumption. Highlights ► We find Granger Causality running from GDP to coal consumption. ► China can mitigate the adverse environmental effects of coal by altering GDP path. ► We find Granger Causality running from urbanization to electricity production. ► China needs to find other sources of energy to cater for growing electricity demand. ► Increasing urban population may slow economic growth due to overcrowding in cities.

Authors: Chao Li (University of Waikato) John Gibson (University of Waikato) Abstract China's local populations can be counted in two ways; by how many people have hukou household registration from each place and by how many people actually reside in each place. The counts differ by the non-hukou migrants - people that move from their place of registration - who have grown from fewer than five million when reform began in 1978 to over 200 million by 2010. For most of the first three decades of the reform era, the hukou count was used to produce per capita GDP figures. In coastal provinces the resident count is many millions more than the hukou count, while for migrant-sending provinces it is the reverse, creating a systematic and time-varying distortion in provincial GDP per capita. Moreover, a sharp discontinuity occurred when provinces recently switched from the hukou count to the resident count when reporting GDP per capita. A double-count also resulted because some provinces switched before others and initial resident counts were incomplete. This paper describes the changing definition of provincial populations in China and their impact on inequality in provincial GDP per capita. We show that much of the apparent increase in inter-provincial inequality disappears once a consistent series of GDP per resident is used.

Authors : Richard Dobbs (Director of the McKinsey Global Institute) Jaana Remes (McKinsey Global Institute senior fellow) In : The Cities issue. A "Foreign policy" special report, 17 Sept/Oct. 2012 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/13/introducing_the_most_dynamic_cities_of_2025 (site consulté le 17/08/2012) Introducing … The Most Dynamic Cities of 2025 An exclusive look at the 75 powerhouses of the urban revolution. BY RICHARD DOBBS, JAANA REMES | SEPT/OCT 2012 The list of the world's most dynamic cities is here. If there's any bright spot in an otherwise dim outlook for the global economy, it's the rise of cities. With fragile growth in Europe and the United States, the shift in economic balance toward the East and South is happening with unprecedented speed and scale -- and it's happening through urbanization. Quite simply, we are witnessing the biggest economic transformation the world has ever seen as the populations of cities in emerging markets expand and see their incomes rise as never before, producing massive geopolitical shifts and a wave of new consumers whose spending power will change the way the world shops and invests. COMMENTS (4) SHARE: Share on twitter Twitter Share on reddit Reddit Bookmark and Share More... More than ever, cities matter. Today, just 600 urban centers generate about 60 percent of global GDP. But though 600 cities will continue to account for the same share of global GDP in 2025, this elite group will have a very different membership. Over the next 15 years, the urban world's center of gravity will move farther south and, even more decisively, east. [...]

Thématique n° 2 [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Lynn Price, Nan Zhou, David Fridleya, Stephanie Ohshitaa, Hongyou Lua,Nina Zhenga, Cecilia Fino-Chen Paru dans : Habitat International, Available online 28 January 2012 Abstract In 2009, China committed to reducing its carbon dioxide intensity (CO2/unit of gross domestic product, GDP) by 40-45% by 2020 from a s2005 baseline and in March 2011, China's 12th Five-Year Plan established a carbon intensity reduction goal of 17% between 2011 and 2015. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China then established a Low Carbon City policy and announced the selection of 5 provinces and 8 cities to pilot the low carbon development work. How to determine if a city or province is "low carbon" has not been defined by the Chinese government. Macro-level indicators of low carbon development, such as energy use or CO2 emissions per unit of GDP or per capita may be too aggregated to be meaningful measurements of whether a city or province is truly "low carbon". Instead, indicators based on energy end-use sectors (industry, residential, commercial, transport, electric power) offer a better approach for defining "low carbon" and for taking action to reduce energy-related carbon emissions. This report presents and tests a methodology for the development of a low carbon indicator system at the provincial and city level, providing initial results for an end-use low carbon indicator system, based on data available at the provincial and municipal levels. The report begins with a discussion of macro-level indicators that are typically used for inter-city, regional, or inter-country comparisons. It then turns to a discussion of the methodology used to develop a more robust low carbon indicator for China. The report presents the results of this indicator with examples for 6 selected provinces and cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hubei). The repor

Chen, Binkai; Lu, Ming; Zhong, Ninghua In: Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series, February 2012 Abstract This paper provides a new explanation for China's extremely low consumption-to-GDP ratio, highlighting the constraints of the "household registration system" (Hukou) on China's household consumption. Our baseline results show that the consumption of migrants without an urban Hukou is 30.7% lower than that of urban residents. Moreover, consumption heterogeneity cannot be explained by migration effects, culture, social norms, habits or some other forms of household heterogeneity. Further studies on the composition of household consumption have shown that the gaps are largest in areas such as education and culture, durable goods and health. As both the number and income level of migrants are rising, the constraining effects of Hukou on household consumption will continue to increase.

This blog contains information and ideas about the interrelationship of religion, nature and modernity with a focus on China. The underlying premises are that religious values and ideas are key resources for constructing a sustainable future for the human species, and that nowhere on the planet is this more important than China. China is the world's largest country by population, the second largest economy in real GDP terms, and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

China's sustained economic growth since 1978 has stimulated heated debates not only about its rise to great power status but also the sustainability of the Chinese 'model' of development and its social, economic and environmental implications at home and abroad (see e.g. Pei, 2006; Peerenboom, 2007; Bergsten et al., 2008; Zhao, 2010). One of the most important aspects of China's economic development is the accompanying rapid urbanisation. The McKinsey Global Institute (2011: 15) characterised China's urbanisation a 'massive transformation'. Although China's 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) only sets the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate at 7% (as compared with a planned 7.5% and the actual 11.2% growth in the previous 11th FYP), the planned growth in urban population will increase by 4% per annum from 2010 to 2015, hence raising the urbanisation rate from 47.5% to 51.5% (The State Council, 2011: 10). China's growth has, however, been marked by unbalanced regional development in the past three decades as most of the coastal cities and regions are spearheading rapid growth while inland and rural areas are lagging behind. Part of this is the clear outcome of deliberate national policies in the 1980s as the coastal regions should supposedly have been championing growth for the entire country (see e.g. Yang, 1997; Lin, 1999). However, by the 1990s, there were clear concerns that such a pattern was neither sustainable nor desirable. The changing role of the Chinese state in urban and regional development is the key theme underlying this special issue. The papers assembled here address different aspects of this multifaceted process that is still unfolding. Since the launching of the reform and open door policy in 1978, China has embarked upon the transition from a planned economy to a more market-oriented system that is increasingly integrated with the global capitalist economy. Decentralisation of economic policy powers from Beijing to local governments at the

DOI : http://dx.doi.org.gate3.inist.fr/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.11.006 [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Kai-ya Wu, Hao Zhang Paru dans : Applied Geography, Volume 34, May 2012, Pages 137-145 Abstract In this study, Hangzhou, the capital city of Zhejiang Province in eastern China was selected as a case study. Based on time series Landsat MSS/TM/ETM + imagery and historical census data, analysis of the relationship between land use dynamics, built-up land expansion patterns, and underlying driving forces from 1978 to 2008 was performed, using an integrated approach of remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques and statistical methods. The results showed that rapid expansion of built-up land in the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area (HMA) led to accelerated land use conversion. The built-up land increased from 319.3 km2 in 1978 to 862.5 km2 in 2008. Expansion patterns of built-up land in the HMA were essentially characterized by axial expansion centered on the former city proper before 1991. In 1996 and 2001, two significant administrative division adjustments for the former city proper and two neighboring municipalities occurred. This led to the success in implementing strategies of "frog-leaping development along the Qiantang River" and "crossing the Qiantang River and developing southward". Spatially, a closer linkage between the former city proper and two neighboring municipalities was established. Consequently, rapid development of infrastructures, facilities, intensive industrial parks, and urban and rural settlements along the Qiantang River resulted in the eastward and southward expansion of built-up land. Thus, from 1991 to 2008 the model of urban expansion resulted in a multi-nuclei pattern. Furthermore, as shown with detailed analysis, the growth pattern of built-up land of the HMA is highly correlated with socio-economic factors, including the gross domestic product (GDP), per capita disposable income, popul

Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Aug 30 14:09. In our first post in this series, we examined the widely-held belief that China's steel demand will continue to rise at a rapid rate. FT Alphaville, along with others, contend that such forecasts are on shaky ground. This is, in part, because of the dubiousness of one of the underlying assumptions: that China will rapidly urbanise more of its population. (Here's a very recent example of this argument, from Stephen Roach.) The proportion Chinese living in urban areas just passed the 50 per cent mark in the past year but, the story goes, there is more to come. This will in turn mean more industrialisation, more modernisation, a bigger and consuming middle class and of course more GDP growth. In other words: [...] farmers who once led simple, subsistence-level lives now become factory and service workers in the city, reside in apartments furnished with appliances, occasionally eat out, and perhaps even send their kids to college. In the process, self-sufficient rural households are transformed into workers receiving higher wages and participating in the commodity economy of consumption. As such, urbanization is as much an economic and social transformation as it is a spatial and demographic process. Sounds great doesn't it? The above quote however comes from a paper by Kam Wing Chan in Eurasian Geography and Economics early this year. Chan is a professor of geography at the University of Washington, and he doesn't agree that this is how things will continue to play out for China.

This paper estimates the effect of access to transportation networks on regional economic outcomes in China over a twenty-period of rapid income growth. It addresses the problem of the endogenous placement of networks by exploiting the fact that these networks tend to connect historical cities.[BREAD Working Paper No. 325]. URL:[http://ipl.econ.duke.edu/bread/papers/working/325.pdf].