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AS COVID-19 FEARS subside, travelers are significantly less concerned about safety during travel, driving a significant rebound in travel activity, according to a survey by travel risk and crisis response provider Global Rescue. Most are vaccinated, or have recently recovered from COVID-19. The 2021 fall Global Rescue Traveler Sentiment and Safety Survey revealed that nearly 86 percent of travelers have taken domestic trips, and 42 percent have traveled internationally, since the start of the pandemic last year. The survey was conducted among more than 1,500 of the firm's current and former members between Oct. 26 to 30, 2021. "Between April and October, there's been a 74 percent jump in people taking domestic trips and an enormous 207 percent increase in individuals traveling internationally," said Dan Richards, CEO of Global Rescue and a member of the U.S. Travel and Tourism Advisory Board. According to the survey, fear of COVID-19-related quarantine or infection while traveling declined by 37 percent compared to January 2021.

NEARLY HALF OF travelers, or 49 percent, have already taken an international trip, according to a survey by travel risk and crisis response provider Global Rescue. That indicates an 88 percent jump in travel abroad since summer of 2021. The Winter 2022 Global Rescue Travel Safety and Sentiment survey has also revealed that domestically, 85 percent of respondents have already traveled, signaling an 18 percent increase during the period. The survey of more than 1,400 respondents between Jan. 25 to 29 found that nine out of 10 travelers are "much less or less" concerned about travel since the pandemic, showing a 22 percent increase in travel confidence. "All signals are pointing to the beginning of the end of international travel restrictions due to the pandemic. Countries like New Zealand, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and others are opening their borders as severe COVID-19 illnesses and hospitalizations decline, vaccinations increase and testing is more convenient. Domestic travel continues to increase but the big news is that travel abroad is surging," said Dan Richards, CEO of Global Rescue. "When people feel safe, they travel and we are seeing tremendous, positive change in the traveler confidence about their well-being."

BEST WESTERN HOTELS & Resort executives say the company is riding a wave of success that brought its members to Hawaii for its 2023 Annual Convention. Best Western benefited from budgeting for a forecasted recession that now seems unlikely this year, and saw continued growth domestically and internationally with India "top of mind." Other topics addressed during the convention at Hilton Hawaiian Village in Honolulu last week include the strategy to be followed by Joelle Park, Best Western's newly hired senior vice president and chief marketing officer. Also, the company's new program to advance women in hotel ownership was getting under way. Making waves Larry Cuculic, president and CEO, opened the conference giving details on the company's performance. "The Big Wave reflects the surge that BWH Hotels has made in the travel industry and how we are making 'big waves' together all over the world," Cuculic said. "Our Big Wave has rippled through our organization, our industry, and our lives, touching our guests, our communities, and leaving a rich legacy of success."

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

HOTEL INVESTMENT AND management company Banyan Group has announced that its $35 million Banyan Lodging Enhanced Value Fund has been fully subscribed. The final participants were domestic and foreign families, a statement said. The BLEV, or "Believe" fund offers an opportunity for investors to purchase hotels that have been impacted by the on-going COVID-19 crisis, the statement added. "Interest in our BLEV fund has risen steadily since our original announcement earlier this year, as evidenced by how quickly the raise was completed, to the point where we now actually are over-subscribed," said Rakesh Chauhan, managing partner and CEO, Banyan Investment Group. "We already have our sights on several respected hotels in strong markets with high barriers to entry and multiple demand generators to help offset any potential economic headwinds that could arise in the future. We look forward to a successful run with our partners and fully expect this to be a profitable endeavor for all involved."

ZERO-BASED BUDGETING is essential for hotels amid near- and long-term volatility, according to a blog from HotStats. The blog also suggested that hoteliers need to turn to other futureproofing or future-cushioning methods. In a recent blog post, Michael Grove, COO, HotStats said that zero-based budgeting, a method of budgeting in which all expenses must be justified for each new period starting from a zero base, is very necessary given the fluidity of the global economy and, ultimately, its impact on hotel operations. At the recent 2022 M3 Partners meeting, Grove first illustrated the pandemic's effect on worldwide profits and how it's changed the landscape. "It's worth reminding ourselves of the importance and magnitude of the U.S. hotel industry's share on the global scale, which has only grown during the pandemic," Grove said in the article. According to the blog post, almost half of global profits are produced in the U.S. and that share only rose as the pandemic slackened. "A massive 47 percent of hotel profits are achieved in the U.S., up 6.6 percentage points since 2019, the result of myriad variables, including a large domestic market and staycation trend," Grove said in the post. "Meanwhile, severe lockdowns and restrictions in Europe and Asia-Pacific sent their percentages down as the Middle East received a boost in the fourth quarter 2021 from Expo 2020 in Dubai."

APROXIMATELY 115.2 MILLION travelers are expected to cover 50 miles or more from home during the 10-day year-end holiday travel period, according to AAA. This year's total number of domestic travelers reflects a 2.2 percent increase over last year and represents the second-highest year-end travel forecast since 2000, when AAA began tracking holiday travel. However, 2019 holds the record for the busiest Christmas and New Year's travel period, with 119 million travelers. "This year-end holiday forecast, with an additional 2.5 million travelers compared to last year, mirrors what AAA Travel has been observing throughout 2023," said Paula Twidale, senior vice president at AAA Travel. "More Americans are investing in travel, despite the cost, to make memories with loved ones and experience new places. AAA expects approximately 104 million people to drive to their holiday destinations, representing a 1.8 percent increase from 2022. This year's projected number of drivers is the second-highest on record, with 2019 holding the top spot when 108 million drivers traveled for the holidays, AAA said.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL appears to be moving on from its failed attempt to acquire Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, according to statements from its executive team during the company's first quarter earnings call May 8. The quarter saw overall positive performance for the company, including record growth in its pipeline and $63.7 million adjusted net income, a 9 percent rise over the same period of last year. The main portion of the call was dedicated to reporting the highlights of the quarter. For example, Choice's EBITDA during the quarter grew to $124.3 million, a first quarter record and a 17 percent increase compared to the same period of 2023. Its global pipeline as of March 31 increased 10 percent to a company record of more than 115,000 rooms, including a 36 percent increase in the global pipeline for conversion rooms. Its domestic rooms pipeline increased by 11 percent since Dec. 31, highlighted by a 59 percent increase for conversion rooms.

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