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DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

U.S. REVPAR IS expected to grow steadily in 2025, supported by urban markets benefiting from improved group and business travel and inbound international recovery, according to a recent CBRE study. The firm expects a 2 percent increase, with occupancy up 23 bps and ADR rising 1.6 percent. RevPAR in 2025 is projected to be 16.6 percent above 2019 levels, reflecting the lodging industry's continued recovery, CBRE said in a statement. "The U.S. hotel market is poised for steady growth in 2025, primarily led by continued outperformance of the urban segment, which should experience RevPAR growth of 2.8 percent this year," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "The sector's resilience and the sustained demand for higher-priced hotels bode well for the upcoming year."

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

IHG HOTELS & RESORTS reported global RevPAR growth of 3 percent for 2024 and 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, with the Americas rising 2.5 percent and 4.6 percent for the year and quarter, respectively. The company acquired Germany-based lifestyle hotel brand Ruby for about $116 million, aiming for global expansion, including the Americas. It opened 371 hotels globally in 2024, up 24 percent, and added 714 to the pipeline, a 34 percent increase, including 16,832 rooms opened and 26,552 signed in the Americas, IHG said in a statement. "Thanks to the hard work and dedication of our teams around the world, 2024 was an excellent year of financial performance, strong growth and important progress against a clear strategy that is unlocking the full potential of our business for all stakeholders," said Elie Maalouf, IHG's CEO. "RevPAR growth accelerated in the fourth quarter, reflecting the breadth of our global footprint and improvements in all three regions. Together with strong system growth, notable margin expansion and the benefit of returning surplus capital through buybacks, we're pleased to report adjusted EPS growth for the year of 15 percent."

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

THE MARTIN LUTHER King Jr. Day calendar shift impacted U.S. hotel performance upward in the third week of January, boosting weekly and year-over-year metrics like occupancy, ADR and RevPAR, according to CoStar. San Francisco led the top 25 markets with the largest gains in all three key metrics. Occupancy increased to 55.8 percent for the week ending Jan. 18, up from 49.2 percent the previous week, reflecting a 6.7 percent year-over-year increase. ADR came in at $155.81 from $144.03, marking a 10 percent rise compared to the same period last year. RevPAR grew to $86.93 from $70.92, a 17.4 percent year-over-year increase. San Francisco led the top 25 markets in year-over-year growth, driven by the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. Occupancy rose 35.9 percent to 71.2 percent, ADR surged 230 percent to $625.98, and RevPAR jumped 348.3 percent to $445.85.

U.S. HOTELS SAW their performance improve for the week ending Feb. 1, with year-over-year gains, according to CoStar. ADR dipped slightly, while occupancy and RevPAR rose week over week. Occupancy increased to 56.5 percent for the week ending Feb. 1, from 54.3 percent the previous week, marking a 2.3 percent year-over-year increase. ADR dropped to $150.25 from $154.21, while still reflecting a 1.8 percent increase compared to the same period last year. RevPAR rose to $84.90 from $83.74, a 4.1 percent year-over-year increase. Minneapolis led the top 25 markets in year-over-year occupancy growth, up 13.6 percent to 47.4 percent, while RevPAR rose 16.7 percent to $56.67. Orlando saw the largest ADR increase, up 7.4 percent to $224.62.

HYATT HOTELS CORP. reported $26 million in net income for the fourth quarter of 2023 and $220 million for the year. Comparable system-wide RevPAR grew by 9.1 percent during the same period and 17 percent for the full year of 2023, outperforming figures from 2022 and exceeding the previous full-year outlook. Adjusted net income reached $68 million in Q4 and $276 million for full-year 2023, Hyatt said in a statement. "The fourth quarter marks the completion of a transformative year and demonstrates the progress towards our strategic vision and earnings evolution," said Mark Hoplamazian, Hyatt's president and CEO. "RevPAR growth exceeded the high end of our guidance range and we had industry-leading net rooms growth for the seventh consecutive year. This led to a record level of fees and the highest free cash flow in Hyatt's history. We returned $500 million to our shareholders and achieved an asset-light earnings mix of approximately 76 percent for the full year, a testament to the successful execution of our strategy."

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS started 2025 with strong January growth, particularly at lower price points, according to The Highland Group. Supply and demand grew much faster than the overall industry, but other performance metrics lagged. The U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: January 2025 reported stronger ADR and the most RevPAR gains for extended-stay hotels compared to corresponding classes. "January was another very good month for extended-stay hotels with positive change in RevPAR in nine of the last ten months and the economy segment continuing to lead RevPAR growth," said Mark Skinner, The Highland Group's partner.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE declined in the third week of December compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons were positive due to the Hanukkah calendar shift and a shortened business travel period between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Occupancy, RevPAR and ADR all saw week-over-week decreases. Occupancy fell to 48.9 percent for the week ending Dec. 21, down from 59.5 percent the previous week but up 11.4 percent year-over-year. ADR declined to $135.79 from $155.21, reflecting a 2.7 percent year-over-year increase. RevPAR dropped to $66.36 from $92.32 week-over-week but showed a 14.3 percent gain compared to the same period in 2023. Tampa, driven partly by hurricane recovery demand, led year-over-year growth among the top 25 markets, with occupancy up 37.9 percent to 71.5 percent and RevPAR up 63.8 percent to $110.51. New York City recorded the highest ADR increase, up 20.1 percent to $351.39.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE maintained a mixed trend compared to the previous week, in line with ongoing seasonal patterns, according to CoStar. However, there were positive year-over-year comparisons, signaling signs of recovery. Occupancy was 62.7 percent for the week ending Sept. 2, down from the prior week, but it showed a 0.2 percent increase compared to 2022, part of the seasonal pattern. ADR stood at $150.52, a slight drop from the previous week, though it displayed a 1.8 percent growth compared to the same period last year. RevPAR was $94.38, lower than the week ago, yet it still indicated a 2 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis recorded significant year-over-year gains in occupancy, surging 19.1 percent to hit 74.4 percent, while RevPAR increased by 26.7 percent, reaching $101.06.

STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped slightly in the second week of August in line with seasonal trends, according to STR. However, ADR and RevPAR increased compared to the same period in 2019. Occupancy was 68.5 percent for the week ending August 13, down from 69.9 percent the week before and dropped 4.6 percent from 2019. ADR was $152.34 for the week, down from $154.48 the week before and increased 15.8 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $104.30 during the week, fell from $108.04 the week before and up 10. 5 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, only Norfolk/Virginia Beach reported an occupancy increase, up 0.4 percent to 80.1 percent, over 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE fell in the first week of August compared to the week before following seasonal patterns, according to STR. However, ADR and RevPAR were up compared to the same period in 2019. Occupancy was 69.9 percent for the week ending August 6, down from 71.9 percent the week before and dropped 5.7 percent from 2019. ADR was $154.48 for the week, decreased from $158.32 the week before and increased 15.1 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $108.04 during the week, down from $113.90 the week before and up 8.5 percent from 2019. St. Louis reported the largest occupancy increase during the week, up 7.1. percent to 75.9 percent, over 2019, among STR's top 25 markets. Oahu Island (84.6 percent) led major markets in absolute occupancy during the first week of August, followed by Seattle (84.8 percent), and San Diego (83.8 percent).

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE remained relatively flat during the third week of January, according to STR. Tampa, Florida, led the top 25 markets in terms of occupancy. Occupancy was 48.7 percent for the week ending Jan. 22, and it was 48.8 percent the week before. It was down 15.9 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $122.17 for the week, almost same as the week before at $122.12 and down 1.4 percent from two years ago. RevPAR reached $59.52, it was $59.57 the prior week and down 17.1 percent from the same period two years ago. None of STR's to 25 markets recorded an occupancy increase during the period compared to two years ago. Tampa came closest to its pre-pandemic comparable in the third week, down just 1.7 percent to 72.1 percent. It also posted the largest ADR rise, up 14 percent to $151.74. The only RevPAR increase was also registered at Tampa, up 12 percent to $109.39.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE persisted in its downward trend during the last week of August, influenced by seasonal patterns in contrast to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-on-year comparisons improved while Maui Island, Hawaii, still recovering from deadly wildfires, showed signs of recovery. Occupancy came in at 65 percent for the week ending Aug. 26, down from the previous week's 67 percent, but it showed a 0.4 percent increase compared to 2022. ADR stood at $150.23, a decrease from the previous week's $154.10, though it displayed a 1.7 percent growth compared to the same period last year. RevPAR was $97.62, below the prior week's $103.22, yet it still indicated a 2.1 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Las Vegas achieved the largest year-over-year occupancy increase as August ended, rising by 7.9 percent to reach 76.3 percent. Houston achieved the highest ADR at $112.08, with a 10.5 percent increase, and the highest RevPAR at $64.45, reflecting a 17.8 percent increase.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved for the week ending March 1 compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. Occupancy and RevPAR increased week over week, while ADR saw a slight decline, but all three metrics showed year-over-year growth. Occupancy increased to 62.8 percent for the week ending March 1, up from 60.3 percent the previous week and 0.4 percentage points higher year over year. ADR declined slightly to $159.26 from $159.90 the prior week but remained 2.7 percent higher than the same week last year. RevPAR increased to $100.06 from $96.49, reflecting a 3.1 percent gain compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, St. Louis recorded the highest year-over-year occupancy gain, rising 12.1 percentage points to 59.4 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE showed mixed results in the fourth week of January due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday shift, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, declined from the previous week, while ADR rose year-over-year. Occupancy declined to 54.3 percent for the week ending Jan. 25, from 55.8 percent the previous week, reflecting a 3.4 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR dropped to $154.21 from $155.81, also down 3.4 percent compared to the same period last year. RevPAR fell to $83.74 from $86.93, marking a 0.2 percent year-over-year decline. Among the top 25 markets, Los Angeles saw the highest year-over-year occupancy growth, up 6 percent to 68.7 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE has increased in the second week of September compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons remained mixed. Occupancy stood at 68.5 percent for the week ending on Oct. 14, a slight uptick from the previous week's 67.8 percent, and a marginal year-over-year decline of 2.3 percent. ADR increased to $164.25, up from the previous week's $163.19, marking a 3.2 percent surge compared to the previous year. RevPAR also showed improvement, reaching $112.51, surpassing the previous week's $110.68, and reflecting a 0.8 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Oahu Island experienced the highest year-over-year growth in occupancy, rising by 17.8 percent to reach 85.2 percent, while RevPAR increased by 29.7 percent to $243.22.