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STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."

The Admiralty Inn & Suites is now open in East Falmouth, Massachusetts. The 97-room upper-midscale hotel, part of The Red Collection, is owned by Sai Vani Corp. led by Mark Patel. It is the second hotel in Cape Cod to be in Red Roof's Red Collection, joining the Mariner Resort in Yarmouth, Massachusetts, Red Roof said in a statement. The recently renovated hotel is near Cape Cod attractions like Falmouth Heights Beach, Martha's Vineyard, Nobska Point Lighthouse, Historic Falmouth Village, Highfield Hall & Gardens, Cape Cod Children's Museum, Woods Hole Science Aquarium, Old Silver Beach, Shining Sea Bikeway, and Beebe Woods, the statement said. The property features a business center, onsite fitness facility, heated indoor swimming pool and seasonal outdoor pool. "Cape Cod is a sought-after region for development and with the opening of the Admiralty Inn & Suites Red Roof now has two Red Collection properties in the region," said Matthew Hostetler, Red Roof's chief development officer. "The brand's offerings-increased amenities at an affordable price point-resonate with consumers and we'll continue our efforts to meet guest demand for Red Roof hotels across the country."

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MOST ECONOMY AND MID-PRICE extended-stay hotels' performance in September was down compared to August, according to a report from hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. However, the bottom-up recovery and room supply distribution geographically are hindering the upscale segment's recovery. Relative to other classes of hotels, mid-price extended-stay hotels recorded the largest gain in September, the U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: September 2021 report said. Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR indices for upscale extended-stay hotels were about the same in September as in August but the decline in absolute ADR resulted in the segment's revenue recovery falling below 95 percent. Economy and mid-price segments both reported about a three-point gain in ADR recovery index in September compared to the month before. The upscale segment's ADR remained unchanged, the report said. "The mid-price extended-stay segment's gains in both ADR and occupancy pushed it slightly ahead of the upscale segment in terms of RevPAR growth. Because the overall hotel industry lost far more RevPAR than extended-stay hotels, its RevPAR growth in September 2021 compared to last year was 85 percent more than extended-stay hotels," the report added.

THE OMICRON COVID-19 variant could derail the hotel industry's fledgling recovery if countries like the U.S. move forward to tighten testing policies, according to HotStats. Future hotel bookings, meetings and other hotel-related activity will be impacted by the expectation of travel impediments, whether self-imposed, company-imposed or government-mandated, it added. In the U.S., major indices were still down double digits in October 2021 compared to same month two years ago, according to a blog post by HotStats. "Since a rapid uptick in occupancy from the beginning of the year through the summer, hitting an apex in July, occupancy in the U.S. has since more or less flatlined, a signal that the leisure boom could not be sustained at the same levels prior," said HotStats. "Though much maligned, there is propitious data surfacing in corporate travel. In October, corporate ADR was $7 higher than in October 2019 and $35 higher than in the previous month. Corporate volume mix, defined as the proportion of rooms sold at the corporate rate compared to total rooms sold, has grown 6 percentage points since July."

The GLō Tulsa East Route 66 is now open in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the first of Best Western Hotels & Resorts' new-build boutique brand to open in the state. It is owned by Champion Hotels Group, led by founder Champak "Champ" Patel, and Jain Hotels led by CEO Jayesh Jain. The 70-room hotel is near the Tulsa Port of Catoosa and Tulsa International Airport. Other nearby attractions include the Tulsa Zoo, Oklahoma Aquarium, ONEOK Field, BOK Center, The Gathering Place, LaFortune Park, Rogers Point park and the Catoosa Activity Center. Hotel amenities include a meeting area and workspaces as well as a fitness center. "This hotel is the perfect addition to the Catoosa and Tulsa area," Patel said. "We are thrilled to introduce the GLō brand to Oklahoma," Jain said. "This property provides the ideal boutique look and feel with the modern amenities and service offerings today's travelers expect."

EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS experienced limited growth in July, reflecting the summer travel season's tendency to favor the overall hotel industry more than extended-stay establishments, according to The Highland Group. Total hotels reported a smaller decrease in occupancy and a slightly higher increase in ADR compared to all extended-stay hotels in July 2022. According to Highland, Extended-stay hotels performed similarly to the preceding three months in July. The economy segment reported a decrease in RevPAR, while upscale extended-stay hotels saw the strongest RevPAR increase. However, ADR growth across extended-stay segments has noticeably narrowed over the last three months. For the second consecutive month, the economy segment achieved faster ADR gains compared to mid-price extended-stay hotels. "Extended-stay hotels' 9.2 percentage-point occupancy premium above the overall hotel industry is slightly below the long-term annual average range but typical for the summer travel season," said Mark Skinner, partner at The Highland Group.

Stonehill CRE, the real estate arm of Stonehill, has finalized a $52 million senior loan agreement with Starpoint Properties to fund the construction of Lotus Point Apartments, a 245-unit multifamily development in Mesa, Arizona, within the Phoenix Metropolitan Statistical Area. The construction of this four-story building is scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2025, Stonehill said in a statement. "This investment mirrors our sought-after strategy - a quality property with an experienced sponsor in a growing market," said Taylor Pike, senior vice president at Stonehill CRE. "Phoenix stands as a strong job growth market due to diverse employment opportunities. Single-family home development has not kept pace, and with rising mortgage rates, well-located multifamily projects will remain in high demand." This 6-acre site, adjacent to a retail center and within walking distance of the metro light rail, will provide studio, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom units, along with amenities such as a fitness center, clubhouse, co-working area, pool, and parking options, Stonehill said.

THE HOTEL PROPERTY types most associated with business travel, upper upscale hotels, are well represented in the U.S. hotel construction pipeline. The volume of projects in the segment points to confidence in the future of business travel, according to STR. "Upper upscale saw the slowest recovery, but a steady climb in performance and the business travel indicators have supported developer confidence in the segment," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president for analytics. "The more than 23,000 upper upscale rooms in construction right now represent 3.4 percent of the segment's existing supply. That is well above the long-term growth average, up 2 percent in the U.S." According to STR, a total 154,284 rooms were under construction in March, down 0.5 percent compared to the same period last year. As many as 239,995 rooms are in the final planning state, an increase of 34.6 percent over last year. STR pipeline data showed that 232,517 rooms are under planning, a decline of 21.6 percent compared to March 2022. After three consecutive month-over-month increases, the overall number of U.S. rooms in construction fell slightly in March, which aligns with patterns in previous years. Among the chain scale segments, luxury shows the highest number of rooms as a percentage of existing supply. Luxury segment reports the highest increase in hotel construction in March, up 5.2 percent containing 7,136 rooms, followed by upscale, up 4.1 percent with 36,089 rooms and upper midscale, increased 3.7 percent containing 43,470 rooms.

A NEW JERSEY bill that will reform the franchise business model in that state took another step forward today, moving from the Assembly to the Senate, and supporters, including AAHOA, expect it to become law this year. However, the American Hotel & Lodging Association has come out in opposition to the law, saying it would "undermine the foundation of hotel franchising." New Jersey Assembly Bill A1958 would make changes to the New Jersey Franchise Practices Act. AAHOA has been supporting the bill, saying it mirrors several concerns included in its 12 Points of Fair Franchising. Specifically, it would reform rules for mandated vendors, rebates, loyalty programs and new fees, AAHOA said in a statement. "New Jersey has long been a state with a strong entrepreneurial culture that has been welcoming to immigrants, including many AAHOA members," said AAHOA Chairman Bharat Patel. "The state Assembly recognized that and took a step toward making New Jersey a better place for small businesses with today's vote to advance fair franchising principles. New Jersey can be an example to the nation for supporting franchising practices that allow hotel owners to achieve the American dream." AAHOA supports the preference of certified women-owned, minority-owned and veteran-owned businesses to serve as the mandated and preferred vendors for the franchise business model.

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

HOTEL INVESTMENT AND management company Banyan Group has announced that its $35 million Banyan Lodging Enhanced Value Fund has been fully subscribed. The final participants were domestic and foreign families, a statement said. The BLEV, or "Believe" fund offers an opportunity for investors to purchase hotels that have been impacted by the on-going COVID-19 crisis, the statement added. "Interest in our BLEV fund has risen steadily since our original announcement earlier this year, as evidenced by how quickly the raise was completed, to the point where we now actually are over-subscribed," said Rakesh Chauhan, managing partner and CEO, Banyan Investment Group. "We already have our sights on several respected hotels in strong markets with high barriers to entry and multiple demand generators to help offset any potential economic headwinds that could arise in the future. We look forward to a successful run with our partners and fully expect this to be a profitable endeavor for all involved."

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

A NEW SURVEY finds that nearly three in five U.S. travelers plan to "trip-stack" this holiday season by adding another destination or trip directly following or leading up to their existing travel plans. The survey by G6 Hospitality's economy lodging brand Motel 6, also found that most travelers will be looking to try something new. The fifth annual holiday survey also found that, along with plans to trip-stack, 67 percent of respondents said that holidays are the only time when friends and family are available to travel. More than half, 52 percent, of those surveyed plan to cross an average of three state lines while on their winter trips and 46 percent plan to stay at a hotel or motel for their trips, the survey, which received response from 2,000 Americans, pointed out.

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

Matthew Hostetler, chief development officer at Red Roof, has been operating outside his wheelhouse for about 18 years now. In this installment of Asian Hospitality's Leadership Series, he explains how he does it all with a smile on his face. Hostetler was at the Hunter Hotel Conference in March in Atlanta when he took time to talk about his history in the hotel business along with the current status of Red Roof. Topics also included AAHOA's 12 Points of Fair Franchising, the company's preparations for possible economic headwinds this year and the success of Red Roof's newest brand. Same job, different industry In 2002, Hostetler was recruited by Cendant Hotel Group, which is now Wyndham Hotel Group, to conduct franchise sales under Phil Hugh, who was at that time senior vice president for franchise sales. That was when he stepped out of his comfort zone. "I said yes to an opportunity that was way, in sales was not outside of my wheelhouse, but outside of my industry," Hostetler said. "I was in transportation for 15 years before that. So yeah, that definitely outside the wheelhouse." In 2014, he joined Red Roof as the senior vice president of development, again working under Hugh. In 2020, when Hugh left the company, Hostetler became chief development officer. Now he's settled into the job. "I love the hotel business. I love hospitality. I love the people in this business, how they are so entrepreneurial," Hostetler said. But there's also so people oriented as well. That's what attracts talent so much right? Hospitality. Everyone has a smile on their face most of the time."

A NEW SURVEY finds that U.S. travelers are getting the urge to explore and acting on that spur-of-the-moment travel bug as temperatures begin to rise. Around 67 percent of Americans with travel plans this year say that the best trips are spontaneous and decided on a whim, a study by Motel 6 and Studio 6 found. The study, which surveyed more than 2,000 Americans who plan to travel this year, also found that almost three-quarters, or 73 percent, would be willing to visit a surprise destination. "Taking a last-minute getaway is a great way to add some joy into your life," said Julie Arrowsmith, president/interim CEO, G6 Hospitality, parent company of Motel 6 and Studio 6. Traveling distances, with companions According to the survey, seven in 10 (70 percent) U.S. travelers say they are indulging in longer excursions by traveling more than three hours from their hometown. When asked about companions, more than three in four (78 percent) travelers prefer to journey with other people, while almost one in three (28 percent) are planning to explore with pets, it added. Off-season and longer trips With impromptu trips on the rise, more than two in five (44 percent) vacationers admit they are switching up their travel experiences this year. Most notably, the typical "travel season" may be a thing of the past, with almost half (47 percent) indicating that they are just as likely to get away during the off-season or weekdays as opposed to peak times like holidays and weekends. Another 32 percent are taking longer vacations than ever before, the study pointed out.

ZERO-BASED BUDGETING is essential for hotels amid near- and long-term volatility, according to a blog from HotStats. The blog also suggested that hoteliers need to turn to other futureproofing or future-cushioning methods. In a recent blog post, Michael Grove, COO, HotStats said that zero-based budgeting, a method of budgeting in which all expenses must be justified for each new period starting from a zero base, is very necessary given the fluidity of the global economy and, ultimately, its impact on hotel operations. At the recent 2022 M3 Partners meeting, Grove first illustrated the pandemic's effect on worldwide profits and how it's changed the landscape. "It's worth reminding ourselves of the importance and magnitude of the U.S. hotel industry's share on the global scale, which has only grown during the pandemic," Grove said in the article. According to the blog post, almost half of global profits are produced in the U.S. and that share only rose as the pandemic slackened. "A massive 47 percent of hotel profits are achieved in the U.S., up 6.6 percentage points since 2019, the result of myriad variables, including a large domestic market and staycation trend," Grove said in the post. "Meanwhile, severe lockdowns and restrictions in Europe and Asia-Pacific sent their percentages down as the Middle East received a boost in the fourth quarter 2021 from Expo 2020 in Dubai."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped in the first week of July when compared to the week before mainly due to decline in demand on account of the Independence Day holiday, according to STR. STR predicted that occupancy and demand are likely to fall again for a week before strengthening in the remaining weeks of July. Occupancy in the week before the holiday fell by more than four percentage points with most of the losses beginning on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. Since 2000, the fourth of July holiday has fallen on a Monday seven times, including in 2021 and in 2016. Occupancy was 67.3 percent for the week ending July 2, down from 72.3 percent the week before and dropped 2.9 percent from 2019. ADR was $153.32 for the week, declined from $157.05 the week before and increased 19.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $103.24 during the week down from $113.55 the week before and up 23.1 percent from 2019.