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Jon Barnes

Mueller Industries posts weaker Q2 earnings - 0 views

shared by Jon Barnes on 22 May 08 - Cached
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    US speciality brass mill Ansonia Copper and Brass Inc. has announced that it will lay off 85 of the 102 employees at its Liberty Street, Ansonia, factory in Connecticut. The plant manufactures copper alloy rod and wires. Company President Raymond McGee said "it's a very, very difficult situation". He blamed the redundancies, on top of 76 employees laid off in April 2007, on the company's struggle with escalating costs. Since 2002 electricity costs have soared 239%, natural gas 200%, fuel oil 125%, and copper and nickel 500% apiece. Ansonia's other facility in Waterbury, CT, which manufacturers copper alloy tube is unaffected by the announcement.
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    Tough times in the US brass mill industry
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    Dowa Metanix announces capacity increase Company announces new pickling line and facility renewal Dowa Metanix, the rolled copper maker of the Dowa Metaltech group announced it will invest around ¥2 billion (US$ 19 million) in a new pickling line and renewal facility during the current fiscal year which began in April 2008. The new pickling line is expected to begin operations early in the fiscal year 2009 and the new line and improved facilities are expected to improve the firm's cost competitiveness. The company then said it plans to expand output capacity by 40% to 1,200 tonnes per month by 2010 as it tries to improve productivity to increase its supply for connector pins and semi conductor lead frames.
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    In the past few days world leading cablemaker Nexans has announced one acquisition, one new joint venture and one asset disposal. On the 30th May, Nexans acquired Intercond a leading Italian manufacturer of special cables for industrial equipment and subsea applications. The company had sales of €90m and employs 150. "This [€90m] acquisition fits totally in the Group's strategy by increasing the proportion of its business in high value-added special cables", said Gerard Hauser, Chairman and CEO of Nexans. On the 2nd June, Nexans released a press report confirming that it has formed a joint venture to create a wire and cable plant in Qatar, the country's first manufacturing facility. Qatar International Cable Company (QICC) is owned 29% by Nexans with the balance being owned by Special Projects Company and Al Neama Industrial Co. The new plant in the industrial city of Mesaleed, 40km from Doha, and will employ 210 people. By the end of 2009 it will begin manufacturing low and medium voltage cables for buildings and energy infrastructure as well as special cables for the oil and gas industry. This JV will generate sales of $150m per year by 2010 at current copper prices. Finally, Nexans confirmed that it has completed the pre-announced sale of its copper telecom cable plant at Santander in Spain to the British company B3 Cable Solutions for €17m. These three actions continue to refocus the group's strategy on priority market segments.
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    Hot on the heels of the news that Nexans was to build a joint venture in Qatar to construct the country's first wire and cable factory , comes today's news that El Sewedy Cables of Egypt is also to build a $150m power cable plant in Qatar. The 30,000tpy capacity plant will start operating at the end of 2009 or early 2010 and will mostly sell to the domestic market. El Sewedy will own 50% of the company and Qataru based Aamal Holding will hold the remainder. El Sewedy is currently building new cable factories in Algeria and Saudi Arabia, with both expected to start later this year.
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    Turkish copper semis producer Sarkuysan expects its output of copper products (wirerod, wire, tube and billet) to rise from 185,000 tonnes in 2007 to around 200,000 tonnes in 2008. According to the General Manager Hayrettin Cayci, "The market is forcing us to increase production as demand, particularly in Turkey, is very healthy", adding that demand came mainly from a Turkish property construction boom. "There's a big boom in demand for energy cables. Plus developed European countries have pulled away from cable production and they're mainly supplying from countries like Turkey". However, high copper prices have eroded profit margins so the company is focussing on more higher value products. He expected total Turkish copper demand (refined and scrap) to rise above 500,000 tonnes this year, from 450,000 tonnes now, and by 2010 he expected demand would reach 600,000 tonnes. Refined copper consumption is currently around 300,000 tonnes.
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    The Exsym Corporation, the joint venture between SWCC Showa Holdings and Mitsubishi Cable Industries, has announced plans to expand its exports of ultra high voltage cables to the Middle East and South East Asia. In order to meet this increase in demand, a horizontal sheathing line has been transferred to the company's Aichi plant in Japan. This will bring the number of sheathing lines for ultra high voltage cables at the plant to three, once the transferred line begins commercial operation over the summer. Exsym also plans to renew one of the two conductor stranding lines at the Aichi plant with the new line expected to begin commercial operation in November 2008. With these new lines as well as an increased number of construction staff, copper cable capacity at the plant is expected to grow by around 200 tonnes per month to 1,200 tonnes per month. In the fiscal year 2007, Exsym posted revenue of ¥41 billion ($0.39 billion) with an operating profit of almost ¥2 billion ($0.02 billion). Exports of ultra high voltage cables to the Middle East and South East Asia accounted for around 40% of the total revenue. The company expects the increase in export capacity to increase revenue to ¥43 billion ($0.41 billion) per year by the end of the fiscal year 2010.
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    Mitsubishi Shindoh is to invest Yen6-7 billion to expand production of copper strips at its Sambo plant in Osaka, Japan. This will increase capacity from 3,200 tonnes per month (tpm) to 4,200tpm by March 2010. In addition, the company will transfer 800tpm of copper strip production from its plant in Wakamatsu, Fukushima, Japan, bringing total production capacity to 5,000tpm. Mitsubishi Shindoh will also spend Yen6 billion to improve its copper alloy strip capabilities at its Wakamatsu plant. Productive capacity will remain at 6,500tpm, but with an increased ratio of high quality products. As a result, total company capacity will grow by 40% to 11,500tpm. Mitsubishi Shindoh is a copper and copper alloy fabricator within the Mitsubishi Materials Group. Japan mills have recently seen a strong growth in orders from the semiconductor, leadframe, connector and automotive industries, and clearly expect this to continue.
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    Hindalco Industries and Sterlite Industries - the two privately owned Indian copper smelter/refinery/rod producers - are considering changing their domestic pricing mechanism for copper due to the dramatic rise in oil prices. At present, a uniform pricing system for customers all over the country is in place, however, the companies are mulling a change to ex-works pricing. This would mean that customers would be charged a different price depending on their delivery destination from the smelter. To balance the recent hike in fuel prices, they had recently started levying a Rs2/kg freight charge across the country irrespective of distance. Diesel is used in firing the furnaces while furnace oil is used in running them. The total fuel cost is estimated at 10-12% of the price of copper, with 1% of this being the transportation cost. The fuel price hike has not affected domestic copper demand as yet, but a prolonged period of this sentiment may hit many developing infrastructure projects badly.
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    Jiangxi Copper said it expects Chinese refined copper consumption to grow at 8-10% this year driven by investment in the power industry. Power generation accounts for between 50-60% of all copper used in China. Damage to power generation capacity caused by this year's earthquake in Sichuan province will require a major rebuilding program which will also stimulate copper consumption. Chinese refined copper imports fell by 23% year on year between January and April, however, this decline was at least partly explained by a 23% expansion in Chinese refined copper production during the period. Wu Yuneng, General Manager of JCC Southern Copper said, "We need more concentrate and scrap rather than refined copper".
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    Four major Japanese copper tube producers plan to reduce production by 4% year-on-year to 84,220 tonnes in total during the first half of the fiscal year 2008 (April 07-March 08). It is reported that demand for copper tubes has fallen because of the inactive construction industry as well as high copper prices. The construction industry saw a major slowdown last year after the introduction of new building regulations. All four producers expected this weak trend to continue. Sumitomo Light Metal is the only producer who plans to increase its output estimate, but only by 1% year-on-year. Kobelco & Materials Copper Tube says that it would decrease normal tube output for export to adjust the inventory level at its Malaysian operation. Furukawa Electric and Hitachi Cable said they would need to focus more on their commercial tube businesses. It is believed that the tube market has also been hit by substitution from aluminium.
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    As of the 30th May, the Optical Cable Corporation acquired Superior Modular Products Incorporated (known in business as SMP Data Communications) in a deal worth $11.5 million. SMP Data Communications is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the Optical Cable Corporation. The President and CEO of Optical Cable, Neil Wilkin, said the acquisition would enable the company to expand its product offerings with more complete cabling and connectivity solutions, including fibre optic and copper connectivity. SMP Data Communications manufactures more than 2,000 products including cutting edge Category 6a connectivity solutions which offer a 10 Gig throughput.
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    A subsidiary of Japanese company Sumitomo Electric Industry Group, Sumitomo Electric Wintec Inc, has recently developed a new type of winding wire. The HGZ is a scratch-resistant winding wire for varnish impregnation for compressor motor. The company has started selling this new type of winding wire. This new development improves the adhesive tendency of varnish which solves the problem of varnish impregnation in fixing coil from traditional scratch-resistant winding wire. It also improves the energy efficiency of motor as it forms coil with higher density. Sumitomo Electric Wintec specialises in copper-based magnet wire and it serves mainly the manufacturers of air conditioners, automobiles, refrigeration equipment and televisions.
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    Luvata's ECO-Heatcraft division has launched a new technology for its air conditioning and refrigeration systems based upon using carbon dioxide as a refrigerant. The company believes that, as well as offering zero ozone depletion and less effect on global warming, the use of carbon dioxide can also allow more efficient operation of the system than traditional refrigerants. Luvata claims that, "The higher volumetric efficiency of carbon dioxide (known as R744) means that the cross sectional area of pipes used in heat transfer equipment can be reduced. As a result, equipment has the potential to be smaller, lighter, more efficient and better for the environment". The development of smaller diameter pipes with reduced wall thicknesses would tend to favour existing inner grooved copper tube based designs rather than emerging aluminium based technologies.
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    Further evidence of the impact of the North American economic slowdown on copper demand has recently been published by the ABMS and government statistical bodies. North American copper wirerod production plummeted 9.6% year-on-year to 174,000 tonnes in April. Output had been on a downward trend but the magnitude of the deterioration in April has still come as something of a surprise. A year-on-year increase of 2.0% in North American output January had been followed a 1.0% fall in February and a 2.7% drop in March. In April Canadian output was flat year-on-year due to improving export sales to the US, while US production fell 9.8% year-on-year and Mexican shipments slumped by 17.5%. On a year-to-date basis North American wirerod production was 2.9% lower in the four months to April 2008. Weakening demand from the automotive industry, coupled with a resurgance in copper prices and the return of Russian wirerod imports has clearly led to a deteriorating market situation for domestic mills.
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    Mueller Industries second quarter results highlight the tough times that the US brass mill industry is facing, but that companies can still operate profitably in a challenging market environment. The company's plumbing and refrigeration segment saw sales fall 11% to US$404m, while its operating profits dropped 32% to US$35m. The company blamed lower shipment volumes and lower spreads for the weaker performance. Sales at the company's OEM division, which includes its brass rod activities, rose 10% year-on-year to US$354m, while its operating profits rose 5% to US$19m. The improvement here is due to acquisition of Extruded Metals. Commenting on the results Harvey Karp, Chairman of Mueller Industries said "Mueller's earnings for the first half of 2008 were achieved despite the continuing decline in the housing industry, the sub-prime mortgage meltdown, the turbulence in the financial markets, rising metal costs, sky-high energy prices and a slowing national economy. Considering these adverse circumstances, we are pleased with the results."
Wade Ren

Demographic projections and trade implications - 0 views

  •   To summarize the raw numbers, China’s population is expected to grow from 1.32 billion today to 1.46 billion in 2030, after which it will decline slowly, to around 1.42 billion in 2050.  Its working population is currently around 840 million.  This component of the population will rise in the next ten years to around 910 million and then will decline quite rapidly to around 790 million by 2050.
  • The graph below shows the composition of China’s population by age group.  Needless to say the most dramatic change is the explosive growth of the over-65 population, followed by the decline in the share of the young.  Another way of understanding this is to note that China’s median age basically climbs over this period from 24 to 45 (which, by the way, may have favorable consequence for long-term political stability).
  • I don’t have the figures yet from before 1990, but looking at other sources I would guess that China’s working population grew by about 2% or more annually during the 1970s and 1980s.  In the 1990s, as the table indicates, the growth rate of the working population slowed to 1.72%, declining further in the current decade to around 1.42% on average.  The number of working Chinese keeps growing until around the middle of the next decade, and then begins to decline by about half a percent a year.
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  • All this has important implications both for nominal growth rates and per capita growth rates in the next few decades.  For one thing, a country’s GDP growth rate can be expressed as a factor of the growth rate of its working population and the growth rate of average productivity per worker.  As the growth rate of the working population swings from positive to negative – by a little more than 2%, depending on what periods you compare – this will have a commensurate impact on Chinese GDP growth rates, i.e. all other things being equal (which of course they are not).  China’s equilibrium growth rate should be about 2% lower than the equilibrium growth rate of the past two or three decades.
  •  This implies that over the last three decades China has had a demographic bias towards trade surpluses (working population, a proxy for production, grew faster than total population, a proxy for consumption), but over the next three decades it is likely to have a demographic bias towards trade deficits.  
  • Three years ago I argued in a Wall Street Journal OpEd piece that because of the aging and declining populations of Europe and Japan (and to a lesser extent China and Russia), compared to the growing population and relatively stable age distribution in the US, it was not unreasonable for the former countries to run large current account surpluses with the US since they would need the accumulated claims against the US to pay for the current account deficits they would need to run to manage their demographic adjustments.  This is why I have never been terribly worried about the sustainability of the US trade deficit.  In the next decade it is likely that demographic changes will create pressures to reverse those US trade deficits.
Colin Bennett

IEEE Spectrum: Greenhouse Gas Trends - 0 views

  • Last year, critics of the Kyoto Protocol glommed onto statistics showing apparently that the Europeans have been less successful than the United States in ­curtailing the growth of greenhouse-gas ­emissions. “Since 2000, emissions of carbon dioxide have been growing more rapidly in Europe, with all its capping and yapping, than in the U.S., where there has been ­minimal government intervention so far,” wrote the The Wall Street Journal’s Kyle Wingfield, in a typical comment.
Colin Bennett

"See Mi" Helps Cyclists Stay Safe on PSFK - 0 views

  • In a measure to protect their cyclists, the Danish city of Grenå is funding a large-scale project called “See Mi” that will make navigating the city’s busiest streets easier for both cyclists and drivers.  The initiative will see the installation of battery-powered RFIDs in the steering columns of 300 bikes as well as receivers at seven of the city’s most dangerous intersections.
Colin Bennett

Trying to Guess What Happens Next - New York Times - 0 views

  • YOU need not be a Wall Street chieftain to feel the anxiety that has wrapped its arms around the American economy.
Colin Bennett

Vale may leave ICMM over Rio Tinto lawsuit - 0 views

  • The Wall Street Journal, relying on unnamed sources who are "familiar with the situation", reports that Vale wrote a letter to the ICMM "regarding its membership in the body."
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