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Kirll Shaman

The 10 Most Innovative Online Financial Analysis Tools For Investors - 0 views

  • Each of the 10 online financial investment analysis tools have developed one or more of the following features: Real-time (or near real-time) financial data, information or intelligence about investment opportunities. Interactive tools and applications that allow investors to quantitatively assess the viability of new or existing investments. Ability to connect and network with other peer investors to exchange investment analysis tips and advice. Ability to compete, either for real money or virtually, with other peer investors to better hone their financial investment analysis skills.
  • I agree, this is a great list. I wanted to add one more thing about www.updown.com. We have just launched a great feature called Contests, which enables users to create their own public or private investment contests.
  • Stockhouse.com
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  • One new site to consider for next time: www.valuecruncher.com
Kirll Shaman

What Would Buffett Buy? - 0 views

  • Berkshire's book value per share has grown at a compounded annual rate of more than 20% over the past 40 calendar years.
  • The Warren Buffett Way: Investment Strategies of the World's Greatest Investor
  • From Feb. 13, 1995, through Jan. 17, 2008, the screen had an annualized return of 14.9%, vs. 8.2% for the S&P 500. In 2007, the screen stocks gained 15.7%, vs. 3.5% for the S&P 500. (All results reflect price appreciation only.)
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  • The full criteria for this screen: 1. Owner earnings (cash flow less capital expenditures) above $50 million (changed in February, 2006, from $20 million) 2. Net margins of at least 15% for the trailing 12 months 3. Return on equity of at least 15% the previous quarter and in every year for the last three years 4. Retained earnings that have grown less than the market capitalization, on an absolute basis, in the last five years 5. Looking five years into the future, projected cash flow per share greater than the current market price for each stock (discounted to the present using the 30-year Treasury yield); this helps remove overpriced stocks from the list 6. Market capitalization of $500 million or more
Kirll Shaman

FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Synthetic CDOs: not saving anything - 0 views

    • Kirll Shaman
       
      Collateralized Debt Obligations
  • the error was one of management, not of financial technology. The banks’ balance sheets — and those of their off-balance-sheet vehicles — were expanding faster than the banks’ executives and risk managers could really keep a handle on.
  • “super-senior”
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  • subordination level - known as an attachment point - will be set which will determine the percentage of the portfolio against which AAA rated bonds can be issued.
  • The super senior tranche is essentially a large slice of the CDO pie which is senior even to a triple-A tranche, hence its moniker.
  • structuring: the single most important invention in finance, if not economics, in the past few decades.
  • On our above diagram, the attachment point is at 80 per cent.
  • The right hand diagram shows the same structure, but with a super-senior tranche incorporated. This is where things start to get rather messy. And indeed, this is where the technological snafu occurred that caused a lot of the current crisis.
  • low yields.
  • Yields on AAA ABS were getting low by 2004/2005, low enough that there wasn’t really much interest in buying them. Banks were increasingly finding that with their securitisations and CDOs they couldn’t pass on the AAA tranches or the equity tranches - only the middle stuff. Of course, to complete a deal, you’d need to sell the lot. Or else take some of the risk yourself.
  • super-senior position was basically a way of further dividing the risk within the AAA tier of the structure
  • rom the rating agencies point of view - and indeed that of most investors - nothing has changed between the two structures. The AAA notes in both are still above the 20 per cent attachment point specified in the rating agency models.
  • But there is a fundamental difference. Say we invested $10m in both structures. We’ve shown this as the grey shading. Our investment in the left hand vanilla CDO yields +20bps. Our investment in the right hand CDO (with super senior) yields +40bps. But say we have a crisis, and the losses on the underlying portfolio exceed the 20 per cent attachment point modelled by the rating agencies. We’ve shown this on the diagrams above as a horizontal red line.
  • pretend the super-senior stake doesn’t exist
  • So the bank’s remaining risk, after selling off that triple-A-rated synthetic tranche, has been brought down to safer-than-triple-A levels. Some of the banks referred to it as a “quadruple-A” risk, although that’s not a real-world rating. But the banks were so comfortable that defaults at that level could never happen that they didn’t feel any need to hedge themselves against it happening.
  • Although the Basel risk-weighting requirements were relatively minuscule, they did still tie up reserve capital. Besides, banks had a way of doing better: by buying cheap protection on those super-senior positions using CDS.
Kirll Shaman

Bloomberg.com: News - 0 views

  • $780 million of AAA rated portions of collateralized loan obligations
  • PMorgan owned $14 billion of top-rated CLOs last quarter, according to a November regulatory filing.
  • CLOs, which are a type of CDO, repackage loans used to fund leveraged buyouts and other non-investment-grade, or junk, rated companies into new securities with varying ratings. High-yield, or junk, securities are rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and BBB- at Standard & Poor’s.
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  • JPMorgan received $25 billion in capital under the program.
  • 00 million of CLOs at above-market prices an “important technical event” for the market.
  • Top-rated CLOs hit record spreads over three-month Libor of 5.25 percentage points in the week ended Nov. 20, the report said. The borrowing benchmark is currently set at 2 percent.
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