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THE DEMAND PREMIUM that extended-stay hotels have experienced over the past two years compared to other types of hotels is beginning to ebb, according to consulting firm The Highland Group. Also, ADR growth decelerated for the fourth consecutive month in July but remains higher than any other period before 2021. The overall hotel industry revenue recovery is now only one half a point greater than extended-stay hotels, according to the US Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: July 2022 report by the Highland Group. According to STR, all hotel room revenue was up 12.1 percent in July this year compared to last year. "For the first time in more than two years all three extended-stay segments reported a monthly decline in demand compared to the previous year. Demand declines in economy and mid-price segments, which were less than corresponding falls for all hotels in the same rate categories, are mainly correlated to strong growth in ADR. The upscale segment's demand decline is correlated to both increasing ADR and the contraction in supply," the report said.

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

APPROXIMATELY 51 PERCENT of hospitality industry professionals participating in STR's Hospitality Industry Sentiment survey expressed optimism about their business confidence over the next two years. Respondents rated their confidence at "8" or higher on a 10-point scale. Analyzing the results over the survey's first year reveals a gradual, consistent decline in confidence ratings for each time span. Meanwhile, global recession fears have diminished since the last survey, STR said. Among various industry challenges, "concerns regarding a potential recession" saw the most significant drop between the last two surveys, ranking third behind labor costs and supply issues. Energy and utility costs are slightly increasing, while supply chain challenges and group demand issues are gradually diminishing. Regarding hotel performance, outlined trends influence demand forecasting expectations, the survey said. The percentage of respondents anticipating "strong improvement" or "some improvement" is gradually declining across all three hotel demand segments. A majority of experts still foresee growth in both business transient and group demand.

ALL RECOVERY INDICES of U.S. extended-stay hotels were lower compared to 2019 in May than in April, according to hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. The demand for economy extended-stay hotels declined 1.3 percent for the second consecutive month in May compared to same period last year mainly due to sharp increase in ADR in last few months, the report said. The U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: May 2022 by The Highland Group said that the extended-stay room supply growth was just 1.9 percent during the month. It is the second successive month that the growth was below 2 percent since 2013, and the eighth consecutive month of 4 percent or lower supply growth. The report added that the supply increase will be well below pre-pandemic levels during the near term. According to STR, all hotel room revenue was up 43 percent in May 2022 compared to last year. "In May, mid-price and upscale extended-stay segments reported their lowest monthly change in demand in 2022. Except for February 2021, due to the leap year in 2020, economy extended-stay hotels reported only the second monthly fall in demand in 23 consecutive months," the report said. "Overall hotel occupancy gained more than extended-stay hotels in May compared to one year ago, decreasing extended-stay hotel's occupancy premium to 12 percentage points, and remains within its long-term average range."

U.S. HOTEL DEMAND declined by 0.5 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2023, according to CBRE. Simultaneously, there was a matching 0.5 percent increase in supply. The combined effect of these factors led to a 1 percent decrease in occupancy. ADR increased by 0.6 percent during the quarter, marking the slowest improvement since the pandemic recovery began 10 quarters ago, the CBRE data revealed. RevPAR decreased by 0.3 percent, as a modest decline in occupancy was partially offset by the rise in ADR. Despite sustained consumer spending, hotel demand and pricing power in Q3 were hampered by competition from alternative lodging sources like short-term rentals and cruise lines, along with an uptick in outbound international travel. According to the report, hotel wage growth in September outpaced the national average of 4.3 percent, registering at 4.7 percent, but declined from 7 percent at year-end 2022. Average hourly hotel wages fell nearly $10 below the national average, suggesting ongoing pressure for wage increases.

THE HOTEL INDUSTRY is poised for a fairly strong year in 2023 despite remaining concerns about a downturn, according to a pair of reports. Continuing demand is expected to overcome extra labor costs and economic vagaries to propel performance above pre-pandemic levels, according to the reports from the American Hotel & Lodging Association and STR. The state of the industry AHLA's 2023 State of the Hotel Industry Report projects that demand, nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue all are well on the way to recovery. Operational challenges, such as staffing shortages and economic factors will replace COVID as hoteliers' top concerns, the report predicts. "Three years after the unprecedented hardships our industry faced due to the pandemic, hotels continue to make significant strides toward recovery," said Chip Rogers, AHLA president and CEO. "2022 saw one of the strongest summer travel seasons ever, and this year we expect hotels to reach new heights in terms of room revenue, room-night demand and state and local tax revenue. But when inflation is taken into account, our industry likely won't see full recovery for several more years. Nevertheless, hotel performance is trending in the right direction - great news for our industry and our employees, who are enjoying better pay, more career opportunities, upward mobility and flexibility than ever before."

GOPPAR FOR U.S. hotels dropped in July but once again exceeded 2019 levels for the fourth consecutive month, according to STR. The summer peak still brought an increase in demand, but the cost of ramping up to meet that demand cut into profit margins. GOPPAR was $78.30 for the month, down from $91.23 reported in June. It was $88.63 in May and stood at $90.96 in April. EBITDA PAR was $55.29 for July, TRevPAR was $209.66 and labor costs per room were $67.27. "While each of the key bottom-line metrics decreased slightly from June on a per-available-room basis, total profits increased with peak summer room demand and revenues," said Raquel Ortiz, STR's director of financial performance. "Profit margins were stronger than July 2019 for both full- and limited-service hotels, but GOP margins were at lower levels than the previous four months. The dip in margins can be attributed to higher expenses associated with more ramped-up operations as well as the general rise in costs around the country. Rising wages are being somewhat balanced by hotels using more contract labor and reducing benefits costs."

DEMAND FOR U.S. extended-stay hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 was more than five times greater than supply, resulting in overall occupancy just below its 2019 peak, according to the Highland Group. December's monthly report from the group also showed the segment to be firmly in recovery. According to the research consulting firm's "U.S. Extended-stay Hotels: Fourth quarter 2021" report, the bottom up recovery continues with economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels in the fourth quarter posting record nominal average rate and RevPAR. Demand in the fourth quarter is at a record high and room revenues are almost 97 percent of their nominal high reached during the same period in 2019, the report said. Occupancy and ADR remain 4 to 5 percentage points off previous high levels but should pick up in the near term as the demand change was six times the corresponding change in supply, it added.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels registered an increase in occupancy and ADR in the first quarter of this year, according to hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. Record high demand, low supply growth and rising overall ADR are driving the strong performance. Economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels recovered RevPAR to their nominal 2019 values and the former is leading the recovery, the U.S. Extended-stay Hotels: First Quarter 2022 report said. However, the upscale extended-stay segment is lagging the overall recovery but reporting slightly better recovery performance as demand is at an all-time high, the report added. "There were 564,257 extended-stay hotel rooms open at the end of the first quarter. However, the 17,165 net gain in rooms open over the last year was the lowest annual increase since 2014, excluding 2020. Room nights available increased 3.1 percent over 2021, but supply growth dropped 50 percent from 2016 across all three segments," the report said.

CONSUMERS ARE EXPECTED to reprioritize travel in 2024, albeit with demand fluctuations for various products and amenities in 2024, according to Deloitte's 2024 Travel Outlook. The report says hospitality providers need to enhance the experiences they offer or risk losing travelers' attention and Those adept at applying technology to create personalized and flexible services will do better than others this year. The pent-up demand seen following the pandemic that led to travel surges in the prior two years is dwindling, the report said. It's being replaced, however, by a steady increase in traveling for experiences, aided in some cases by the increased prevalence of remote working, meaning travel remains a priority for many consumers. An economic downturn could dampen that enthusiasm, according to the Travel Outlook. However, technology can help provide the flexibility to offer affordable, personalized packages that may compensate for consumers' responding parsimony.

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MOST PERFORMANCE METRICS for extended-stay hotels in January trailed behind the overall hotel industry compared to the same month last year, according to The Highland Group. Weather likely influenced this, particularly due to the construction industry's significant contribution to extended-stay hotel demand, especially at lower price points. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, January witnessed geographically widespread record low temperatures in 2,500 counties. Additionally, there was large-scale flooding in Texas and Louisiana, marking it as the tenth wettest January on record. Extended-stay hotels have maintained strong annual demand over the past 25 years, excluding 2020, with rare monthly contractions during this period, the report said.

HOTELS IN THE Americas performed above 2019 levels, although RevPAR is stabilizing amidst decreasing consumer travel spending, according to real estate firm JLL. This has affected resort markets heavily dependent on leisure travel. In contrast, urban travel demand is on the rise, driven by group, corporate, and inbound international travel. According to JLL's Global Real Estate Perspective for February 2024, global hotel RevPAR surpassed 2019 levels by 11.7 percent in the first 11 months of 2023. The global urban market strengthened with increased international travel and the return of business and group demand. London, New York, and Tokyo are expected to lead global RevPAR performance in 2024 as urban travel rebounds. Stabilization has weighed heaviest in resort markets, particularly in the Americas and EMEA, while Asia-Pacific continues to accelerate as intraregional travel grows following border reopenings, the report added. Foreign capital, absent since the onset of COVID, is expected to become more active over the next 12 months. Middle Eastern and Asian investors are likely to lead, with urban markets in Europe and select U.S. cities as primary recipients of capital.

STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."

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THE U.S. HOTEL industry is on track to full recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to STR's latest industry forecast. Progress may be uneven, however, as some obstacles, such as labor costs, still remain. ADR will near full recovery in 2022, averaging $130 while occupancy for the year is predicted to reach 63.4 percent. RevPAR's average for the year is set to be $82,down 4 percent compared to 2019, but it is expected to be fully recovered in 2023, according to the forecast given at the 43rd Annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference. STR and Tourism Economics said changes in the nation's economy warranted the new forecast. "We have essentially moved up the top-line recovery timeline by one year, with the caveat that improved RevPAR projections are largely due to ADR," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "ADR has risen more rapidly than we expected-in some cases, that rise was due to strong demand confronting capacity constraints, which enabled solid revenue management, while in other cases, the rise was more influenced by inflation. When adjusted for inflation, RevPAR is further off the pace and will likely remain below 2019 levels until at least 2025. Other than the first quarter of 2021, demand has mostly adhered to the forecast with strong leisure travel, slowly improving group business and an expected progressive increase in international arrivals next year. Of course, these are all national projections of top-line performance. Recovery is not playing out the same across the marketplace, and as noted in our latest monthly P&L release, the cost of labor is adding pressure on the bottom line, which is a contributing factor to many hotels driving rate. Recovery is progressing at a solid rate no doubt, but there will still be plenty of ups and downs along the way."

IN RECENT WEEKS, CBRE Hotels Research has revised its forecast for the hospitality industry upward in light of several factors, such as rising occupancy levels, improvement in domestic travel and some opening in international travel. Recent developments, however, including the rise of the Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19, elevates the uncertainty level of those forecasts, but still the industry is expected to return to 2019 levels by the second half of 2023 rather than 2024. Hotel occupancy in the third quarter rose 35.1 percent over the previous year, according to CBRE's December 2021 edition of Hotel Horizons. ADR also saw gains, reaching 2019 nominal levels in the third quarter. "CBRE expects ADR will continue to exceed 2019 levels, followed by a demand recovery in early 2023," CBRE said in a statement. "Pent-up demand for leisure destinations, an increase in household personal savings and fewer constraints on availability compared with earlier in the pandemic contributed to the brisk pace of ADR recovery. The resumption of inbound international travel will help gateway markets regain occupancy in the coming year."

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U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels posted record high demand in January and monthly RevPAR was up by more than one third mainly due to record ADR growth during the period over 2021, according to hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. Occupancy extended-stay hotels also remained high in the month when compared to the overall hotel industry's long-term average. The supply growth of 3.5 percent in January further indicated that mid-price and upscale supply increases should be well below pre-pandemic levels during the near term, according to "U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: January 2022" report by Highland Group. It is the fourth consecutive month of 4 percent or lower supply growth. The report said that the overall hotel industry lost far more revenue than extended-stay hotels in 2020 and 2021, so it is now recovering revenue more quickly. Besides, overall hotel industry lost far more RevPAR than extended-stay hotels in 2020, its RevPAR growth in January this year compared to last year was considerably greater.