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A CONTINUING SENSE of optimism about the nation's recovery among investors sent the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index up in October. Hotel brands led the increase as concerns about the COVID-19 Delta variant began to ease. The Baird/STR index rose 6.8 percent during the month, and it also was up 20.7 percent year to date through the first 10 months of 2021. The index rose 5.2 percent during September compared to August. Still, the index was behind both the S&P 500, which rose 6.9 percent in October, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 7.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 9 percent from September while the hotel REIT sub-index increased 0.5 percent. "Hotel stocks increased for the second straight month, but performance was led by the hotel brands once again," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "The hotel REITs were marginally higher in October, while the hotel brands were the absolute and relative winners. Delta variant concerns are in the rearview mirror now, and investors are looking forward to the recovery continuing in 2022, particularly in some of the harder hit segments, markets, and regions that are poised to rebound strongly."

A SLIGHT DROP was witnessed in U.S. hotel performance in the first week of April from the week before due to a continuing slump in Spring Break travel, according to STR. Little movement was seen in the top 25 markets as well. Occupancy was 64.1 percent for the week ending April 2, down from 65.5 percent the week before and down 6.4 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $145.74 for the week, dropped from $149.38 the week before and increased 11.7 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $93.48 for the week, dipped from $97.92 the week before and up 4.5 percent from the same period in 2019.

THE U.S. SENATE and House passed a $1.5 trillion government-funding package last week that includes some much-needed relief for the hospitality industry, two associations said. However, the spending bill also missing some elements industry advocates have pressed Congress and the administration to pass. The omnibus spending bill passed on a 68-31 vote in the Senate and is now awaiting President Biden's signature, according to government focused news agency RollCall. com. At 2,700-pages, the omnibus contains all 12 fiscal 2022 spending bills and has been in negotiations for five months. The bill includes the Restoring Brand USA Act that will provide $250 million in relief funding to the destination marketing organization that promotes travel to the U.S. The U.S. Travel Association welcomed that fact in a statement from Roger Dow, USTA president and CEO.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose in March, continuing a trend from the previous month. Still, continued growth remains at risk by factors such as inflation and political unrest. The index increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. It rose 2.4 percent year to date through the first three months of 2022. However, Baird/STR fell behind both the S&P 500, up 3.6 percent in March, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 5.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 1.4 percent from February, while the Hotel REIT sub-index jumped 5.1 percent. "Hotel stocks increased in March but underperformed their benchmarks as stock market volatility eased and geopolitical concerns did not worsen," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Underlying hotel fundamentals continued to improve in March, and the outlook appears more favorable today than just one month ago despite all of the background noise in the stock market and with interest rates on the rise. Higher gas prices and heightened concerns about a slower growth backdrop have been topical with investors lately, but broader travel momentum and pent-up demand should keep the lodging recovery going over the near term, in our opinion."

BUSINESS CONTINUED TO improve in the second week of April for U.S. hotels, according to STR. Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR all rose on a weekly basis, and the last two were up compared to the same time in 2019. Occupancy was 66.4 percent for the week ending April 9, up from 64.1 percent the week before but down 4.7 percent from 2019. ADR was $150.45 for the week, up from $145.74 the previous week and up 10.6 percent from 2019. RevPAR reached $99.93, a rise from $93.48 weekly and up 5.4 percent from three years ago. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa saw the highest occupancy increase over 2019, up 6.2 percent to 84 percent. Minneapolis had the largest occupancy decrease from three years ago, down 29.5 percent to 51.4 percent.

U.S. hotel performance improved in the fourth week of April from the week before, according to STR. The top 25 markets saw improvement as well. Occupancy was 65.8 percent for the week ending April 23, up from 62 percent the week before and down 4.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $148.35 for the week, increased from $147.25 the week before and up 15.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $97.66 during the week, up from $91.25 the week before and rose 10.5 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa saw the highest occupancy, up 3.4 percent to 78.1 percent and ADR, increased 38.5 percent to $203.40, over 2019. Minneapolis experienced the largest occupancy decrease, dipped 21.1 percent to 53.8 percent, from 2019.

REFLECTING THE POSITIVE side of the Easter calendar shift, U.S. hotel performance during the second week of April increased from the previous week, according to STR. Year-over-year comparisons also were up. Occupancy was 64.2 percent for the week ending April 15, up from 61.3 percent the week before, and increased 3.7 percent than the comparable week in 2022. ADR stood at $155.33, up from $153.3 the week before, jumped 4.7 percent against 2022. RevPAR came in at $99.67, increased from $94 in the last week, and rose 8.6 percent over the same month in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis saw the highest year-over-year increase in occupancy, up 17.4 percent to 54.5 percent during the Easter week. Washington, D.C., reported the most substantial ADR, up 22.5 percent to $200.99, and RevPAR, increased 38.1 percent to $146.73 year-over-year.

THE HOTEL PROPERTY types most associated with business travel, upper upscale hotels, are well represented in the U.S. hotel construction pipeline. The volume of projects in the segment points to confidence in the future of business travel, according to STR. "Upper upscale saw the slowest recovery, but a steady climb in performance and the business travel indicators have supported developer confidence in the segment," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president for analytics. "The more than 23,000 upper upscale rooms in construction right now represent 3.4 percent of the segment's existing supply. That is well above the long-term growth average, up 2 percent in the U.S." According to STR, a total 154,284 rooms were under construction in March, down 0.5 percent compared to the same period last year. As many as 239,995 rooms are in the final planning state, an increase of 34.6 percent over last year. STR pipeline data showed that 232,517 rooms are under planning, a decline of 21.6 percent compared to March 2022. After three consecutive month-over-month increases, the overall number of U.S. rooms in construction fell slightly in March, which aligns with patterns in previous years. Among the chain scale segments, luxury shows the highest number of rooms as a percentage of existing supply. Luxury segment reports the highest increase in hotel construction in March, up 5.2 percent containing 7,136 rooms, followed by upscale, up 4.1 percent with 36,089 rooms and upper midscale, increased 3.7 percent containing 43,470 rooms.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased from the previous week and showed improved comparisons year-over-year, according to STR. Meanwhile, U.S. occupancy reached the second highest level for any week this year. Occupancy came in at 67.5 percent for the week ending May 20, up from 65.1 percent the week before and down 1.5 percent over the comparable week in 2022. ADR was $158.53, up from $154.90 the previous week, and increased 3.6 percent from 2022. RevPAR stood at $106.98 in the recent week, jumped from $100.81 the week before and increased 2.1 percent against the same period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Washington, D.C., saw the highest year-over-year increases in each of the three key performance metrics: occupancy rose 9.3 percent to 83.2 percent, while ADR increased 16.2 percent to $220.58. RevPAR also rose 27 percent to $183.60. Furthermore, the weekly occupancy level was the highest in the market since the start of the pandemic, STR said.

AN ESTIMATED 54.6 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving, according to AAA Travel, 1.5 percent more than last year and 98 percent of pre-pandemic volumes. AAA is projecting this year will be the third busiest for Thanksgiving travel since AAA started tracking in 2000. Continuing a years-long trend, most travelers, nearly 49 million, will drive to their holiday destinations between Nov. 23 to 27, according to AAA. That number is up 0.4 percent from 2021 but still 2.5 percent below 2019 levels. "Families and friends are eager to spend time together this Thanksgiving, one of the busiest for travel in the past two decades," says Paula Twidale, AAA's Senior Vice President of Travel. "Plan ahead and pack your patience, whether you're driving or flying."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE was down in the first week of 2023 compared to the week before mainly due to post-holiday seasonality and an unfavorable calendar shift, according to STR. Performance metrics for the week was down compared to same period in 2019 as it was a full business week. Occupancy was 47.2 percent for the week ending Jan. 7, down from 54.2 percent the week before and decreased 11.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $142.82 during the week, decreased from $167.21 the week before and up 11.2 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $67.40 in the first week of 2023, dipped from $90.63 the week before and down 1.5 percent from 2019. Orlando was the only STR top 25 market to report an occupancy increase, 2 percent to 71.3 percent, over 2019.

U.S. HOTELS REPORTED improved performance in the second week of January compared to the week before, according to STR. The weekly performance was mixed over the same period in 2019. Occupancy was 54.8 percent for the week ending Jan. 14, up from 47.2 percent the week before and decreased 5.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $144.81 during the week, increased from $142.82 the week before and up 15.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $79.38 in the second week of 2023, sharp increase from $67.40 the week before and up 9.3 percent from January 2019. None of STR's top 25 markets reported an occupancy increase during the week when compared to 2019. However, Dallas came closest to its 2019 comparable, down just 2.1 percent to 69 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE fell in the first week of August compared to the week before following seasonal patterns, according to STR. However, ADR and RevPAR were up compared to the same period in 2019. Occupancy was 69.9 percent for the week ending August 6, down from 71.9 percent the week before and dropped 5.7 percent from 2019. ADR was $154.48 for the week, decreased from $158.32 the week before and increased 15.1 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $108.04 during the week, down from $113.90 the week before and up 8.5 percent from 2019. St. Louis reported the largest occupancy increase during the week, up 7.1. percent to 75.9 percent, over 2019, among STR's top 25 markets. Oahu Island (84.6 percent) led major markets in absolute occupancy during the first week of August, followed by Seattle (84.8 percent), and San Diego (83.8 percent).

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped slightly in the second week of August in line with seasonal trends, according to STR. However, ADR and RevPAR increased compared to the same period in 2019. Occupancy was 68.5 percent for the week ending August 13, down from 69.9 percent the week before and dropped 4.6 percent from 2019. ADR was $152.34 for the week, down from $154.48 the week before and increased 15.8 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $104.30 during the week, fell from $108.04 the week before and up 10. 5 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, only Norfolk/Virginia Beach reported an occupancy increase, up 0.4 percent to 80.1 percent, over 2019.

CBRE HOTELS RESEARCH has once again revised its forecast for the second half of 2022. The revision is mainly due to strong gains in the second quarter and expectations of positive growth next year. RevPAR for the second half of the year will rise to 14.7 percent year-over-year, up from the previous projection of 13.1 percent in May, according to CBRE. The reasons for the spike are a 3.5 percentage point increase in ADR and a 2.2 percentage point reduction in CBRE's demand forecast. Second quarter RevPAR reached $98.84, up 38 percent year over-year, and an all-time quarterly high at 106 percent of 2019's level. RevPAR growth was driven mainly by ADR, up 25.5 percent, followed by occupancy, up 9.9 percent.

THE AMERICAN FRANCHISE business model is in trouble, according to a recent survey commissioned by AAHOA. The survey was inspired by a webinar AAHOA co-sponsored to gather public comment on the state of franchising for the Federal Trade Commission. The survey found that only 5 percent of the franchisee respondents are satisfied that their current franchise agreements provide fair terms representing a balanced relationship between themselves and their franchiser. Also, 72.6 percent of respondents would "possibly" or "probably" terminate their current franchised business within the next year if they could do so without penalty. "Franchising is in dire straits unless changes are made," said Laura Lee Blake, AAHOA president and CEO. "Franchising is still a powerful tool for economic mobility for America's small-business owners, including AAHOA Members. But franchising only works when both franchisors and franchisees are committed to its success, which requires transparency, fairness, and sustainable business practices. As this survey shows, there is much room for improvement when it comes to relationships that allow our small-business owners to thrive." Blake recently wrote an editorial supporting AAHOA's 12 Points of Fair Franchising and its promotion of a proposed New Jersey law that would reform that state's franchising regulations in ways similar to the 12 points. Several large hotel companies, including Choice Hotels International and Marriott International, protested AAHOA's recent annual convention in protest to its position on franchise reform The survey was conducted among owners of hotels, restaurants, retail stores and other small businesses that had participated in the FTC webinar. It was co-sponsored by the American Association of Franchisees and Dealers, and the Coalition of Franchisee Associations, conducted the survey after a recent webinar with FTC Chair Lina Khan. The FTC is soliciting comments through June 8 about issues that affect franc

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped in June for the second consecutive month. The index dropped for the first time, after rising continuously for five months, in May. Baird/STR recorded a sharp fall of 19.3 percent in June, according to STR. The index dropped 5.8 percent in May. It went up 0.7 percent during April. It increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The index decreased 21.6 percent during the first six months of 2022. The Baird/STR Index fell behind both the S&P 500, dropped 8.4 percent from May and the MSCI US REIT Index, down 7.9 percent respectively during June. The hotel brand sub-index fell 19.3 percent from May, while the Hotel REIT sub-index dipped 19.5 percent during the month. "Hotel stocks continued on their downward trajectory in June and were significant relative under-performers as investors began to factor in an increasing likelihood of an impending recession," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "While the upcoming summer travel months are expected to be strong, investors are looking beyond the near-term fundamental strength to a period when demand and ADR growth are likely to moderate, which is supported by the many macroeconomic indicators that are flashing signs of broader slowing."