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THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

A SLIGHT DROP was witnessed in U.S. hotel performance in the first week of April from the week before due to a continuing slump in Spring Break travel, according to STR. Little movement was seen in the top 25 markets as well. Occupancy was 64.1 percent for the week ending April 2, down from 65.5 percent the week before and down 6.4 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $145.74 for the week, dropped from $149.38 the week before and increased 11.7 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $93.48 for the week, dipped from $97.92 the week before and up 4.5 percent from the same period in 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the second week of July, as expected due to a holiday calendar shift, according to STR. The performance was skewed downward due to a comparison with a non-holiday week in 2019. STR said that performance is expected to improve for the remaining weeks of July after two consecutive weeks of lower demand around the Independence Day holiday. Occupancy was 63.3 percent for the week ending July 9, down from 67.3 percent the week before and dropped 14.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $153.71 for the week, slightly up from $153.32 the week before and increased 15.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $97.37 during the week down from $103.24 the week before and down 1.1 percent from 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE saw a decline in the last week of September compared to the previous week, as expected, according to CoStar. However, there was an improvement in year-over-year comparisons, particularly in occupancy due to a favorable Rosh Hashanah calendar shift. Occupancy stood at 66.7 percent for the week ending Sept.30, marking a slight decrease from the preceding week's 68.5 percent, and a 0.8 percent year-over-year rise. ADR was $157.89, down from the prior week's $164.97, but showed a 4.6 percent increase compared to the previous year. RevPAR also experienced a drop to $105.31, compared to the previous week's $112.96, yet still represented a 5.4 percent rise from 2022.

THIRD-PARTY HOSPITALITY management company, Twenty Four Seven Hotels, has opened the 128-room Hyatt House Sacramento/Midtown, a statement said. Twenty Four Seven is led by David Wani as CEO. The adaptive reuse project, owned and developed by Hume Development, Inc., repurposed the former Eastern Star Hall located at Sacramento's art, music and cultural scene. According to the statement, the Romanesque Revival-style building first opened in 1928 as a Masonic women's meeting place and is listed on the National Register of Historic Places. The renovation included the redevelopment of five floors within the original structure, keeping the major architectural features of the historic building intact. "The Hyatt House Sacramento/Midtown is the perfect marriage of the classic and the contemporary, providing the latest amenities and services in a setting that draws heavily from its nearly century-old history to provide a uniquely Sacramento experience," said Amanda Hawkins-Vogel, chief operating officer at Twenty Four Seven Hotels. "This hotel is an extension of our presence in Northern California and marks our first opening this year with two more to come in 2023. As the newest hospitality offering in the city, we expect the Hyatt House Sacramento to quickly take its rightful place as the segment and market leader for business and leisure travelers."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE during the second week of September increased from the previous week, according to CoStar. Yearly comparisons also were mostly up. Occupancy was 67.7 percent for the week ending Sept. 16, up from 60.3 percent the week before but down 2.2 percent from the same time last year. ADR was $161.15 for the week, up from $150.66 the previous week and up 2.3 percent from the previous year. RevPAR for the week was $109.07, up from $90.86 weekly and up 0.1 percent from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Oahu Island, Hawaii, saw the largest year-over-year occupancy increase, up 7.4 percent to 83.6 percent. San Francisco saw the highest jumps in ADR, up 39.7 percent to $345.78, and RevPAR, which rose 33.9 percent to $271.19, due in part to attendance of Dreamforce 2023.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped in the first week of September compared to the week before, according to STR. However, performance during the week improved when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 62.8 percent for the week ending Sept. 3, down from 65 percent the week before and up 3.1 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.14 for the week, almost similar to the week before at $147.16 and increased 20.9 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $92.45 during the week, down from $95.62 the week before and increased 24.6 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Miami reported the largest increase in occupancy to kick off September, up 30.1 percent to 62.2 percent and RevPAR, increased 86.5 percent to $112.37, over 2019.

PERFORMANCE OF U.S. hotels improved in the third week of September compared to the week before and also when compared to 2019, according to STR. Occupancy was 69.6 percent for the week ending Sept. 17, up from 61.7 percent the week before and decreased 2.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $155.58 for the week, increased from $146.80 the week before and increased 15.6 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $108.25 during the week, up from $90.50 the week before and improved 12.9 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Norfolk/Virginia Beach reported the highest occupancy increase during the week, up 6.6 percent to 70.9 percent, over 2019. Miami reported the largest ADR gain, increased 30.7 percent to $177.10, over 2019.

MONITORING GOPPAR PERFORMANCE allows hoteliers to make smart decisions about running their business as they consider all revenue streams and cost variables, according to HotStats. The focus should be on maximizing profit rather than just increasing revenue. GOPPAR is calculated by taking total revenue, subtracting total departmental and undistributed expenses, then dividing by the total number of available rooms, according to a blog post by HotStats. GOPPAR index measurement gives guidance about why a hotel is either outperforming or underperforming its direct competitors, allowing a hotel owner to make critical changes to improve business, it said. In February, GOPPAR for U.S. hotels was down 33 percent compared to February 2019, whereas RevPAR was down 26 percent for the month. It provided evidence that costs were eating farther into the P&L in February.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE decreased in the third week of December compared to the week before, according to STR. However, performance metrics improved when compared to 2019 in part because of a favorable calendar shift. According to STR, the corresponding week in 2019 ended on 21 December, which brought performance down lower for that period. Occupancy was 54.5 percent for the week ending Dec. 17, down from 59.6 percent the week before and an increase of 9.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $135.08 during the week, dropped from $144.79 the week before and up 23.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $73.65 during the week, down from $86.29 the week before and up 35.1 percent from 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the final week of 2022 compared to the week before due to favorable side of a holiday calendar shift, according to STR. When compared to the same period in 2019 performance also increased in the last week of December. According to STR, the comparable week in 2019 covered Dec. 29 to Jan. 4. Occupancy was 54.2 percent for the week ending Dec. 31, up from 43.9 percent the week before and increased 10.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $167.21 during the week, a steep increase from $132.29 the week before and up 21.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $90.63 in the final week of December, rose from $58.04 the week before and up 34.3 percent from 2019.

STR HAS UNVEILED the forward-looking component of its product "Forward STAR" in 104 new markets/submarkets across the U.S. and Canada. Forward STAR, which is presently live in 450 areas around the globe, allows hotel property and portfolio users to benchmark the next 365 days of occupancy on the books against the competition and market. "This launch represents our largest Forward STAR expansion to date and adds significant value to our overall benchmarking offering," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "Adding to the historical data that drives so many operational decisions around the industry, this directly sourced forward data provides intel into where hotels can gain available business, adjust their approach to pricing, and implement actions around market events. When combining historical metrics, profitability data and these forward bookings insights, industry stakeholders are positioned to analyze performance from every angle." According to the statement, Forward STAR was launched in 17 of the country's 25 largest hotel markets, including Las Vegas, New York City, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Boston and Phoenix. More granular submarkets were added with the addition of central business districts in markets such as Austin, Chicago, Nashville and New Orleans as well as airport submarkets in areas such as Miami, San Francisco and Bradenton, Florida.

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index rose again in April, continuing a trend the index has followed for the past four months. Investors' optimism is driven by the travel industry's ongoing recovery due to pent-up demand that is overriding negative influences, such as the Russia/Ukraine war and rising interest rates. Baird/STR went up 0.7 percent during the month, according to STR. The index rose 3.1 percent over the first four months of 2022. In March it increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The index also surpassed both the S&P 500, which dropped 8.8 percent in April, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which went down 4.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 0.5 percent from March, while the hotel REIT sub-index jumped up 1.5 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the fifth week of September as expected with the Rosh Hashanah holiday, according to STR. ADR and RevPAR were up during the week when compared to 2019, but occupancy was down. Occupancy was 66.4 percent for the week ending Oct. 1, down from 70 percent the week before and decreased 2.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $149.71 for the week, dropped from $157.99 the week before and increased 15.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $99.36 during the week, down from $110.60 the week before and up 12.9 percent from 2019. According to STR, there was demand shifts in the southeast region due to Hurricane Ian besides the Rosh Hashanah impact on business travel and groups.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped in May, after rising continuously for five months. Investors grew concerned about macroeconomic slowing and inflationary pressures which led to the broader stock market volatility. Baird/STR dropped 5.8 percent during the month, according to STR. Baird/STR went up 0.7 percent during April. The index decreased 2.8 percent over the first five months of 2022. It increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. Baird/STR index fell behind the S&P 500, which was flat from April, but surpassed the MSCI US REIT Index, which was down 6.3 percent. The hotel brand sub-index fell 6 percent from April, while the Hotel REIT sub-index dipped 4.9 percent during the month.

PROFITS ROSE IN October for U.S. hotels on a month-to-month basis, according to STR. However, the numbers are still down versus 2019, indicating a bump in the road to recovery. GOPPAR for the month was $62.75, according to STR's monthly P&L data release, up from $46.29 in September. TRevPAR for the month was $165.03, compared to $140.94 the month before, and EBITDA PAR was $44.14, up from $30.47 in September. At the same time, labor costs also rose from $47.50 the previous month to $52.17 inOctober. Estimated industrywide gross operating profit was 89 percent of October 2019 levels, after coming in at 97 percent in September. Labor costs reached 91 percent of pre-pandemic comparables in October after reaching a high of 96 percent in September. "October data was important to analyze from multiple angles," said Raquel Ortiz, STR's assistant director of financial performance. "The metrics were up quite a bit from September if you measure by available rooms, but that's to be expected as October is usually a stronger revenue month due to conferences and group travel. When you extrapolate and bring in the comparison to pre-pandemic times, performance was lower. Fortunately, even with less corporate business this year, profit margins (38 percent) still came relatively close to what we saw in 2019 (40.9 percent)."

U.S. HOTEL CONSTRUCTION increased slightly in December after 25 consecutive months of decline, according to STR. Projects in the later stages of development saw a reversal in their decline and luxury projects were up. There are 159,344 rooms in construction during the month, up 0.3 percent, over Dec. 2021. As many as 213,066 rooms are in the final planning state, an increase of 15 percent over last year. STR pipeline data added that 240,092 rooms are under planning, a decline of 15.6 percent. New York City, Phoenix and Dallas are set to see the largest supply percentage increases from current construction. The luxury and upscale segments would see the most supply. "While the overall pipeline continued to contract year over year, December showed strength in the later phases of development," said Alison Hoyt, STR's senior director of consulting. "Over the past year, we've seen late-stage pipeline rooms consistently decline from 2021 levels, while rooms in the planning phase often showed double-digit growth. We started to see a change in this pattern in November, when final planning rooms significantly jumped year over year and planning rooms came down pretty firmly. The same occurred in December, with the only difference being construction increasing slightly over 2021. When looking strictly at volume, the in-construction phase has been fairly stable throughout the year, remaining under 160,000 rooms and showing month-over-month increases from July through October and again in December."

IN JUNE, GOPPAR for U.S. hotels reached its highest level since October 2019, according to STR. All profitability metrics were up in the month compared to the month before. GOPPAR was $91.23 for the month, up from $88.63 reported in May. In April GOPPAR stood at $90.96. EBITDA PAR was $69.53 for June, TRevPAR was $226.10 and labor costs per room were $68.40. "Each of the key bottom-line metrics increased from May due to a rise in room rates as well as improved revenue from F&B and groups," said Joseph Rael, STR's senior director of financial performance. "Profit margins have held strong the past 12 months but have been slightly reduced recently due to rising wages and costs. Hotels have brought back services, amenities and F&B operations that were previously reduced, which have increased profits overall but at lower margins. While F&B revenues remain strong, catering and banquet revenue has lagged with improvement in recent months due to rising group demand."