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MOST ECONOMY AND MID-PRICE extended-stay hotels' performance in September was down compared to August, according to a report from hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. However, the bottom-up recovery and room supply distribution geographically are hindering the upscale segment's recovery. Relative to other classes of hotels, mid-price extended-stay hotels recorded the largest gain in September, the U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: September 2021 report said. Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR indices for upscale extended-stay hotels were about the same in September as in August but the decline in absolute ADR resulted in the segment's revenue recovery falling below 95 percent. Economy and mid-price segments both reported about a three-point gain in ADR recovery index in September compared to the month before. The upscale segment's ADR remained unchanged, the report said. "The mid-price extended-stay segment's gains in both ADR and occupancy pushed it slightly ahead of the upscale segment in terms of RevPAR growth. Because the overall hotel industry lost far more RevPAR than extended-stay hotels, its RevPAR growth in September 2021 compared to last year was 85 percent more than extended-stay hotels," the report added.

THE STATE OF the U.S. hotel industry is strong going into 2024, according to American Hotel & Lodging Association's 2024 State of the Hotel Industry report. Average hotel occupancy is expected to reach nearly 63.6 percent in 2024, a slight increase from the 62.9 percent in 2023 but below the 65.8 percent rate recorded in 2019. Nominal RevPAR is also anticipated to rise to $101.82 in 2024, up by 4 percent from 2023 and over 17 percent from 2019. AHLA projects hotels will pay employees a record sum of over $123 billion in wages, salaries, and compensation in 2024, surpassing $118 billion in 2023 and $102 billion in 2019. Hotels are expected to add approximately 45,000 employees this year, while the industry's workforce remains nearly 225,000 below the almost 2.37 million employed in 2019, the AHLA report said. The report, projecting persistent challenges for hoteliers in the face of nationwide labor shortages as they approach 2019 occupancy levels, draws on data and analysis from Oxford Economics. It was developed in collaboration with AHLA Premier Partners: STR, Avendra, Ecolab, Encore, JLL, Oracle, and Towne Park.

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will continue its recovery in 2022, but the path will be uneven and potentially volatile, according to a report by the American Hotel & Lodging Association. It added that a full recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will take several years. AHLA's 2022 State of the Hotel Industry report also revealed shifts in consumer and business sentiment. The report was created in collaboration with Accenture and is based on data and forecasts from Oxford Economics and STR. According to the report, hotel occupancy rates and room revenue will approach 2019 levels this year, but the outlook for ancillary revenue, which includes F&B and meeting space, is less optimistic. Leisure travelers will continue to drive recovery, the report added. Hotels lost a collective $111.8 billion in room revenue alone during 2020 and 2021. Business travelers made up 52.5 percent of industry room revenue in 2019 and it will be 43.6 percent in 2022. Business travel will be down more than 20 percent for much of the year, the report said. As the full effects of Omicron is not yet known, just 58 percent of meetings and events are expected to return. AHLA report said that the rapid rise of bleisure travelers-those who blend business and leisure travel-are impacting hotel operations now. A recent study revealed that 89 percent of business travelers wanted to add a private holiday to their business trips in the next twelve months.

ANNUAL CHANGES IN U.S. hotel utility costs and in the Consumer Price Index, or inflation, have historically proven to be strongly correlated. As of August 2022, CBRE is forecasting CPI growth to be 7.7 percent in 2022, followed by another 3.6 percent in 2023. Since inflation has averaged just 2.2 percent since 2000, these inflation projections have hoteliers concerned about operating costs. Given that rising energy costs are a significant driver of the current rise in CPI, hotel managers are especially worried about utility department expenses. Over the past 50 years, utility department expenses have averaged between 3 and 4 percent of total revenue, indicating that hotel managers have been successfully controlling energy costs in the face of fluctuating business volumes. This is particularly commendable given the highly fixed nature of utility expenses. To provide some context to the current challenging environment, we studied recent trends in hotel utility department expenses. The data come from a sample of more than 2,800 U.S. hotels that reported utility department expenses each year from 2015 through 2021 for CBRE's annual "Trends in the Hotel Industry" survey. In 2021 the properties in the sample averaged 209 rooms in size, with an annual occupancy rate of 54.2 percent and an average daily rate of $152.70.

THE OMICRON COVID-19 variant could derail the hotel industry's fledgling recovery if countries like the U.S. move forward to tighten testing policies, according to HotStats. Future hotel bookings, meetings and other hotel-related activity will be impacted by the expectation of travel impediments, whether self-imposed, company-imposed or government-mandated, it added. In the U.S., major indices were still down double digits in October 2021 compared to same month two years ago, according to a blog post by HotStats. "Since a rapid uptick in occupancy from the beginning of the year through the summer, hitting an apex in July, occupancy in the U.S. has since more or less flatlined, a signal that the leisure boom could not be sustained at the same levels prior," said HotStats. "Though much maligned, there is propitious data surfacing in corporate travel. In October, corporate ADR was $7 higher than in October 2019 and $35 higher than in the previous month. Corporate volume mix, defined as the proportion of rooms sold at the corporate rate compared to total rooms sold, has grown 6 percentage points since July."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the second week of June compared to the previous week, showing mixed year-over-year results, according to CoStar. All key metrics, including occupancy, RevPAR and ADR, increased compared to the prior week. Occupancy rose to 70.3 percent for the week ending June 15, up from 69.1 percent the previous week, despite a slight 0.6 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR increased to $161.70 from $160.90, a 0.9 percent rise compared to last year. RevPAR increased to $113.62 from $111.26 the previous week, marking a 0.3 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, San Francisco recorded the highest year-over-year increases: occupancy rose 14.8 percent to 71.1 percent, ADR increased 11.3 percent to $226.70, and RevPAR grew 30.3 percent to $179.97. The market's performance was boosted by the Data + AI Summit.

HELPED BY THE onset of spring break travel, U.S. hotels' performance bettered in the second week of March from the previous week, according to STR's latest data through 11 March. The top 25 markets were up on a weekly basis but still behind 2019 levels. Occupancy for the week ending March 11 came in at 64.7 percent up from 62.8 percent the week before, 2.8 percent more than the comparable week in 2022 and 7.5 percent below the comparable week in 2019. ADR stood at $158.20, up from $151.35 the previous week and also up 8.1 percent and 16.6 percent over the same month in 2022 and 2019, respectively. RevPAR was reported at $102.38, up from $95.06 the previous week, and an increase of 11.1 percent and 7.8 percent over the same month in 2022 and 2019. Among the top 25 markets, Washington, D.C., witnessed the highest year-over-year occupancy increase compared to 2019, up 21.8 percent to 67.6 percent. However, none of the Top 25 Markets saw an occupancy lift over 2019. Meanwhile, D.C. also registered the most substantial ADR increase at $183.86 against 2019, up 23.4 percent. D.C.'s RevPAR rate also climbed up 50.2 percent to $124.33 year-over-year. Anaheim reported the highest ADR increase for spring break week, up 51.4 percent to US$245.62 and RevPAR rose 42.2 percent to $189.81, when measuring against 2019.

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE has increased from the previous week, aligning with the extended holiday weekend, while year-over-year comparisons also continue to show positive trends, according to CoStar. The percentage changes showed positivity on weekdays due to comparisons with the Yom Kippur period from the previous year, but year-over-year occupancy rates still experienced a decline. Occupancy stood at 67.8 percent for the week ending on Oct. 7, a slight rise from the preceding week's 66.7 percent, with a marginal year-over-year decline of 0.2 percent, according to CoStar. ADR was $163.19, showing an increase from the previous week's $157.89 and a notable 5.4 percent surge compared to the previous year. RevPAR also saw an uptick to $110.68, surpassing the previous week's $105.31, and reflecting a 5.2 percent rise from 2022.

U.S. hotel performance has declined in the fourth week of October compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons revealed positive results. Occupancy came in at 66 percent for the week ending Oct. 28, slightly lower than the previous week's 69 percent, but with year-over-year growth of 0.7 percent. ADR dropped to $160.89, down from the previous week's $165.32, yet showing a notable 3.9 percent increase from the previous year. Similarly, RevPAR saw a decrease, reaching $106.16 compared to the previous week's $114.04, but reflecting a solid 4.6 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis saw the largest year-over-year increase in occupancy, rising by 12.7 percent to reach 64.5 percent.

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."