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Wade Ren

The end of Bretton Woods 2? - 0 views

blogs.cfr.org/...the-end-of-bretton-woods-2

2008-crisis economics

shared by Wade Ren on 29 Oct 08 - Cached
  • The Bretton Woods 2 system – where China and then the oil-exporters provided (subsidized) financing to the US to sustain their exports – will come close to ending, at least temporarily. If the US and Europe are not importing much, the rest of the world won’t be exporting much.
  • And rather than ending with a whimper, Bretton Woods 2 may end with a bang. In some sense Bretton Woods 2 has been on life support for a while now. China’s recent export growth has depended far more on Europe than on the US. US demand for non-oil imports peaked in 2006. One irony of the past year is that the US was borrowing far more from China that it was buying from China. Campaign rhetoric that the US was paying for Saudi oil with funds borrowed from China isn’t far off – though it leaves out the fact that the US also borrows from Saudi Arabia to pay for Venezuelan, Mexican and Nigerian oil.
  • If Bretton Woods 2 ends in 2009 – if US demand for imports falls sharply in the last part of 2008 and early 2009, bringing the US trade deficit down – it won’t have ended in the way Nouriel and I outlined back in late 2004 and early 2005. We postulated that foreign demand for US debt would dry up – pushing up US Treasury rates and delivering a nasty shock to a housing-centric economy. As Brad DeLong notes, it didn’t quite play out that way. The US and European banking system collapsed before the balance of financial terror collapsed. Dr. DeLong writes: All of us from Lawrence Summers to John Taylor were expecting a very different financial crisis. We were expecting the ‘Balance of Financial Terror’ between Asia and America to collapse and produce chaos. We are not having that financial crisis. Instead we are having a very different financial crisis. Catastrophic failures of risk management throughout the entire banking sector caused a relatively minor collapse in housing prices to freeze up global finance to a degree that has not been seen since the Great Depression. The end result of this crisis though could be rather similar: a sharp contraction in credit, a fall in US economic activity, a fall in US imports and a fall in the amount of foreign financing the US needs.* The US government is (possibly) trying to offset the fall in private demand by borrowing more and spending more — but as of now there is realistic risk that the fall in private activity will trump the fiscal stimulus.
  • ...11 more annotations...
  • Or, to put it more succinctly, Bretton Woods 2, as it evolved, hinged both on the willingness of foreign central banks to take the currency risk associated with lending to the US at low rates in dollars despite the United States large current account deficit AND the willingness of private financial intermediaries to take the credit risk associated with lending at low rates to highly-indebted US households.
  • But now US financial institutions are neither willing nor able to take on the risk of lending even more to US households. For a while the US government was able to ramp up its lending to households (notably through the Agencies) and in the process effectively take over the function previously performed by the private financial system (over the last four quarters, the flow of funds data indicates that the Agencies provided around $800 billion of net credit to US households). But now the US government is struggling to keep the financial system from collapsing. It doesn’t seem like it will able to avoid a sharp fall in the overall availability of credit.
  • It is now clear how the financial sector kept profits up: it took on more risk, as it shifted from borrowing short to buy safe long-term assets (Treasuries and Agencies) to borrowing short to buy risky long-term assets. Leverage in the system also increased (and for some broker dealers that seems to be an understatement), as more and more financial institutions believed that the US had entered into an era of little macroeconomic or financial volatility. The net result seems to have been a truly explosive concentration of risk in the hands of a core set of financial intermediaries in the US and Europe. Securitization – it seems – actually didn’t disperse risk into the hands of institutions able to handle it.
  • I hope that the process of adjustment now underway isn’t as sharp as I fear. The US economy gradually can shift from producing MBS for sale to US investors flush with cash from the sale of safe securities to China and Saudi Arabia to producing goods and services for export – but it cannot shift from churning out complex debt securities to producing goods and services overnight. Indeed, in a slowing US and global economy, improvements in the US deficit will likely come from faster falls in US imports than in US exports – not from ongoing growth in US exports.
  • But right now it looks like there is a real risk that the adjustment won’t be gradual. And it certainly looks like the flow of Chinese (and Gulf) savings to US households over the past few years has produced one of the largest misallocations of global capital in recent history.
  • US taxpayers are going to be hit with a large tab for the credit risk taken on by undercapitalized financial intermediaries. Chinese taxpayers may get hit with a similar tab for the losses their central bank incurred by overpaying for US and European assets as part of its policy of holding its exchange rate down. The TARP is around 5% of US GDP. There are plausible estimates that China’s currency losses will prove to be of comparable magnitude. Charles Dumas puts the cost at above 5% of GDP: “Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research estimates that China makes 1-2 per cent on its (largely) dollar reserves. It then loses up to 10 per cent on the exchange rate and suffers a Chinese inflation rate of 6 per cent for a total real return in renminbi of about minus 15 per cent. That is a loss of $270bn a year, or a stunning 7-8 per cent of gross domestic product.”
  • Jboss — if some of the Chinese inflow could be redirected into investment in alternative energy, that would indeed be a win/ win. Some infrastructure bank style ideas have promise in my view — basically, the flow that used to go to freddie/ fannie could go to wind farms and the like. I would rather see more adjustment in china (i.e. more investment in Chinese infrastructure) but during the transition, if there is one, to a lower Chinese surplus, redirecting chinese financing toward new energy tech would be offer real benefits.
  • China likes 3rd generation nuclear power. Safe, lower cost than NG or coal, very much lower cost than coal with carbon sequestering, and zero carbon footprint. Wind is about 4X more expensive than our electric costs now. That’s in an area with consistent wind. Solar is worse. I don’t know if we can sucker them into investing in our technical fairy tales. Here’s a easy primer on 3rd gen nukes. http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
    • Wade Ren
      Wade Ren on 29 Oct 08
       
      is this true?
  • btw, solar thermal installations are so easy & affordable to retrofit onto existing structures, it’s amazing that there aren’t more of them here…until you realize that they work to decentralize energy. cedric — china is already doing it in china. they are way ahead of the curve over there. my partner brought back some photos of shanghai — rows of middle class homes each with a small solar panel on top. and that’s just the tip of the iceberg — an architect friend just came back from beijing and wants to move to china (he’s into designing self-powering structures and is incredibly frustrated by the bureaucracy and cost-prohibitive measures in the US).
  • I went to engineering school right after the Arab Oil Embargo, and alternative energy was a hot topic then. All the same stuff you hear of nowadays. They even offered entire courses on it , which I took. Then my first mini career was in the power plant biz, before Volker killed it with interest rates and the Saudies killed any interest in alt. energy with their big oil field discovery. For the last 5 years I’ve been researching what’s changed, and it is frighteningly little. Solar cells are still expensive and only have a 15% conversion efficiency. They developed the new cost reduced film technology, but that knocks down efficiency to 7%. Wind power works where there is wind constantly. Generators are mature technology and are already 90 some percent efficient. Geothermal, tidal, ect. work where they are available. Looks like coal gasification and synfuel is out because it makes too much CO2. Good news is 3rd gen nuclear is way better than 1st gen plants. Hybrid cars are good, and battery technology is finally getting barely good enough for all electric cars to be practical.
  • According to news report today, Japan’s trade surplus is less than 1 billion $ in September 08, a whopping 94% decrease compared to September 07. Does it imply that going forward Japan can not buy as much treasury as before?
Colin Bennett

The sun will never set for the petro-economies, just covered by clouds - 0 views

www.frost.com/...market-insight.pag

trends copper economy

shared by Colin Bennett on 23 Mar 09 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 23 Mar 09
     
    The falling oil prices may have varied effects on the investment strategies adopted by the petro-states and also on the various markets being analyzed in this study. The level of petrodollar investments is bound to increase. However, if the trend of falling oil prices continue, the quantum of investments made is also likely to fall. On the whole, dramatic growth is expected in the level of domestic investments in 2009. However, international investments are likely to continue growing in a few key sectors of the economy. The following are the various international sectors that can be expected to attract maximum petrodollar investments in 2009 * Real estate * Healthcare * Industrial The following are the various domestic sectors that can be expected to attract maximum petrodollar investments in 2009 * Banking and financial services * Aerospace and defense * Industrial * Education
Colin Bennett

Fixed phones to be exempted from licence fee-India Business-Business-The Times of India - 0 views

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...2983874.cms

infrastructure

shared by Colin Bennett on 26 Apr 08 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 26 Apr 08
     
    l Write to Editor NEW DELHI: The government on Friday said the fixed line telephony will be exempted from the licence fee to encourage service providers especially in the private sector to go to rural areas.
Colin Bennett

China Steel to triple production with new $92m plant : thewest.com.au - 0 views

www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx

china

shared by Colin Bennett on 01 May 08 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 01 May 08
     
    China Steel Australia plans to at least triple its nickel pig iron production capacity through a $92 million expansion of its Linyi plant in China's Shandong Province. The company, which services the domestic Chinese market, today announced that fixed price building contracts had been signed for the plant expansion, with production scheduled to commence in January, 2009.
xxx xxx

PV Solar Hits The Big Time - (Hyperlink to video) - 0 views

www.marketwatch.com

shared by xxx xxx on 15 Aug 08 - Cached
  • xxx xxx on 15 Aug 08
     
    http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid203719194/bclid86272812/bctid1716456468
Sergio Ferreira

Google plans service to store users' data: report | Reuters - 0 views

uk.reuters.com/...idUKN2744795720071127

storage

shared by Sergio Ferreira on 27 Nov 07 - Cached
  • a service that would enable users to store data from their personal hard drives on its computers
  • The newspaper also said Google plans to provide some free storage, with additional storage allotments available for a fee.
Colin Bennett

'Greenwash' hype fails to sway sceptical consumers - 0 views

www.ft.com/...ea-11de-a997-00144feabdc0.html

trends copper

shared by Colin Bennett on 01 May 09 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 01 May 09
     
    Consumers attach little credibility to companies' environmental and social marketing messages, a study has found, in spite of the millions spent on "greening" the image of carmakers, oil companies and other industries. The study of 20,000 people in 10 countries, released yesterday by Havas Media, showed half of them are willing to pay a 10 per cent premium for sustainably produced goods and services in spite of the pressures of the economic crisis.
Glycon Garcia

Mexico clears way for private sector investment in renewables | reegle Blog - 0 views

blog.reegle.info/...r-investment-in-renewables.htm

shared by Glycon Garcia on 26 Mar 09 - Cached
  • Glycon Garcia on 26 Mar 09
     
    Until November it was virtually impossible for a private developer of renewable energy power plants to become an independent power producer (IPP) in Mexico. Article 27 of the Mexican Constitution precluded private investment stating that electricity generation for public use is an activity to be undertaken exclusively by the Government. Mexico's enactment of a new law for the use of Renewable Energy and the Financing of the Energy Transition ( Ley para el Aprovechamiento de Energías Renovables y el Financiamiento de la Transición Energética ) substantially improves the legal framework for private investment in renewable energy projects. The law regulates renewable energy electricity generation for purposes other than providing public electricity services. The law states that the use of renewable energy for electricity generation is possible for private use and any excess energy can be sold, but only based on regulations and approvals by Mexico's energy regulatory body, CRE .
Colin Bennett

Europe in the Fiber Optic Age - 0 views

voicendata.ciol.com/...109061901.asp

trends copper fibre optics

shared by Colin Bennett on 19 Jun 09 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 19 Jun 09
     
    They want to supply residential and business buildings with largely fiber optic connections because the old copper cabling will soon no longer suffice to access communication networks. The growing Internet data network plus new online and multimedia services require increasing amounts of bandwidth and better transmission technology.
Colin Bennett

Will Asia become the center for innovation in the 21st century? - 0 views

whatmatters.mckinseydigital.com/...innovation-in-the-21st-century

trends copper

shared by Colin Bennett on 09 Jul 09 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 09 Jul 09
     
    Asia is using technology to build new models for delivering goods and services to its vast low-income populations. Many of those models will lead to powerful innovations for global markets.
Colin Bennett

Inherently fault current limiting ( IFCL ) superconductor cable - 0 views

media-newswire.com/release_1096070.html

trends copper superconductor

shared by Colin Bennett on 10 Aug 09 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 10 Aug 09
     
    The technology is capable of carrying 10 times as much power as copper wires of the same size, while also being able to automatically adapt to power surges and disruptions from lightning strikes, heat waves, and traffic accidents, even sabotage. A single superconductor cable can replace 12 copper cable bundles, freeing up more space underground for other utility needs like water, natural gas, or phone service.
Colin Bennett

Replacing pipes made of polybutylene - 0 views

www.ccemag.com/...ISArticle.asp

trends copper

shared by Colin Bennett on 08 Sep 09 - Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 08 Sep 09
     
    While older municipalities across Canada are busy replacing lead distribution water supply pipes that have been in the ground since the last century, others are having to replace pipes made of polybutylene (PB) that were installed as recently as 25 years ago. The polybutylene plastic service pipes were installed in the 1970s and 1980s to connect street mains to the home as a cheaper alternative to copper piping. However, the polybutylene pipes were subject to collapse, and over time have become brittle, are cracking and leaking water.
Colin Bennett

BHP, Chile's Codelco Aim To Boost Mining Sector Suppliers - 0 views

news.morningstar.com/...ViewNews.aspx

trends copper BHPB Codelco

shared by Colin Bennett on 26 Jan 10 - Cached
  • SANTIAGO -(Dow Jones)- Chilean state copper mining giant Corporacion Nacional del Cobre and global diversified miner BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) aim to boost local mining services suppliers so they will eventually export their services and technology worldwide.
Piotr Ortonowski

US - Copper fabricators and service centres hold pessimistic outlook - 0 views

www.amm.com/...ook-not-optimistic-survey.html

Copper

shared by Piotr Ortonowski on 05 Oct 11 - No Cached
  • Piotr Ortonowski on 05 Oct 11
     
    According to a survey conducted by the Copper and Brass Servicecenter Association, the majority of copper distributors and fabricators hold a pessimistic view of the market. 81% of surveyed Service centres and 39% of surveyed suppliers believe that orders in Q4 will remain the same, with 46% and 14% of them, respectively, expecting orders to fall. Furthermore, there is widespread concern over the uncertain future of the copper market in the light of financial turmoil in the US and Europe.
James Wright

USA - Copper and Brass Servicenter shipments flattened in May; mill lead times forecast to narrow in Q3 - 0 views

www.metalbulletin.com/...ributor-shipments-flatten.html

copper brass mill servicenter USA shipments lead

shared by James Wright on 05 Jul 11 - No Cached
  • James Wright on 05 Jul 11
     
    The Copper and Brass Servicenter Association reported that shipments of brass mill products amounted to 20.24Mlbs in May 2011, up by 0.4% on the previous month and down 11.3% y-o-y. This comes after a 13% fall in April from 25Mlbs in March, which was the peak that Service centers experienced in Q1. Industry sources attributed the flattening in shipment levels in May to a decline in general consumer activity, also indicated by the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index falling from 60.4 to 53.5. In addition, it was reported that US brass mills are expecting lead times to narrow or flatten during Q3. Lead times are currently two to five weeks, having previously lengthened in early Q2. Lead times tend to be longer when consumer and Service center demand is weak.
Colin Bennett

Nanogrid Market to Reach Nearly $60 Billion in Annual Vendor Revenue by 2023 - 0 views

www.navigantresearch.com/...-annual-vendor-revenue-by-2023

trends copper microgrid nanogrid

shared by Colin Bennett on 25 Mar 14 - No Cached
  • At its essence, a nanogrid is simply a small microgrid, typically serving a single building or a single load.  Nanogrids, however, have the ability to fill increasingly important niches within the larger power sector, serving as modular building blocks for energy services that support applications ranging from emergency power for commercial buildings to the provision of basic electricity services for people living in extreme poverty. 
Colin Bennett

Government Policies are Driving the Energy Efficient Buildings Technology and Services Market in Asia Pacific - 0 views

www.navigantresearch.com/...ervices-market-in-asia-pacific

trends copper Asia building cosntruction

shared by Colin Bennett on 05 Jun 14 - No Cached
  • Since buildings account for a large portion of national energy consumption, most of the governments in the Asia Pacific region have taken steps to promote energy management and energy efficiency in both new construction and existing buildings.
Colin Bennett

Despite Ebola, investors betting on Africa - 0 views

www.mining.com/...la-investors-betting-on-africa

trends copper Africa

shared by Colin Bennett on 02 Jan 15 - No Cached
  • Colin Bennett on 02 Jan 15
     
    "In a survey of Africa's investment attractiveness, 72.7% of those surveyed had improved optimism. Part of the reason for this is Africa's economy is becoming more diversified, and weighted towards more consumer facing services."
Colin Bennett

Utility Grid Recapitalization - 0 views

tdworld.com/...grid-recapitalization

trends copper utility

shared by Colin Bennett on 29 Jul 14 - No Cached
  • Something as large and venerable as a national power grid comprises millions of long-lived components spanning generations of evolving technology.  At every stage of its past and future life, newer and older technology work together in a state of perpetual recapitalization.  It is not a realistic proposition to bring the entire system “up to date” all at once any more than to tear up all the nation’s roads and repave them all at once.  As long as technology innovation keeps marching on, there is always going to be a mix of technologies incorporated into something of such a scale that it can only be recapitalized over decades. 
  • Colin Bennett on 29 Jul 14
     
    Component service life a pace of recapitalization
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